Published Jan 6, 2021
Michigan vs. Minnesota Preview, Lineup Breakdown, Prediction & More
Clayton Sayfie  •  Maize&BlueReview
Staff Writer
Twitter
@CSayf23

No. 10 Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to host No. 16 Minnesota in a Wednesday night showdown at Crisler Center.

The Wolverines are undefeated thus far at 9-0 and 4-0 in league play, and are fresh off wins over Maryland and ranked Northwestern. Michigan has been hot to start the year behind its efficient offense, which ranks seventh nationally, but it's been the defense that has impressed of late, shutting down the Terps' attack in the second half and stifling the Wildcats all night long.

Minnesota is 10-2 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play, with losses to Illinois and Wisconsin and wins over Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. The Gophers knocked off the Buckeyes in blowout fashion, 77-60, Sunday.

Minnesota shoots a dismal 42.3 percent from the field (245th in the country), but is still a highly efficient team on offense, ranking 17th nationally on Kenpom. The Gophers turn the ball over just 15.2 percent of their possessions (19th in the country) and play at a fast tempo (45th). On the other end, they defend the three-ball well while playing only man-to-man, allowing opponents to connect on just 30.9 percent of their looks from deep.

The headliner for Minnesota is redshirt junior point guard Marcus Carr, who is a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end, averaging 22.1 points, 5.9 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game, while having the highest offensive usage rate on the team. He ranks No. 9 on Kenpom's list of top college basketball players and primarily uses the ball screen offense to free himself up.

While Carr has been outstanding, so has junior center Liam Robbins, the reigning Big Ten Player of the Week. The seven-footer is averaging 14.2 points and a team-high 7.6 boards per game, while shooting 49.5 percent from the field. He's also averaging 2.8 blocks per game, and is a physical defender in the paint, changing looks when he doesn't get at least a finger on the ball.

Michigan freshman center Hunter Dickinson, the current Big Ten Freshman of the Week for the fourth time already this season, will have his hands full going against Robbins. Dickinson is shooting 71.8 percent from the field this year, which ranks at No. 6 in the country and first in the league. However, he hasn't faced an opposing big man with the defensive prowess of Robbins.

Wolverines' sophomore wing Franz Wagner is also shining as of late, especially offensively. After a slow start to the year scoring the ball, Wagner has poured in 20, 19 and 14 points in his last three outings, respectively.

Below is everything you need to know ahead of the game, including a breakdown of each team's lineup, key statistics, a Q&A with Connor Stevens of The Gopher Report and more.

Michigan Wolverines Basketball vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers: What Time Is The Game? What Is The Betting Line? How To Watch / Stream, More

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021

Time: 8:37 p.m. ET

Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

Channel: Big Ten Network (Stream: Fox Sports App)

On The Call: Kevin Kugler (play-by-play) & Stephen Bardo (analyst)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) & Terry Mills (analyst)

Line: Michigan -7.5

Over/Under: 152

KenPom Prediction: Michigan 78, Minnesota 73

Clayton Sayfie Prediction: Michigan 78, Minnesota 67

Michigan Wolverines Projected Lineup

#12 - Fifth-year senior guard Mike Smith (5-11, 185) — The Columbia grad transfer is averaging 8.7 points and 5.3 assists per game, while shooting 40.9 percent from deep and 49.1 percent overall.

#55 - Senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — Is the team's best perimeter defender ... Averaging 9.9 points, 3.8 assists and 2.4 rebounds per contest ... Shoots 43.1 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from long range ... Went 4-of-5 from deep against Northwestern.

#21 - Sophomore guard Franz Wagner (6-9, 220) — Averaging 12.2 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, while shooting 51.3 percent from the floor ... Shooting the three at 32.3 percent for the season.

#2 - Senior forward Isaiah Livers (6-7, 230) — Is second on the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game.. Also adds 5.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists per contest, while shooting 48.8 percent overall and 40.4 percent from three.

#1 - Freshman center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 255) — The first-year star is averaging a team-high 16.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 71.8 percent from the field.

Key Bench Players

#15 - Senior guard Chaundee Brown (6-5, 215) — Averaging 9.7 points and 3.6 rebounds per game off the bench in 19.8 minutes ... Is connecting on 49.3 percent of his overall looks and 39.5 percent of his attempts from deep.

