No. 2 Michigan Wolverines basketball (18-1, 13-1 Big Ten) is set to host the No. 4-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (18-6, 14-4 Big Ten) Tuesday night with a championship on the line.
The Maize and Blue need just one win or one Illinois loss to guarantee it will have the top winning percentage in league play — which would give them the Big Ten regular-season title, assuming the leagues decides is champion based on that metric.
Michigan has won seven straight games, including wins over top-10 Ohio State and Iowa last week, in addition to a triumph at Indiana Saturday. Illinois has won two straight contests and nine of 10, but will likely be without star junior guard Ayo Dosunmu, a contender for National Player of the Year honors, due to a broken nose he suffered in a loss to Michigan State last week and forced him to miss tilts with Nebraska and Wisconsin.
A 20-point-per-game scorer and the Big Ten's leading assist man, Dosunmu will be sorely missed if he in fact can't play. He hit the game-winner at Crisler Center a year ago and, as the team's most used offensive player, takes this Illini team from good to very good. Former Michigan head coach and current Big Ten Network analyst John Beilein breaks down everything Dosunmu does for the Illini in the video below.
Illinois' offensive strategy — especially without Dosunmu — revolves around getting the ball down low to sophomore center Kofi Cockburn, who averages 17.7 points and 9.9 boards per game, and in the paint in general. The Illini offense, which ranks 10th nationally in efficiency, score 54.3 percent of their points from two-point range (second in the Big Ten during league play) and rank first in the conference with a two-point field goal percentage of 54.9 in conference games. They do shoot a nice clip (38.1 percent) from three, but have shot the second fewest triples out of any Big Ten team.
Michigan's defense ranks fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. Freshman center Hunter Dickinson (7-foot-1) has held Iowa's Luka Garza and Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis to a combined 9-of-31 from the field in back-to-back games. All eyes will be on the Dickinson-Cockburn matchup.
Michigan's offensive success, which ranks fifth nationally in efficiency, is predicated largely on its balance, and that was shown in the last game at Indiana, with the Wolverines having four players that poured in 13 or more points. Sophomore wing Franz Wagner, who has scored 20 or more in three of his last four games and is shooting the three at a 50-percent clip over his last five, is heating up at the right time.
Illinois' defense, which ranks just behind Michigan as the second-best among Big Ten teams, prides itself on not allowing anything easy around the rim, evidenced by allowing opponents to shoot just 45.1 percent from inside the arc.
Below is everything you need to know ahead of the game, including notes on every significant player, key statistics, a Q&A with Brad Sturdy of Orange & Blue News.
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Michigan Wolverines Basketball vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: What Time Is The Game? What Is The Betting Line? How To Watch / Stream, More
Date: Tuesday, March 2, 2021
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
Channel: ESPN (Stream: ESPN App)
On The Call: Dan Shulman (play-by-play) & Jay Bilas (analyst)
Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)
On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) & Terry Mills (analyst)
Line: Michigan -8
Over/Under: 147
KenPom Prediction: Michigan 78, Illinois 71
Clayton Sayfie Prediction: Michigan 80, Illinois 70
Michigan Wolverines Projected Lineup
#12 - Fifth-year senior guard Mike Smith (5-11, 185) — The Columbia grad transfer is averaging 8.7 points and 5.2 assists per game (second in the Big Ten), while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 47.8 percent from deep (20th in the country) ... His three-point shooting clip of 58.8 percent in league play tops the conference.
#55 - Senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — Posting 8.7 points, 3.1 assists and 3.1 rebounds per contest ... Shoots 39.2 percent from the field and 33.4 percent from long range ... Is considered Michigan's best on-ball defender.
#21 - Sophomore guard Franz Wagner (6-9, 220) — Has scored 20-or-more points in three of his last four games ... Averaging 13.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game, while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor ... Shooting the three at 37.1 percent for the season and 50 percent over his last five outings ... His two-point field goal percentage of 63.9 percent in league play ranks third in the Big Ten ... Has the 28th-highest offensive rating in the country (127.8).
#2 - Senior forward Isaiah Livers (6-7, 230) — Second on the team in scoring with 14.5 points per game ... Also adds 6.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contest, while shooting 48.2 percent overall and 45.6 percent from three ... Draining 44.7 percent of his shots from deep during the Big Ten season, which checks in fourth among conference players ... Has the 32nd-highest offensive rating in the country (126.9).
#1 - Freshman center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 255) — Checks in third on Kenpom's national player of the year rankings ... Leads the team in scoring with 14.8 points per game, and adds 7.8 rebounds (leads the squad) per night, while shooting 62.1 percent from the field ... His two-point field goal percentage of 60.4 percent during league play ranks seventh in the Big Ten ... Blocks 1.6 shots per game, which is third in the conference.
Key Bench Players
#15 - Senior guard Chaundee Brown (6-5, 215) — Averaging 8.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per game off the bench in 19.7 minutes ... Is connecting on 47.2 percent of his overall looks and 39.7 percent of his attempts from deep ... Averages almost one offensive rebound per game.
#23 - Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Plays the four and five spot off the bench ... Averages 3.9 points and 2.2 rebounds per contest in 10.4 minutes and is shooting 53.8 percent from the field.
55 - Fifth-year senior forward Austin Davis (6-10, 250) — Averaging 5.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game in 11.6 minutes of work ... Shooting 67.3 percent from the field.
Illinois Fighting Illini Projected Lineup
#1 - Senior guard Trent Frazier (6-2, 175) — Is third on the team in scoring with 10.4 points per game, while also adding three rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest ... Shoots 40.8 percent from the field and 38.7 percent from long range ... Averages 1.4 steals per game.
#44 - Freshman guard Adam Miller (6-3, 180) — Posts 8.5 points and 2.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 38.6 percent overall and 33.9 percent from beyond the arc.