Previewing Illinois With A Fighting Illini Insider

Doug Bucshon of Orange & Blue News was kind enough to swing by TheWolverine.com to break down Illinois' football team heading into its weekend showdown with Michigan in Champaign.

Bucshon analyzed the Illini's strengths and weaknesses, and also provided a prediction on how he thinks Saturday's game will play out.

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• Redshirt freshman QB Matt Robinson — Bucshon revealed that redshirt junior quarterback Brandon Peters is "likely out" for this game after getting hurt last week at Minnesota, forcing Robinson into the starting role. The youngster has only completed 16 of 32 throws for 156 yards on the year, has yet to throw a touchdown or an interception, and has been sacked four times.

• Fifth-year senior RB Reggie Corbin — He is the Illini's best offensive player, with his 95.5 rushing yards per game checking in fourth in the Big Ten. Corbin has been one of the few bright spots for Illinois' team this season, averaging 6.6 yards per carry and already eclipsing 133 yards on two separate occasions (134 against Nebraska and 144 versus Eastern Michigan).

• Redshirt junior WR Josh Imatorbhebhe — The USC transfer has immediately stepped in to lead the club in both receiving yards (220) and touchdown grabs (four), while checking in third in catches (15). In fact, Imatorbhebhe's four scoring receptions are tied for the second most in the Big Ten, with half of them coming in the 31-23 win at Connecticut Sept. 7.

• Junior WR Ricky Smalling — His 33 catches, 406 receiving yards and five touchdown grabs all paced the team last year, and although he leads the club once again in receptions (22), his 206 yards are second to Imatorbhebhe and his lone scoring catch is tied for third on the roster. Smalling has yet to compile more than 56 receiving yards in a game this year, but he has had at least 41 in four of Illinois' five outings.

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• Redshirt junior WR Trevon Sidney — Like Imatorbhebhe, Sidney also transferred in from USC after spending his first three collegiate years in Los Angeles. His 16 receptions are the second most on the team, though his 123 yards check in fourth and his 7.7 yards per reception ninth.

• Sophomore TE Daniel Barker — He hauled in nine catches for 84 yards last season as a freshman, and has already reeled in nine receptions for 151 yards this time around. Barker's 16.8 yards per catch and two scoring grabs are both the second-best marks on the team.

• Junior LT Vederian Lowe — He started seven games as a freshman in 2017, and has begun all 17 of the club's outings since then. His 79.3 overall grade (64 is considered average) from Pro Football Focus (PFF) makes him the second-best offensive player for the Illini, and also ranks 22nd among all offensive tackles nationally.

• Redshirt sophomore LG Kendrick Green — He is riding a string of 17 straight starts entering this weekend's game, and has actually begun every contest he has ever appeared in, in Champaign. PFF has tabbed Green as the sixth-best offensive guard in the nation so far, with a 77.9 overall grade.

• Redshirt junior C Doug Kramer — He has started 20 consecutive affairs entering the Michigan showdown, and was actually listed on the preseason Rimington Award watch list (given annually to the game's best center). Kramer has lived up to the hype in 2019, with PFF naming him the nation's seventh-best center so far (78.2).

• Fifth-year senior RG Richie Petitbon — He transferred in from Alabama after appearing in just 11 games during his four years there. Petitbon's 68.7 mark from PFF is the lowest of the Illini's five starting linemen, but is obviously still above average.

• Junior RT Alex Palczewski — He has the longest stretch of consecutive games started among Illinois' front five, having begun 28 straight dating back to the final 11 of his freshman campaign in 2017. Palczewski has earned an solid 74.4 grade from PFF this year, including a 77.4 tally as a pass blocker.

• Redshirt junior DE Oluwole Betiku — Yet another transfer from USC, Betiku has some of the best numbers of any defensive player in the country in 2019. His seven sacks are tied for the third most in the nation, while his 10.5 tackles for loss are tied for fourth.

• Fifth-year senior DT Jamal Milan — He only has 13 tackles and one stop behind the line of scrimmage, but his 74.4 PFF grade checks in as the fifth best on the Illini defense. Milan's PFF mark of 75 against the run is also the fifth best of any Illinois defender.

• Senior DT Tymir Oliver — He has racked up 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks, the latter of which is tied for the third-highest total on the team. PFF has also tagged him with an overall tally of 75.4, which ranks third on the club's defense.

• Redshirt junior DE Ayo Shogbonyo — He has turned into a force in his first season with extensive game action, with his 6.5 tackles for loss ranking second on the team. Shogbonyo had just 22 career tackles entering 2019, but is already close to matching that total with 17 so far this year.

• Senior LB Dele Harding — His 11.2 tackles per game not only lead the Big Ten, but are the sixth most in the country. Harding has also chipped in 4.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions, including a 40-yard pick-six last Saturday at Minnesota.

• Redshirt junior LB Jake Hansen — The veteran has racked up an impressive stat line in 2019, with 39 tackles (second most on the team), 5.5 tackles for loss (third), 2.5 sacks (second) and four forced fumbles (most). His 82.1 overall grade from PFF is not only the highest on Illinois' entire defense, but also 5.3 points better than anyone else's (Betiku's 76.8 grade is next best).

• Redshirt junior LB Milo Eifler — The Washington transfer has compiled 23 tackles and 3.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage after accumulating just six tackles during his two years in Seattle. The highlight of Eifler's career came last week at Minnesota when he ran back a fumble recovery seven yards for a touchdown in the Illini's 40-17 loss.

