Michigan’s football players did everything right in preparation for the 2020 season, protecting themselves from COVID-19 concerns by social distancing and putting in hours in the weight room just in case the Big Ten switched course and allowed them to play.
The August postponement didn’t take the wind out of their sails, but the 1-2 start certainly has. In an unfathomable two-game stretch, the Wolverines have gone from dark horse Big Ten contenders to battling to stay out of the Big Ten East Division basement … and it’s not about to get any easier.
There’s not a game on the schedule the Wolverines can’t lose, and it starts Saturday night with Wisconsin. Due to a COVID outbreak in Madison, the Badgers have played only one game and will likely be rusty, but they appear — at least based on one game, a blowout win over Illinois Oct. 23 — to have reloaded behind big, physical lines and a gunslinging quarterback in redshirt freshman Graham Mertz, who may or may not play Saturday.
Mertz is still in COVID protocol from three weeks ago, and he entered the season as the Badgers' No. 2 quarterback. He then set records in shredding the Illini and looks like a future star.
Even if he can’t go, the Wolverines will have their hands full. Here’s what they need to do to stop the bleeding and pull out a win Saturday night in Ann Arbor:
Michigan Football Key: Slow The Wisconsin Running Game
There’s no Jonathan Taylor here — the two-time Doak Walker Award winner (as the nation’s top collegiate back) has moved on to the NFL — but the Badgers’ running game success usually starts with its mammoth offensive line. We don’t know who’s playing or not Saturday night given the large number of players affected by COVID-19, but we do know they’ll have a significant size advantage over the Wolverines, no matter who plays.
The Badgers have a system, and while there’s no elite back — Nakia Watson managed 62 yards on 19 carries against the Illini, only 3.3 per attempt with a long of eight, and Garrett Groshek 70 yards on 5.4 per rush — they wear you down as the game goes along.
It doesn’t take explosive plays in this offense to keep a team off balance. Four yards on first down is enough to keep a defense guessing, especially with a quarterback who can make all the throws. Mertz was 20-of-21 passing for 248 yards and five touchdowns in his debut, and while some will say it was “just Illinois,” Michigan’s pass defense has been one of the worst in the Big Ten, to date.
Which brings us to key No. 2 …
Michigan Football Key: Limit The Big Plays In The Passing Game
Notice we didn’t say “eliminate.” That doesn’t seem realistic at this point.
The Wolverines are 13th in the Big Ten for passing defense after three weeks, having allowed 287.3 yards per game, and were even skewered by an awful Michigan State team for 323 yards through the air. The corners aren’t being put in position to succeed, and the ball has gone over their heads frequently in all three games.
“Their pass defense is very porous,” former Ohio State head coach and current FOX analyst Urban Meyer told Big Ten Network Monday. "They’re not in position to make plays down the field. You saw Michigan State, who couldn’t score a touchdown against Iowa the following week, throw it all over the field on the Wolverines.
“And this past week, I’m sitting there, like probably most of the country, almost in awe of what Indiana was doing.”
Or in awe of how bad U-M’s defense was.
If Mertz plays, it’s going to take a better effort up front in getting to the quarterback to help protect the secondary. U-M is ninth in the Big Ten with just five sacks — and all of them came in week one against a revamped Minnesota line. They need to be better Saturday to have any shot, and the corners and safeties simply can’t let the ball go over their heads.
Michigan Football Key: Have More Success On First And Second Downs
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton has been solid through three games, having thrown for 300-plus yards twice despite not getting much help from his running game. The Wolverines rushed for only 13 net yards in last week’s 38-21 loss to Indiana and have been in way too many third-and-longs. They were in second-and-long on 17 of 28 plays against Michigan State the previous week, too.
The Wolverines rank 70th nationally in third-down percentage at 38.89 percent, and there have been far too many bad down-and-distance situations. U-M has allowed 14 tackles for loss through three games, and many of them have been the result of missed assignments, including the tone-setting five-yard loss on the first running play against Michigan State.
The Breakdown: Michigan Wolverines Football vs. Wisconsin
Michigan has looked lethargic and unconfident since an opening night win at Minnesota Oct. 24, a 49-24 victory that’s looking more and more like a mirage. Injuries up front to the offensive line, dropped passes and lack of a consistent running game have plagued the Wolverines on one side of the ball, but the defense has been even more of a concern.
That doesn’t seem set to change anytime soon, especially in the secondary where redshirt sophomore corner Vincent Gray, especially, has struggled.
“It has to be fundamentals. You have to play the football,” Meyer said. “And when you start seeing Indiana and Michigan State just light them up down the field, throwing the ball for over 300 yards in each game, that’s very alarming.”
That’s only one facet that’s concerning. The biggest is the absence of fire and “want to,” and while head coach Jim Harbaugh has said he likes the team’s effort, it’s been questionable. There’s playing hard, and then there’s going all-out every down with great focus and intensity.
We haven’t seen that for two weeks now. If we don’t see it Saturday night, the Wolverines are going to get smoked in their own (empty) stadium.
This is their last chance to get some of their dignity back and flip the script on the season. We’ll find out how badly they want it.
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