Keys To the Game: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Over the last few decades the Michigan-Notre Dame series has had plenty of upsets, improbable comebacks and even a number of blowouts.

The unpredictable is what has made this series so interesting, starting this year with Michigan opening as a four-point favorite against a team that has looked much better over the last several weeks, including battling a strong Georgia team to the wire in a tough road environment.

The line is now even or most services even have the Fighting Irish favored by a point, and that seems more reasonable. ND has been much more consistent this season (since its opener with Louisville, anyway), and appears to be the better team on paper.

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That’s been the case a number of times in Ann Arbor, when the Irish going home with losses. They won both lines of scrimmage in 2013 but lost 41-30, quarterback Devin Gardner’s big day doing them in. Two years earlier they blew a 24-7 second-half lead (and a number of coverages) in allowing U-M to steal a 35-31 win, and quarterback Tate Forcier owned them in 2009.

In fact, 2005 was the last time ND won a game at Michigan, a 17-10 victory in which running back Mike Hart barely played due to injury.

Notre Dame’s administration, meanwhile, got the best of U-M’s when they agreed to resume the rivalry. The Irish played Michigan in the first game last year (and the second straight home game in the rivalry) and now face the Wolverines coming off a bye week in the middle of U-M’s Big Ten slate.

Makes no sense whatsoever.

But … it does make for some fun mid-season football. Here’s what Michigan has to do to come away with a win over the Fighting Irish:

Continue the recent success in the passing game: By recent success we mean “very recent.” The Wolverines played the last 2.5 quarters at Penn State like most expected them to play all year, senior quarterback Shea Patterson looking confident and comfortable, a veteran offensive line handling stunts and twists like they’d been there, done that … because, let’s face it — they have seen them before, many times over.

Last year’s line went into South Bend and was overwhelmed. Guys like left tackle Jon Runyan Jr. were playing their positions for the first time, and they blew assignments left and right. That made ends Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara look even better than they are (and make no mistake — they’re good. Kareem has 3.5 sacks in two of Notre Dame’s two biggest wins year, victories over USC and Virginia).

Patterson needs the time to throw like he had at Penn State, along with the same pocket presence he showed. Michigan’s receivers should have an advantage against a secondary whose safeties have struggled in coverage in recent weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have completed nearly 66 percent of their passes against the Irish secondary over the last three games.

U-M dropped five passes at Penn State — that also needs to be cleaned up. And we’ll say it again — lose the turnover battle, lose the game. It was only 1-0 at PSU, but it made a difference.

No “freebies” allowed on defense: Michigan has played well enough defensively to win the big games on the schedule over the last few years, with a couple of exceptions — the 62-39 loss at Ohio State last year and this year’s 35-14 blowout at Wisconsin.

The one thing it hasn’t been able to do against other very good opponents is limit the big plays for scores that would allow them to steal a game. In last year’s loss at Notre Dame, for example, the defense played well enough to win what was eventually a 24-17 contest. The Irish offense did next to nothing after a few big plays in the first half, at least one of which shouldn’t have happened — Chris Finke’s 43-yard touchdown reception over a safety in position to make a play, probably even a pick.

That’s happened too often, however, to call it a fluke. The guys in the secondary wear the “big sombreros,” Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said, because there’s a lot of pressure on them to make plays. One mistake in this defense and it’s a touchdown, not just a big gainer (as we saw when the safeties missed a coverage and gifted PSU’s KJ Hamler his second score, a TD that made it 28-14 in the fourth quarter).

And you can be sure Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly will be looking to exploit any wide receiver vs. safety one-on-ones like we saw Penn State do with Hamler.

Those “freebies” can’t happen if U-M expects to win this game. Notre Dame is middle of the pack (58th nationally) in passing plays over 40 yards, for example (five). Michigan has to make quarterback Ian Book and Co. earn everything they get.

Make the rushing battle a stalemate ... or at least close: This is going to be a difficult task given how Notre Dame running back Tony Jones Jr. has played over his last several games. Jones is averaging 7.0 yards per carry this year behind a good offensive line, including 176 yards in a win over USC and 131 on only 18 carries against a Virginia team that was allowing only 65 yards on the ground going in to the tilt.

Michigan’s run defense has been very good since the Wisconsin debacle (359 yards allowed on the ground), including only one yard surrendered against Iowa. This will be its biggest test since the disaster against the Badgers.

U-M’s running game, meanwhile, has improved dramatically over the last few games, including a 141-yard performance at Penn State, but this is still a work in progress. There are only 13 teams in the country with a worse yards per carry average than Michigan’s 3.96.

The Wolverines need freshman Zach Charbonnet to play well (and play a lot) in this game. He’s the only one capable of ripping off yardage against a fast defensive football team.

This is a tough one to figure out, for a number of reasons. First off, will the Wolverines show the same effort they showed in the last 2.5 quarters at Penn State, when they rallied furiously and dominated in stretches? In this day and age of the College Football Playoff and the “all or nothing” mentality, U-M is essentially playing for pride.

In the past, having three rivals on the schedule (all at home) would have been more than enough, regardless how many games they lost. Now, however, they’ve got to get back off the mat for an October game against a rival whose playoff hopes are still alive.

Advantage: Irish.

And while Michigan seemed to finally put it together offensively at Penn State, was that a sign of things to come or just fool’s gold?

We’re about to find out.

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