#23 - Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — Plays the four and five spot off the bench ... Averages 4.4 points and 2.4 rebounds per contest and is shooting 68.2 percent from the field and is 2-for-4 from deep on the year.

#5 - Freshman forward Terrance Williams (6-7, 240) — Plays 9.8 minutes per game off the bench, averaging 2.6 and 3.3 boards per game, while shooting 40 percent from the floor.

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Minnesota Golden Gophers Projected Lineup

#5 - Redshirt junior point guard Marcus Carr (6-2, 195) — Leads the team and is third in the Big Ten in points per game, with 22.1 ... Adds 5.9 assists and 4.1 rebounds per contest, and shoots 44.8 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from long range.

#22 - Junior guard Gabe Kalscheur (6-4, 200) — Scores 10.1 points per game and posts two assists and 2.9 rebounds per outing, while shooting 31.2 percent overall and knocking down 23.4 percent of his threes ... Is a volume shooter from deep (15 makes on 64 attempts this season).

#11 - Junior guard Both Gach (6-6, 185) — Is notching 11 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists per night, while shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 35.9 percent on three-pointers.

#23 - Fifth-year senior forward Brandon Johnson (6-8, 220) — Averages 8.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, while connecting on 48.3 percent of his looks overall and 42.3 percent of his threes.

#0 - Junior center Liam Robbins (7-0, 235) — The Drake center is the reigning national and Big Ten Player of the Week ... Averages 14.2 points and a team-high 7.6 boards per game, while shooting 49.5 percent from the field ... Can also step out and shoot the long ball (8-of-25 for the season).

Key Bench Players

#4 - Freshman guard Jamal Mashburn Jr. (6-2, 175) — Sees 15.6 minutes per game off the bench as the backup point and shooting guard ... Averages five points, 1.3 assists and 1.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 33.3 percent from the field and 24 percent from three ... Hit both of his long ball attempts against Ohio State.

#35 - Sophomore forward Isaiah Ihnen (6-9, 220) — Plays 15.6 minutes per game, primarily at the power forward spot ... Averages 2.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, while shooting only 27 percent and 20 percent from three.

#24 - Fifth-year senior forward Eric Curry (6-9, 240) — Plays 13.3 minutes per game as the backup big man to Robbins ... Averages 4.2 points and 2.1 boards per outing, while shooting 52.9 percent from the field ... Has made 2 of his 6 attempts from three-point range.

Team Statistics
CategoryMichiganMinnesota

PPG

82.6

81.6

Opp. PPG

68.1

72.5

FG%

52.0

42.3

Opp. FG%

38.1

40.1

3FG%

36.2

30.9

Opp. 3FG%

36.1

30.9

Turnovers per game

12.9

11.3

Kenpom Adjusted Efficiency Ratings
There are 357 teams in Division I
CategoryMichiganMinnesota

Overall

10th

21st

Offense

7th

17th

Defense

28th

37th

Tempo

211th

45th

Q&A With Connor Stevens Of The Gopher Report

The Wolverine: How would you assess junior center Liam Robbins as a defender so far this season? His play overall?

Stevens: It took a little bit of time for Liam Robbins to settle into his role as the anchor of the Gophers defense. To start the season, you could tell he was either a little bit nervous, or just unsure about how to play in a lineup with all new faces. The Gophers only returned two starters, and added three transfers (Robbins being one of them), so it took some time as expected for him to get comfortable. He would foul early and often, making him play less than 10 minutes in the first half.

Once Big Ten play started, you could tell he was settling into his role and was getting a better understanding about how to play with his teammates in terms of positioning, how to play screens, when to help, etc. I would say that has been the biggest improvement so far. He's not as late anymore on help defense, and that has helped him become the Big Ten leader in blocked shots at 2.8 per game, and 3.2 per game in conference play. According to KenPom, his 10.5 block rate is good for 30th in the country and has risen the past few weeks. This is a much better defensive team when he's in the game, and scoring at the rim is much tougher when he's off the court. It's early, obviously, but he's doing his best to make a case for Big Ten DPOY.

