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Keys To The Game: Michigan Wolverines Football at Michigan State

It's rivalry week No. 1, and who would have guessed there'd be so much at stake?

Michigan was picked to finish fourth in the Big Ten East Division, Michigan State dead last, but both schools have exceeded expectations in a big way. They're both 7-0, having beaten ... well, a bunch of average to below-average teams along the way, if we're being honest.

In a lot of ways, this is the first 'huge' test for both teams, though U-M's wins at Wisconsin and Nebraska were probably the most impressive of the 14 combined (and nothing to sneeze at). The Wolverines have won the last two in East Lansing in dominant fashion and are anxious to atone for last year's game in which they decided to follow COVID-related fan protocol and not show up in a 27-24 loss.

"We were rolling last year, and we kind of looked past them a little bit," cornerback Vincent Gray said. "We’ll never look past them again."

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They can't this year, of course, and expect to compete. The Spartans were awful last year, and a dysfunctional Michigan team played below their level and never recovered. But head coach Jim Harbaugh has appeared to fix the culture, while MSU coach Mel Tucker raided the transfer portal to fix may of his team's deficiencies — primarily team speed and the absence of a Big Ten-capable running back.

Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III has been outstanding, and with quarterback Payton Thorne playing good ball, the Spartans present the most balanced offense U-M will have seen to date.

Here's what Michigan needs to accomplish Saturday to pull out a big road win and remain undefeated:

Michigan Wolverines football running back Hassan Haskins
Michigan Wolverines football running back Hassan Haskins has been U-M's top offensive player. (USA Today Sports Images)

Michigan Football Key: Limit Big Plays and Don't Give Up Easy Touchdowns

Easier said than done with a back like the 5-10, 210-pound Walker and a receiver like Jalen Nailor on the field. The 6-0, 190-pound Nailor has emerged as one of the Big Ten's best wideouts with 512 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 19 yards per reception. He can get behind corners with his speed and make the tough catches. Jayden Reed is right there with him — 562 yards, five scores and a 20.8-yard average.

This is a big-play offense, and they'll be going against many of the same faces in the Michigan secondary that Rocky Lombardi torched last year as MSU's quarterback (323 yards).

Fortunately, the Wolverines employ a different scheme under coordinator Mike Macdonald, one that will aim to confuse Thorne. Indiana and Nebraska made the MSU offense look rather pedestrian by eliminating big plays, with those defenses dominating for long stretches in 20-15 and 23-20 OT losses, respectively.

Eliminate the big plays with Walker in the run game and the passes over the top, and the Wolverines will have a great chance of winning. The Spartans are 107th out of 130 FBS schools in third-down conversions (34.19 percentage). Michigan's defense is 20th in allowing only 33.3 percent.

Get them there, and U-M could be in good shape.

Michigan Football Key: Win the 'Third Phase' And Hidden Yardage

Michigan's special teams are among the best in the nation in a number of categories, including coverage. They'll have to be at their best Saturday. Reed has two scores on punt return and is averaging 23.3 yards on nine returns. This would be a good day for redshirt junior punter Brad Robbins to have one of his better hang time outings.

Frosh A.J. Henning has given the Wolverines a boost in the return game, but he struggled at Nebraska in a hostile environment — he needs to be good — and kicker Jake Moody needs to get his kicks to the end zone. He was shorter last week, setting up a few return opportunities for Northwestern.

U-M needs to figure out a few things in kick return, too. They have an explosive option in Blake Corum but haven't been able to get him going the last several weeks with sketchy blocking in front of him. He's still 15th nationally at 26.6 yards per return.

Field position is going to be huge in this game. This is an area in which the Wolverines need an advantage.

Michigan Football Key: Stay With What's Been Working

Believe it or not, there's a segment of the fan base who believes Michigan's best chance to win this game is to give freshman J.J. McCarthy his first start. In that environment. In East Lansing.

We go back to 1999, the last time there was so much at stake for these two programs in a showdown, when a sophomore Drew Henson threw a pick at the start of the second half. The moment was too big for him, and it would seem ill-advised to see if it's right for McCarthy given how the Wolverines have been moving the ball with redshirt frosh Cade McNamara.

Yes, much of the success has come on the ground, but McNamara was cool and collected in checking into the right plays, etc., during a comeback at Nebraska, and he's played in hostile environments. He needs to be better, but we expect the Wolverines to stick with a heavy dose of the run game with perhaps some more play action sprinkled in.

That's how U-M has been winning this year. The line and the running backs have been the strength, and they've run it against better lines than Michigan State's, even when teams stacked the box.

Now, there can be variation in the run game, too, and they can throw in some screens, etc., they haven't shown before. Running a lot doesn't have to be 'predictable.' But to say U-M should 'open it up' because the Spartans have proven to be a bit suspect on the back end — no. Take your shots, but stay true to your identity.

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The Breakdown: Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan defensive line coach Shuan Nua probably summed it up best when talking about rivalry games Wednesday.

"Listen, I’ve been a part of a lot of rivalries — Holy War [BYU - Utah]; Army-Navy; here; the Desert Duel, Arizona State-Arizona. Outcome is how they can control their emotions, get their assignment done," he said.

That means no dumb extracurricular penalties, not getting caught up in the 'hatred' — keeping the opponent 'faceless,' as the coaches and players like to say, and just executing the game plan.

Michigan is the more talented football team, but MSU has some distinct advantages (wide receiver, for one). Better U-M teams have lost to much worse Michigan State teams, and emotion has almost always played a part.

This group plays as well as a 'team' as any of Harbaugh's Michigan squads, and we expect they'll be prepared. We expect a heck of a fight and a great game, but the Wolverines should have a great shot to win if they play a clean game.

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