Michigan Football: Previewing Northwestern With A Wildcat Insider

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Louie Vaccher of WildcatReport was kind enough to swing by and give an in-depth breakdown of Northwestern prior to this weekend's contest against Michigan.

He explained which players are expected to start for the Wildcats on Saturday, along with what the club's biggest strengths and weaknesses are, as well as a final score prediction.

• QB Clayton Thorson (redshirt senior) — He tore his ACL in the December bowl win over Kentucky and is seemingly still regaining his form, splitting reps with redshirt junior T.J. Green throughout much of the first three games. After throwing for 2,844 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, Thorson passed for 753 yards and three scores in three games so far in 2018.

• RB John Moten (redshirt junior) — He instantly becomes the starter with the news of redshirt sophomore running back Jeremy Larkin's retirement from football due to a medical condition on Monday. Larkin had racked up 346 yards on the year, while Moten has been the team's second-leading rusher with just 21 yards.

• WR Flynn Nagel (senior) — He led the team in receptions last year (48), and is leading the club in both catches (20) and yards (226) in the early going. The senior's best performance came in a Sept. 8 loss to Duke, when he hauled in 133 yards on 12 receptions.

• WR Bennett Skowronek (junior) — After reeling in team highs in both yards (644) and scoring grabs (five) last year as a sophomore, Skowronek has seen his numbers dip a bit in 2018. His 14 grabs rank just fourth on the team, while his 172 yards are third.

• WR Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman (redshirt sophomore) — He has made a minimal impact in his first season as a starter, with six catches for 52 yards through the team's first three games. He has not hauled in more than 19 yards in a contest this season, but has the potential to cause mismatch problems at 6-2, 202.

• TE Cameron Green (redshirt junior) — The club's primary "superback" (basically a glorified tight end) has emerged in a big way as a primary weapon in Northwestern's attack, leading the team in touchdown catches (two), while ranking second with 183 receiving yards. He put on a show in the Wildcats' Sept. 15 loss to Akron when he reeled in 11 grabs for 125 yards and two scores.

• LT Blake Hance (redshirt senior) — He missed the Akron contest with injury, but is listed as the team's starter on its official depth chart. Redshirt sophomore Gunnar Vogel filled in during his absence against the Zips, so whether or not Hance is able to go will be something to keep an eye on.

• LG J.B. Butler (redshirt senior) — The veteran has been a staple on one of the most experienced offensive lines in the conference, starting 16 games over the past two years. At 308 pounds, he is the fourth-heaviest player on the entire team.

• C Jared Thomas (redshirt junior) — He is in his first year as the team's starting center, though he opened three games at left tackle a year ago. Unfortunately for Thomas and the rest of the unit, Northwestern's rushing attack has only been able to muster 114 yards per game, which is the worst mark in the conference and ranks 114th nationally.

• RG Tommy Doles (redshirt senior) — Like Hance and Butler, Doles has also been a mainstay on the Wildcat front line, starting all 26 affairs over the past two seasons. The Grand Rapids, Mich., native has been a big part of a Wildcat unit that is only yielding 4.6 tackles for loss per game, which is 30th nationally.

• RT Rashawn Slater (sophomore) — The youngster has received high accolades during his short time in Evanston, grading out as the No. 1 freshman offensive lineman in the country last year by Pro Football Focus after he started 12 games at right tackle. Slater has picked up right where he left off, starting the first three outings of 2018.

• DE Joe Gaziano (redshirt junior) — The redshirt junior had one of the best years of any lineman in the league last season, leading the Big Ten with nine sacks. He has totaled four tackles for loss and two sacks through three contests.

• DT Jordan Thompson (senior) — The 6-3, 292-pounder is the most experienced player on the Wildcat defensive line, having started 23 tilts over the past two seasons. He has tallied 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks in the early going.

• DT Alex Miller (junior) — He has missed the Wildcats' last two games with injury, but like Hance above, is listed as the team's starter on its official depth chart. If he is unable to go, look for fifth-year seniors Ben Oxley and Fred Wyatt to fill in.

• DE Samdup Miller (sophomore) — He started all 13 games last year as a freshman, racking up 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Miller's numbers have dipped slightly in 2018, with 2.5 of the former and zero of the latter so far.

• LB Paddy Fisher (redshirt sophomore) — Fisher was a tackling machine in 2017 as a redshirt freshman, checking in fourth in the conference with 113 stops, en route to second-team All-Big Ten honors from the media. His 28 tackles so far in 2018 once again lead the team.

• LB Nate Hall (redshirt senior) — His 79 stops were second on the team last year, while his 16.5 tackles for loss were the fourth most in the conference. Hall started 2018 with a bang when he compiled 10 tackles in a win at Purdue, but his totals have dropped each game since (seven against Duke and only four against Akron).

• Blake Gallagher (sophomore) — The first-year starter has made a huge impact in the Wildcat linebacking unit, checking in second on the team with 26 takedowns. He has been a large part of why the Wildcat rush defense ranks a respectable 42nd nationally (129.6 yards surrendered per game).

• CB Montre Hartage (senior) — He is the most experienced defensive back on the team, having started all 26 contests the past two seasons. However, not even he has been able to save a Wildcat secondary that is allowing opponents to throw for 250.3 yards per game on it (95th nationally).

• CB Greg Newsome (freshman) — Despite being just a freshman, he has grabbed a starting cornerback spot from redshirt junior Trae Williams, though Williams still sees plenty of action. Newsome and the rest of the defensive backfield are allowing foes to complete 66.3 percent of their passes, which ranks 121st in college football.