• Junior CB Nate Hobbs — He is the most experienced among the Illini defensive backs expected to start on Saturday, with 22 career starts under his belt. Hobbs has 27 tackles and three passes broken up on the year, though his 57.9 PFF grade is obviously underwhelming.

• Freshman CB Devon Witherspoon — Last weekend at Minnesota was his first career start and though he's expected to earn the nod once again on Saturday, sophomore Jartavius Martin will see plenty of time as well (Martin has played 299 snaps on the year, compared to Witherspoon's 100). The freshman has struggled mightily this season, with his 54.7 PFF mark ranking 27th out of the 32 Illini defenders who have seen the field.

• Sophomore S Delano Ware — His 56.5 overall PFF grade is the second lowest of Illinois' 11 projected starters, only beating out Witherspoon. Ware has especially struggled against the run, with his 50.3 tally standing as the third lowest of the 31 Illini defenders who have attempted to stop the rush this season.

• Junior S Tony Adams — He has racked up 25 tackles and three tackles for loss, after accumulating 43 stops, 3.5 tackles for loss and four passes broken up last season. PFF has declared Adams as a below-average run defender (62.3), tackler (42.3) and coverage man (62).

• Redshirt junior K James McCourt — He has connected on 4 of 6 field goal attempts, including a perfect 2 of 2 mark from beyond 50 yards. McCourt's two misses on the year came from 30 yards out against Akron and from 43 yards out versus Minnesota.

• Junior P Blake Hayes — His 44.9-yard average is the third best in the Big Ten, and he has recorded at least one 50-yard punt in four of Illinois' five games. Hayes has also been incredibly consistent, averaging at least 43.1 yards per punt in four of the club's five outings.

"Illinois is primarily a running team, and they’ve had some success on the ground over the last couple of seasons," Bucshon explained. "Fifth-year senior running back Reggie Corbin is the go-player on offense. Corbin is currently fourth in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 95.5 yards per game.

"Still, the Illini running attack stalled last week in the 40-17 loss at Minnesota, managing just 91 yards and 3.4 yards per carry. They will need to get back on track on Saturday if Illinois hopes to keep things close versus the Wolverines."

Illinois' rushing attack has averaged 163.2 yards on the ground this season, which ranks among the middle of the pack in college football at 63rd (out of 130 teams) nationally.

Perhaps a bit surprisingly, the rushing production between the Illini's wins and losses have been almost identical — they average 170 yards per outing in the two victories against Akron and Connecticut, and 159.6 yards per game in the losses to Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Minnesota.

"Illinois thought they would improve the passing game when it brought in Michigan grad transfer quarterback Brandon Peters, a player Wolverines fans are very familiar with," the analyst noted. "But it hasn’t materialized yet. Illinois hasn’t been able to consistently move the ball through the air or make big plays.

"Two other transfers, Josh Imatorbhebhe and Trevon Sidney from USC, bolstered the talent level in the wide receiver corps. But Peters has been under duress and the Illini have allowed 15 sacks through five games.

"Now Peters is likely out with an injury, and the burden falls on redshirt freshman quarterback Matt Robinson."

Peters' numbers weren't exactly off the charts so far this year, but his 10 touchdown passes were nonetheless tied for the fifth most in the Big Ten.

With the Indiana native likely out with injury, the Wolverine defense should be able to tee off against redshirt freshman Matt Robinson, who has only connected on 50 percent of his 38 career passes.

"Illinois doesn’t do much well on defense, but they are good at taking the ball away, which has been a staple of [head coach] Lovie Smith defenses," Bucshon revealed. "The Illini lead the Big Ten in forced fumbles, led by redshirt junior linebacker Jake Hansen with four. Turnovers kept Illinois close in the 42-38 loss to Nebraska in week four.

"Last week, the defense scored the only touchdowns for Illinois against Minnesota, one on a pick-six by senior middle linebacker Dele Harding and another score on a fumble recovery that redshirt junior linebacker Milo Eifler scooped up and returned for a TD."

The Illini's 12 forced turnovers are actually tied for the eighth most in the nation, with the club's eight fumble recoveries tied for second in the land.

On the flip side, it's no secret that fumbles have been a major issue for the Wolverine offense this year, with their seven lost checking in 122nd in college football.

"There are numerous issues on defense," the analyst began. "Illinois ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten in nearly every measurable statistic. Opponents have found success on the ground and through the air. Illinois has been steamrolled up front, yielding 183 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota rushed for 332 yards last week, including 211 yards from [sixth-year senior running back] Rodney Smith.

"Opposing quarterbacks have passed for over 1,200 yards against Illinois. They give up big plays. They can’t get stops on third down. It’s a defense that’s struggling in just about every way right now."

Illinois hasn't been able to effectively stop the run or the pass this season, ranking 98th nationally in the former and 83rd in the latter.

The Illini put together impressive defensive outings in the first two games against Akron and Connecticut (yielded an average of 238.5 yards between the two affairs), but saw the bottom fall out after that, giving up an average of 552.3 yards in losses to Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Minnesota.

"I may be generous in predicting Illinois to score 10 points against a Michigan defense that looks to be coming into its own after a dominating performance against Iowa last week," Bucshon said. "With Peters likely out, the Illinois offense is going to be one-dimensional and I just don’t see them consistently moving the chains against the Wolverines.

"Even though the Michigan offense has been spotty at times, they should be able to control the ball against Illinois and put points on the board. It’s a mismatch in the trenches. I wouldn’t be surprised to see freshman running back Zach Charbonnet have a career day for the Wolverines."

Michigan 42, Illinois 10

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