Michigan Football Roundtable: Michigan State Talk, Surprises & More
Michigan faces Michigan State Saturday at noon in Ann Arbor in the latest edition of the in-state grudge match. The Wolverines are 25-point favorites against the Spartans after waxing Minnesota, 49-24, and get MSU coming off a 38-27 home loss to Rutgers.
We answer several questions on the game with the Gophers and the upcoming contest with the Spartans, the Big Ten and more.
What was your most pleasant surprise on offense against Minnesota? On defense?
CHRIS BALAS: Redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton is the obvious one on offense. He was relaxed and poised, was patient as a runner in waiting for his blockers (some running backs could learn from him, honestly) and put the ball where it needed to be for yards after the catch. The moment didn’t seem too big for him, and while there was no crowd to make it tougher on him, you couldn’t have asked for more from a first-time starter. His offensive line is a close second — outstanding for a first effort with five new guys — and the game plan was right there, too. Coordinator Josh Gattis almost made it easy for him.
Redshirt sophomore cornerback Gemon Green gets the nod on defense. He was always around the ball, beaten badly only once (on a play in which it looked like the receiver pushed off) and could have picked off two passes, probably should have. He might well be the Wolverines’ best cover corner, something we never would have fathomed heading into the summer.
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AUSTIN FOX: Offense — the play of redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton, and how confident and efficient he was throughout the game. It was fair to expect significant growing pains and for Milton to struggle heading into the matchup, but that never happened. He was consistently accurate and poised while leading Michigan’s offense, and — most importantly — never turned the ball over.
The most pleasant surprise on defense was the play of redshirt sophomore cornerback Gemon Green. The starting corner spot opposite redshirt sophomore Vincent Gray had major question marks surrounding it due to the inexperience that resided there, but Green succeeded with flying colors. He played a key role in only allowing Minnesota to throw for 197 yards, with his solid play representing an encouraging sign at one of the few defensive starting positions that had question marks surrounding it.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Offensively, it was the way U-M used senior h-back Ben Mason, who didn't really have a role last season. He's too good of a blocker to not have on the field, and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis did a great job finding him a role. Mason played 29 snaps and made them all count, even scoring a touchdown on an eight-yard reception. The blend of Gattis' 'speed in space' with Harbaugh's old school run schemes was beautiful to watch.
On defense, it was the play of redshirt sophomore cornerback Gemon Green, who graded out as U-M's top cover man, per PFF, and notched two pass breakups. He also came downhill and made some nice hits on run plays. His performance was more than encouraging not for his own future as a Wolverine, but for the outlook of the defensive backfield heading into the rest of the schedule.
What concerned you the most in the win, and why?
CHRIS BALAS: It’s easy to say the kicking game, but we’re going with the run defense. Yes, Mohamed Ibrahim is a good back. Yes, U-M allowed only 129 yards rushing. That total was skewed by sack yardage, however. Ibrahim averaged 5.4 yards per carry, and while he was quick to the gaps, the Wolverines over-pursued too often, lost contain or were flat-out blocked.
Minnesota is a very good offensive football team, but the Golden Gophers made it look too easy against the Wolverines. We still don’t know what to make of the interior line against the better lines on the schedule.
AUSTIN FOX: There was very little to be concerned about following the win, but we’ll give junior kicker Jake Moody and his struggles the nod here. He missed all three of his field goal attempts, and his ineffectiveness (dating back to the middle of last year) appears to be entirely mental right now.
Some may brush Moody’s struggles off due to the impending return of fifth-year senior Quinn Nordin, but it’s important to remember how inconsistent Nordin has been in the past as well (he missed five straight kicks stemming from the end of the 2018 season through the beginning of last year). Moody was nearly automatic for the Wolverines earlier in his career (made the first 14 field goals of his collegiate tenure), and it would be a huge luxury for U-M if he can regain that consistency.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: There's certainly concern with the pass defense, especially against some of the drag routes Minnesota ran, but the obvious answer here is allowing the Gophers to rush for 4.7 yards per carry when taking out the sack yardage.
Gopher junior running back Mohamed Ibrahim is a good player, so we're not taking anything away from him, but U-M didn't get enough penetration from its interior defensive line AND the linebackers missed some fits. That's not a good formula for a defense. The good news is, coordinator Don Brown can clean up the missed fits and the overpursuing. But the defensive line not having enough push up front is still a major concern.
It was one game, but did Michigan’s win over Minnesota and the week one Big Ten results change your mind on Michigan’s season? Why and/or how?
CHRIS BALAS: Yes. Michigan looked much better prepared and in better physical shape than most of the teams we watched in Week One, Wisconsin and Ohio State also right up there. We expected a U-M win in Minneapolis but figured Milton and his line would have growing pains, not envisioning the balanced offensive performance we saw.
This group seems to be jelling ahead of schedule.They also seem to really like each other.
Elsewhere, MSU looked like the tire fire we expected, and while Indiana beat Penn State, the Hoosiers managed only 211 yards on offense in an overtime win. That still won’t be an easy game, but IU’s offense still has a lot to prove and PSU moved the ball on its defense. Penn State looked just okay — that needs to be a home win — so it comes down to Wisconsin at home and Ohio State on the road. The Badgers will just be getting quarterback Graham Mertz back and could be a bit rusty with some missing a few weeks due to COVID.
AUSTIN FOX: Yes. Early season struggles were to be expected as Milton and a revamped offensive line got accustomed to Big Ten play, which in turn was likely to lead to a loss or two before the Dec. 12 game against Ohio State. Michigan potentially dropping two games before its finale in Columbus now seems far less likely.