• S J.R. Pace (sophomore) — He has stepped into a starting role at safety for the departed Kyle Queiro and Godwin Igwebuike at safety after recording two picks last year as a backup. Pace has already racked up three pass breakups and a pick in 2018.

• S Jared McGee (redshirt senior) — He has finally stepped into a starting role after appearing in 25 games the last two years (only three starts). McGee has compiled 19 tackles and three tackles for loss from his safety spot in 2018.

• K Charlie Kuhbander (sophomore) — He was named honorable mention All-Big Ten after setting the program record last season for most field goals by a rookie kicker (13). Kuhbander has struggled so far in 2018, though, only connecting on one of his three attempts (both misses have come from inside 50 yards).

• P Jake Collins (redshirt senior) — He was a three-year starter at Western Kentucky before transferring to Evanston following the 2017 season. Collins is off to the worst campaign of his career, though, averaging just 37.3 yards on 15 punts.

"The Wildcats' biggest strength on offense just announced his retirement on Monday," Vaccher explained. "Jeremy Larkin was their most consistent and most dynamic weapon.

"No matter what was going on around him, the Wildcats could count on their star running back to run for 100 yards and make plays in the passing game.

"Northwestern still has Clayton Thorson, though, a fifth-year senior with 42 career starts. Given a clean pocket, he can be as productive as any quarterback in the country."

Larkin's retirement is a major blow to the Wildcat offense — he had been averaging 4.8 yards per carry and had scored five touchdowns, which were tied for second in the Big Ten.

Moten and freshman Isaiah Bowser are the only other two running backs on the entire roster who have even carried the ball this season, but they have combined for just 21 yards on 13 touches.

Northwestern's rushing attack with Larkin had only been averaging 3.1 yards per carry (121st nationally).

"The offensive line has been a problem the last couple of games and is a little banged up," Vaccher revealed. "Both starting tackles — Rashawn Slater and Blake Hance — went down with injuries against Duke, and Hance and Tommy Doles, NU's best O-lineman, missed the Akron game.

"They are really going to be under the gun against a defensive line that Pat Fitzgerald said is as good as he's seen since he's been in the Big Ten.

"The other thing they are lacking is a deep threat that can stretch the field. The Wildcat offense isn't very explosive."

The Wildcat front hasn't done a good job of protecting its quarterbacks this season, yielding two sacks per game, which is eighth in the Big Ten and 71st in college football.

Michigan's front seven, meanwhile, has averaged 2.5 sacks per contest (45th in the country), which is a bit lower than what we're used to seeing — they tallied 3.2 last season, which put them at No. 7 in the FBS.

As for a lack of playmakers on offense, Northwestern has racked up just five plays of 30 yards or more, which checks it in at 101st nationally.

"Northwestern's strength is its front seven, which is pretty stout against the run," Vaccher noted. "They have a strong pair of defensive ends in Joe Gaziano and Samdup Miller — though not on the level of [Michigan junior] Rashan Gary and [fifth-year senior] Chase Winovich — and Paddy Fisher is a tackling machine at middle linebacker who seems to be getting better every week.

"Their goal will be to contain Michigan's running attack and make them one-dimensional."

The Wildcat front seven has done a good job stopping opposing rushing attacks this season — especially once they reach the red zone.

They have only surrendered two scores on the ground in 2018, which is tied for the sixth fewest in the country.

Pounding the ball is exactly what Michigan wants to do, though.

Its 10 rushing touchdowns are tied for third in the Big Ten, while its 5.5 yards per carry average is the fourth-best mark in the league.

The Wildcats will likely have to stop U-M's ground game if they hope to have a decent chance of winning on Saturday.

"Their weakness has been a glaring one through the first three games — giving up big plays," the Wildcat insider said. "Northwestern has allowed a dozen explosion plays, nine of them through the air.

"Akron's Kato Nelson had a field day, beating Northwestern deep for passes of 56, 43, 40, 25 and 24 yards, with the last two going for touchdowns.

"Fitzgerald has talked a lot about the lack of eye discipline in his secondary, and it has showed as just about every starting defensive back has been victimized by the long ball this year."

As a result, the team's pass defense has posted poor statistics in just about every category.

All three of its opponents have thrown for at least 204 yards on them, with Purdue going for 270 and Akron for 277 — though Purdue ranks 16th nationally in passing yards per game (318.3), Akron is not known for its passing attack, checking in at 75th nationally (222.3-yard average).

Northwestern has also surrendered six scores through the air, which is tied for 69th in college football.

That doesn't bode well against a Michigan passing attack that is only gaining confidence behind junior quarterback Shea Patterson. He is connecting on 70.1 percent of his passes and has tossed seven scores against only two picks.

The Wildcat defensive backfield, meanwhile, has let all three of its foes complete at least 60.7 percent of their throws, including a 75-percent accuracy mark by Duke.

"Northwestern is coming into Saturday's game off of two straight disappointing home losses and a bye," Vaccher said. "But if there's one thing I've learned covering this team, it's that they are very good at putting bad performances behind them. They have had a lot of practice, too.

"I think the Wildcats defense will hold its own on Saturday. If they play more fundamentally sound in the first half and limit big plays, Northwestern may be able to stay in the game for a while.

"However, I find it hard to believe that the Wildcat offense can score enough to win, especially without Larkin. Michigan is too good defensively and the Wildcats just don't have enough firepower to pull off the upset."

Pick: Michigan 27, Northwestern 17

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