The season is essentially on the line for Michigan in terms of any championship hopes, and the daunting task of running the table starts with a game at No. 2 Penn State.
It’s a night game and a white-out against a motivated team, one that got destroyed last year in a 49-10 loss in Ann Arbor. The Nittany Lions’ turnaround since then, to Big Ten champions last year and now the second-ranked team in the country, has been remarkable. Few would have guessed that U-M would enter this year’s tilt as a 9.5-point underdog, but that’s where the line stands Thursday.
That doesn’t sit well with this Michigan team, cornerbacks coach Mike Zordich (a former Nittany Lions player) said, especially after U-M fell two spots in the polls after a win at Indiana.
“I can understand their frustration,” he said. “They’re part of a really good defense nationally, and they see that they win a game, a lot of teams ahead of us lose a game and we go backwards. I can see a little chip on their shoulder, absolutely.”
He also sees that they know the implications of the task at hand.
“They understand it’s a big game,” he said. “Coming off the field [Tuesday after practice], on TV they were advertising Michigan versus Penn State, 7:30, a white-out. They know it.
“That’s what’s kind of nice. It’s built in. Hopefully it will help in our preparation.”
Here are Michigan’s keys to a victory in Happy Valley Saturday night:
Run the ball effectively: This is where it all starts, and it’s not going to be easy. Penn State will stack the box and dare fifth-year senior John O’Korn to try to beat them … and that won’t be simple, either.
The good news: Michigan ran the ball for 271 yards against a solid Indiana defense despite the absence of a passing game, and it was a group effort. Junior Karan Higdon showed great vision at times in bouncing it outside, but there was room to run between the tackles, too.
The bad news: PSU is going to be harder to run on, and tougher to move the ball on in general. Opponents have only made it to the red zone 10 times against this defense all year.
Necessary improvement also includes selling play action better when they are running the ball well. O’Korn wasn’t fooling the Hoosiers with his fakes, and that could have opened up at least a bit more room.
Hit on some bigger plays: They don’t even have to be huge plays, though it could well take a long throw and catch or a punt/kick return for touchdown to win this one.
Michigan’s receivers have had trouble getting separation, and O’Korn has had difficulty finding them when they do. O’Korn overthrew freshman Donovan Peoples-Jones on what would have been a score at Indiana … he needs to make that play Saturday night.
U-M had one — one — completion that traveled over nine yards through the air at IU, and that was by accident, when O’Korn was running for his life and threw into traffic for 17 yards to Peoples-Jones. The Wolverines will not be able to dink and dunk their way to scores against PSU. They’ll need to have at least a little success downfield … not an easy task.
Limit Penn State’s playmakers and make the Nittany Lions’ offense drive the field: Indiana did this against PSU in the running game, limiting Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries. His long run was only eight yards, and he actually had negative yardage at halftime.
Where the Hoosiers failed against Penn State was in pass defense. Barkley had a 36-yard reception, and the PSU receivers had a field day, led by DaeSean Hamilton’s nine catches for 122 yards and three touchdowns. Even then, it was Barkley’s kickoff return for touchdown to open the game and two turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown early, that gave Penn State a cushion.
The Wolverines need to make PSU earn everything they get. Any gifts like those the Hoosiers surrendered is a recipe for a loss.
The Breakdown: This is a winnable game for the Wolverines, just as every one is because of the stifling defense. The Nittany Lions are obviously playing with much more confidence since last year’s 49-10 beating in Ann Arbor, but their offensive line is suspect. U-M’s defense will be the best unit on the field, and if the offense can score a few times, Michigan could win this game.
It will probably take a few breaks, but stranger things have happened. Heck, we saw it only two weeks ago in Ann Arbor when U-M dropped a 14-10 game to Michigan State.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Penn State 23, Michigan 16
The fact that this seems kind of high scoring is indicative of just how much Michigan has struggled offensively this year.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Penn State 20, Michigan 13
Penn State has had this one circled for a year, and Michigan is struggling to score.
(Bonus pick: Michigan 24, Ohio State 20)
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Penn State 24, Michigan 13
Michigan will hang around because of that defense, but Penn State just has too much working in its favor this weekend.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Penn State 17, Michigan 10
Michigan’s defense does its job and holds Penn State in check, but the Wolverine offense doesn’t make enough plays to come out on top.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Andrew Vailliencourt: Penn State 17, Michigan 13
Michigan’s defense is fired up and plays one of its best games of the season. The problem — the offense isn’t able to do enough. A costly turnover allows Penn State to get the win in a close one.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Penn State 20, Michigan 13
Let’s hope the passing attack dramatically improves this week and the defense plays its best of the year. Hope isn’t enough to make me feel different from what I’ve seen, though.
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