It's Michigan football at Wisconsin in the biggest game for Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines since ...

Well, we'll let you fill in the blank here. Everyone seems to have his/her opinion on that one, but the bottom line in that discussion — there just haven't been enough wins in those important games, especially on the road.

In no way is this a 'shot' at Harbaugh. It's just a fact. U-M has not been good on the road since he arrived (or before, frankly, since the Lloyd Carr era — and even then it was getting dicey at the end).

Michigan has lost its championship edge in that respect, because that's where titles are won and lost — in towns like Madison, Columbus, State College, etc. — and the Wolverines just haven't won enough there.

RELATED: FOX Analyst Joel Klatt: Michigan Must Open Up Pass Game To Beat Wisconsin

RELATED: Michigan QBs Coach Matt Weiss On Cade McNamara: ‘We’re Thrilled With Him’

It's now been 16 years since Michigan last won a Big Ten title, and that needs to change. They'll be behind the eight ball if they drop Saturday's game against a very beatable Badgers team, one that's struggled to move the ball on the ground and has a quarterback who seems to 'value' the ball like it's a hot potato.

Nobody seems too sure how this one is going to go. Analysts are all over the map; the line has moved from Wisconsin -1.5 to Michigan -1 back to Wisconsin -2.5 (favorite) ... and we'll all find out Saturday who's right and what's what.

Here are keys to a week-five Michigan win:

We're assuming Plan 'A' is going to be to run the ball, something they did better than any team in the country through three games before Greg Schiano and Rutgers threw a few curve balls at them and stifled the Michigan offense in the second half. The Wolverines threw for only seven yards on five attempts in finishing with 42 yards total in the final 30 minutes.

While everyone wants to blame redshirt freshman quarterback Cade McNamara, it wasn't entirely his fault. He struggled in the half, of course, but offensive linemen were missing blocks and assignments, receivers dropped some balls and weren't getting great separation at times ...

And that all needs to change, because the Wolverines aren't going to run for 300-plus yards on this team. They need to keep them honest and get to about 150 or so to have a chance to move the ball, and then use a healthy dose of play action, go against tendency, etc. to put up yards against the nation's top defense against the run.

If it's more of the same — like last year's Penn State game, when they never challenged vertically in the passing game, or too run heavy like last week — it could be a long day.

They need some success through the air, but without getting too 'gimmicky,' too. This will be the biggest test for the Michigan offense this year, by far.

No, this is not the typical Wisconsin team that dominates people on the ground. Frankly, it wasn't last year, either, but it still put up 343 rushing yards against Michigan in a 49-11 blowout win.

Granted, there were players with injuries — Aidan Hutchinson, for one — but it was embarrassing. U-M's defensive line seems stouter, but they haven't faced a line this big and physical all year, even if this Badgers group isn't moving people like it has in the past. They're still averaging 4.33 yards per carry on the ground and 203.0 yards per game rushing (33rd nationally), however, and we still really don't know how good Michigan's interior defensive line really is.

We're about to find out. And if the Badgers get four or five yards per carry on every first down and allow quarterback Graham Mertz to get comfortable, it's going to be a long afternoon.

At the same time, the Wolverines have been soft in coverage on hitch routes. Rutgers exploited it for six or seven yards a pop in the second half last Saturday, and that would obviously be an issue, too. It's almost the exact opposite of U-M's press man under Don Brown that left the corners vulnerable.

These Badgers receivers aren't great. Michigan defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald needs to give them the appropriate amount of respect and prepare for a heavy dose of the tight end in the passing game if it comes to the point where the Badgers need to throw.

Harbaugh made it clear that his team needs to get off to a good start in order to beat the Badgers, something they haven't done in the last two meetings. Penalties, turnovers, poor special teams plays — any of that, and this one could get away from them.

McNamara is going to have to throw more this game, and he's had a handful of balls tipped at the line this year. The offensive line needs to create a solid pocket for him and prevent defensive linemen from getting too much penetration, or that's going to come into play. The Badgers have gotten home with stunts and twists on defense in three of the last four meetings, too — Rutgers had success with that twice in the second half last week — and that needs to be shored up.

Ball protection, good tackling, no missed assignments for easy scores — these are all 'musts' if Michigan expects to get out of Madison with a victory Saturday.

There's one thing we strongly believe about this Michigan team compared to the past few years — the 'want to,' chemistry and commitment to each other is much better. There have been 'me' guys on past teams, and last year was a disaster, but this group seems connected and all about the team.

They might well lose Saturday, but if they get down, we expect them to keep fighting.

There were rumblings from the Badgers' postgame locker room last year that the Wolverines were asking for mercy in the second quarter — clearly unacceptable, if true.

Forget what you think you know about this Wisconsin team. It's about match-ups, and they're still going to be a load on the lines. The defense is outstanding and well coached, especially against teams without elite playmakers in space — we expect U-M's yards on the ground will be hard to come by.

This is going to be a tough one to win on the road, but it's past time the Wolverines won one of these. It would be a great springboard for the remainder of the season if they can steal one.

We expect the Badgers to play like the desperate team they are. They're out of the Big Ten hunt with another conference loss, and they know it.

---

• Talk about this article inside The Fort

• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel

• Listen and subscribe to our podcast on iTunes

• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine

• Sign up for our daily newsletter and breaking news alerts

• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @Balas_Wolverine, @EJHolland_TW,
@JB_ Wolverine, @Clayton Sayfie and @DrewCHallett

• Like us on Facebook