Northwestern will be without top running back Jeremy Larkin now and in the future, his career ended by injury. It’s the passing game, though, that will continue to determine the team's success this year.
The Wildcats like to air it out, and they’ve had mixed success this year. Quarterback Clayton Thorson seems to have lost a gear due to his own injury, though he can still sling it. Losses to Duke and Akron have sullied what was a nice season-opening win at Purdue.
Here’s the thing about the Wildcats — they play extremely hard for head coach Pat Fitzgerald, and they always seem to play very disciplined on defense against the Wolverines. This is a program with a lot of pride, and though it will always have its ups and downs they do things the right way. Plus, it’s tough to win in their stadium's environment — that makes it dangerous on any given week.
Michigan, meanwhile, continues to improve in a number of areas, and this defense has championship potential. It’s about the offensive line, now and in every week to come.
Here’s what the Wolverines need to do to win Saturday’s game in Evanston:
Communicate on the back end: Northwestern is second in the country in pass attempts, airing it out 50 times a game, and 20th nationally in passing yards per game (307.3). At the same time, the Wildcats only manage 6.1 yards per passing attempt, which ranks 110th in the land.
This is a team that uses a short passing game as its running game, and that will probably be the case even more so now with Larkin out. Rub routes, slants … name it and you’ll see it Saturday, and that’s why it’s so important that the linebackers and defensive backs are on the same page. There was a defensive miscommunication on the first passing play against Notre Dame, for example, that changed the course of that game … those are things that will get you beat.
Coverage is going to have to be tightened Saturday — teams have thrown the slant successfully against U-M this year. Michigan has better athletes than the Wildcats’ receivers and should be able to stick with them. But it can get confusing when a quarterback is slinging it all over the yard, so they need to talk and make sure they’re where they need to be.
Use play action and exploit the Northwestern secondary: We know Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball, and so does everybody else. First-down play action worked particularly well a week ago — the Wolverines threw successfully on six first-down throws in the first half and ran eight times.
Per former U-M All-Big Ten offensive lineman Doug Skene, who breaks down the film for us each week on TheWolverine.com, this line is at its best when pass blocking out of play action.
One of the more overused clichés in sports is “pass to set up the run.” It’s way more complicated than that, folks. It’s about what the defense is giving, tendencies, strengths and weaknesses, and more. There was a third-and-eight play last week, for example, in which junior running back Tru Wilson picked up a first down on a big gain on a run/pass option — fans loved it because it worked.
This is a game we’d like to see junior Shea Patterson air it out 30-plus times. The Wildcats are vulnerable on the back end, and U- M has an advantage here … as long as the line does its job and protects like it needs to.
Own third down: Michigan continues to climb in the national rankings, is 29th in third downs converted on offense and 35th on conversions allowed. The Wildcats are 70th and 51st in those categories, respectively, one of the reasons for their struggles this year.
The Wolverines should be able to keep drives alive against this group and get off the field. At the very least, they need to do enough to win the field position battles throughout the game. Outstanding special teams coverage and the play of punter Will Hart and kickoff specialist Jake Moody will also play a part.
The Breakdown: Michigan has better athletes on both sides of the ball and seems to be going deeper into its playbook. The Wildcats, meanwhile, will be playing with a hobbled quarterback and minus their best running back against one of the nation’s top defenses — not a good combination.
This is a road game in that it’s not being played at Michigan Stadium, but half the crowd (at least) will be wearing maize and blue. U-M is a decided favorite for a reason.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 34, Northwestern 13
Michigan is starting to hit its stride, it seems ... but Northwestern has had a week off, and the Wildcats are no patsy like Nebraska. U-M pulls away in the second half.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 42, Northwestern 13
Northwestern’s a road game, but the savages reside elsewhere, and Michigan makes itself at home.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 31, Northwestern 10
Northwestern’s offense isn’t very good, and if Michigan’s defense is clicking again it could be a rout. Still, Northwestern always seems to find a way to hang in there, so it probably won’t get away from the Fighting Fitzgeralds too much.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Michigan 31, Northwestern 14
This isn’t a game Michigan is likely to dominate from start to finish (the way it did against Nebraska), but it is a contest the Wolverines should control and come out on top by double digits.
TheWolverine.com columnist Drew Hallett: Michigan 31, Northwestern 7
Unlike the last two Michigan-Northwestern contests in Evanston, there won't be any sliding field goal holders, #M00Ns or late-game drama this Saturday.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 38, Northwestern 10
This is not a red letter game that gives me reasons to be concerned.
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