The Maize and Blue’s matchup against Penn State at home on Nov. 28 — one that many saw as a potential stumbling block — is now looking easier with Nittany Lion running backs Journey Brown and Noah Cain out for the year. Uncertainty surrounding Wisconsin redshirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz could also make U-M’s Nov. 14 matchup with the Badgers less challenging. Nevertheless, the increased optimism stems from the way Michigan played last weekend, with its dominant win enough to raise expectations of how high this team’s ceiling can be.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: The week one results certainly didn't hurt U-M's chances, mostly because the Maize and Blue impressed while beating ranked Minnesota. Penn State looking underwhelming and Wisconsin losing its quarterback for three weeks plus having its game canceled makes those two contests look much more winnable.
It's hard to predict the Wolverines winning every Big Ten game heading into the Ohio State finale just yet, considering Harbaugh's teams have done that just once (2018). But there's no individual game, on its own, out of the next six that I'd pick U-M to lose in — for now.
Re-Rank the Big Ten teams based on the first week, with the caveat that it was only one week and there’s still plenty we don’t know.
CHRIS BALAS:
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Northwestern
6. Indiana
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Nebraska
11. Rutgers
12. Illinois
13. Michigan State
14. Maryland
The Buckeyes are still the cream of the crop, Iowa will likely move up and Northwestern and Indiana will have a hard time staying where they are.
AUSTIN FOX:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Penn State
5. Minnesota
6. Northwestern
7. Iowa
8. Indiana
9. Purdue
10. Nebraska
11. Rutgers
12. Michigan State
13. Illinois
14. Maryland
CLAYTON SAYFIE:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Indiana,
5. Penn State
6. Minnesota
7. Purdue
8. Nebraska
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Rutgers
12. Illinois
13. Michigan State
14. Maryland
What were your first detailed impressions of Michigan State after seeing the game with Rutgers?
CHRIS BALAS: That they were slow, sloppy, out of shape and not very well coached, at least in this game … but that Rocky Lombardi was better than expected and the defense still has a few pieces.
MSU is lacking athletes, which many predicted would be the case. Former head coach Mark Dantonio wasn’t tearing it up on the recruiting trail at the end of his tenure, and it shows. The linebackers were the bright spot, led by Antjuan Simmons, and the receivers are solid, but the Spartans are going to lose a lot of games in the trenches this year. Rutgers dominated MSU’s offensive line in stretches, and that doesn’t bode well.
If Michigan State can’t run the ball, and it appears they can’t, they’re in trouble. But they won’t turn it over close to seven times again this year.
AUSTIN FOX: That even though the Spartans are even worse than we thought, they’re perhaps not quite as bad as some people are making them out to be.
Yes, the seven turnovers were as embarrassing as it gets, but it’s worth pointing out the matchup was still a one-possession game early in the fourth quarter. MSU outgained Rutgers on the day, 369-276, with redshirt junior quarterback Rocky Lombardi throwing for 319 yards and three touchdowns with a 72 percent completion percentage.
Another big takeaway surrounding Michigan State was how bad its running game was. MSU ran for 50 yards and averaged just 1.3 yards per carry, despite returning a 988-yard back in 2019 in redshirt sophomore Elijah Collins.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: The Spartans offense didn't run the ball well (gained just 1.3 yards per carry) and relied solely on the passing game to move down the field. Rocky Lombardi is much improved but still turnover prone, and while the Spartans have a couple decent weapons in receivers Jalen Nailor and Jayden Reed, there's not enough talent to say they'll be able to hang with Michigan's fast defense.
MSU's defense stopped the run against Rutgers, but that's Rutgers. Michigan's offensive line impressed in week one and will be a big challenge for the Spartans front seven.
What does Michigan State have to do to remain competitive with Michigan Saturday? Is there any chance the Spartans rise to the occasion and win?
CHRIS BALAS: Shorten the game, hope for a lot of Michigan turnovers and/or hit some big plays in the passing game.
Mark Dantonio would go heavy and test the smaller Michigan front seven to see if he could get four or five yards on first downs, control the clock and keep the Wolverines off balance. We don’t know what to expect from Tucker, but we do expect Lombardi to take some shots against the Wolverines’ young secondary, hope for some broken tackles in man coverage like they got against Rutgers to go the distance twice and take some chances on defense.
This would be one of the upsets of the series if the Spartans won, but they’ll come to play.
AUSTIN FOX: If Michigan comes out incredibly flat and doesn’t show much interest in being out there (as it did last year in the blowout loss at Wisconsin), then Michigan State could hang around for a while in this one. Carelessness with the ball could also allow the Spartans to keep this one closer than expected.
If MSU wants to hang around well into the second half, Lombardi will likely have to have the game of his life and hit his receivers for several explosive plays down the field. Too many things have to go right for the Spartans to actually come away with a win on Saturday, though it’s still football and a rivalry game, and you should never say never. If we’re playing percentages though, we’ll put MSU’s chance at a victory at three percent.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: First of all, there's absolutely a way MSU wins this game. The Spartans will have to play nearly flawless and force U-M into some mistakes (and U-M will have to make some mistakes of its own). If Lombardi and the offense can connect on some big passing plays while avoiding turnovers, it should be within three possessions at the end.
If the Wolverines self-implode, the Spartans will have a chance to come away with a victory. Those are big 'ifs,' however. I expect U-M to win very, very comfortably.
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