On offense, a little bit of the same is true in terms of how long it took him to settle in and learn how to play with his teammates. He was missing close chances at the rim, it looked like he was rushing to get the ball off at times. After a few duds against North Dakota and Loyola Marymount, he's been great on offense, especially when he's been able to play more than 20 minutes in a game. His past seven he's scored double-digits, and twice he's scored 27. He'll step out and hit the occasional three, and is usually good for one per game (watch to see if he takes one on the first possession, that's been a trend lately). Replacing Daniel Oturu on both ends of the court was always going to be impossible, but Liam Robbins has stepped in and made it more than manageable for Minnesota.

The Wolverine: Is it fair to say redshirt junior guard Marcus Carr makes this team go?

Stevens: That is definitely a fair statement to make. This team as a whole has gotten it together in the past few games, but early in the season they were going to go wherever Marcus Carr took them. He's scored double-digits in every game this season. He has three 30-point or more performances, and two came against a St. Louis team that is now ranked, and a top-10 Iowa team. In those games, they needed every single point Marcus Carr had in him to pull out the victories. He's been the guy to get things going when there's nothing there, and he's been the guy to hit clutch shots for them. Against Iowa he hit two three's to make it a three point game, then tie it up before the buzzer before their overtime win, and against Loyola Marymount he ended the game with a stepback three. He's not only one of the better point guards in the country, but it would be hard to find anyone with more clutch moments in the past few years than Marcus Carr.

While he's been a dynamic scorer, he's also a great passer that is averaging just under six assists a game. The biggest danger for Minnesota is when the ball stops moving. Carr will make this team go, and he will also make this team stop at times. If you watched the pitiful road performance against Illinois, and their poor offensive showing against Wisconsin, a lot of that had to do with Minnesota just going with a high ball-screen to Carr and watching him dribble for 20+ seconds of a possession looking for his shot. He deserves those types of possessions at times, but this team really struggles on offense when that has been the go-to look.

Coach Richard Pitino has done a very good job making adjustments when that's the case, but it's shown up on their small sample size of road performances. If Michigan fans want to gauge how well their defense is playing, a good indicator is if Carr is overdribbling or not. If he is, it's usually a good sign for Minnesota's opponent. If he's not, the Minnesota offense is probably having a good day.

The Wolverine: Are you surprised by the great start Minnesota is off to in Big Ten play? What is the biggest reason for the success?

Stevens: I'm not too surprised. I expected them to outperform expectations after looking at their roster, and I don't believe people on the outside looking in realized the impact that transfers Liam Robbins, Both Gach, and Brandon Johnson could have on this team. What does surprise me, is how well they've played despite the mediocre play they've gotten lately from Both Gach and Gabe Kalscheur. Both of them have been playing far below their potential for a majority of the season, but they've been able to lean on Marcus Carr and Liam Robbins strong play to carry them to a 10-2 record. That's what's scary about this team in my opinion, a lot of their major contributors haven't played well.

I think the ceiling is even higher. This could be a Sweet-16 team if things click, then who knows. Both Gach was a guy that entered the draft process before transferring to Minnesota, and he's really struggled to get himself going in conference play. Gabe Kalscheur shot over 40 percent from three as a freshman, and he was under 20 percent from deep until the last few games. Kalscheur has now hit three from beyond the arc in consecutive games, and I can tell you the last thing opposing coaches want to see is him get hot. There are still serious questions that he'll be able to maintain his stroke, but Gopher fans are optimistic.

The Wolverine: Finish this sentence: Minnesota wins if ______.

Stevens: They get contributions from Kalscheur, Gach, and Jamal Mashburn Jr.

I said it before, Michigan is going to have a really good game plan. The job of the three mentioned above needs to be to score and create enough offense that Michigan can't afford to just completely double Carr on ball-screens, and give heavy help to whoever is defending Robbins in the post. If those three guys can knock down their shots, Minnesota is a pretty good defensive team, and allows Carr to not be completely hounded by hard hedges and ball-screen traps, then Minnesota has a solid chance of success in any game this season.

The Wolverine: Score prediction and how you think the game plays out.

Stevens: I think Minnesota figures things out on the road and takes major steps away from Williams Arena. They put up two clunkers on offense against Illinois and Wisconsin that were never really close games at any point in the second half. That being said, I think they need to lose a competitive game on the road before getting over the hump and actually pulling off a victory. I expect a much improved offensive performance, but I think Michigan comes out on top in a close one.

Michigan 72, Minnesota 68

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