Michigan Wolverines Football Roundtable: Revised Record Predictions, More
Our weekly roundtable on various topics, from revised record to early surprises and more. Chris Balas, Austin Fox and Clayton Sayfie participate.
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What’s your biggest takeaway (or two) about this team after two games?
CHRIS BALAS: That we still have a lot to learn, and this game, this weekend will go a long way toward answering some questions. It’s clear the Wolverines aren’t as good as we thought they were after week one, and while warts were obvious last week, it’s hard to know if they’ll linger. They ran into a motivated rival who came to play, while they showed up like they were unmotivated and disinterested.
Jim Harbaugh’s teams have bounced back from losses admirably in the last several years. Indiana is tough. We’ll know more about the secondary, Joe Milton and more after this one, but it seems there are a few more holes than we thought at corner and linebacker, and the interior defensive line has been underwhelming.
AUSTIN FOX: How inconsistent they are. The team who crushed Minnesota looked like a club who could go on to have a heck of a regular season and challenge Ohio State, with the coaches putting together an excellent game plan against the Gophers and the players executing it beautifully. The U-M squad we saw last week against MSU, on the other hand, was ill-prepared and lifeless, and looked like it had no interest in responding after the first sign of adversity hit.
Perhaps the players and coaches got too complacent and thought they were going to roll the Spartans, reading into their own press clipping a little too much. Regardless of what the cause for the flat performance was, this team seems mentally weak right now, and that’s been the case too often under Jim Harbaugh over the past few years.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: That they're a bit more of a work in progress than I thought, specifically at a few position groups. The offensive line is behind where I thought it would be, though I still expect it to improve under Ed Warinner as the year progresses. The defensive line hasn't appeared to take a big step forward, and that includes a pass rush that went dormant in week two.
The cornerbacks have been exposed at times, and there hasn't been enough help for them in coverage. This might end up being a really good team by the end of the year — depending on what changes they make — but that's later than I thought it would happen.
Which Michigan running back should be getting the majority of the carries, and what should the rotation look like?
CHRIS BALAS: Redshirt sophomore Hassan Haskins is averaging 9.9 yards per carry, and that’s including the stupid, short-yardage wildcat situations that have worked at times but still need to be shelved. He’s making safeties miss with his feet and turning those very short gains into medium, even long runs. He should get the nod, though in fairness, the line has really let sophomore Zach Charbonnet down on most of his carries. He’s just had nowhere to run at times minus his 70-yarder at Minnesota.
We also want to see some pitch sweeps to frosh Blake Corum, let him use his quick feet and speed to the edge and see what he can do outside the tackles. They call it “speed in space” for a reason … right?
AUSTIN FOX: Whoever has the hot hand.
Redshirt sophomore Hassan Haskins leads the team in yards, touchdowns and yards per carry, and yet has played the fewest snaps of the four rushers. If an individual running back is productive during a game, then he should be the guy getting the majority of the carries. It has not played out that way, however.
On the flip side, those not producing can take a seat on the bench. Fifth-year senior Chris Evans, for example, is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has yet to impress, but has nevertheless played the second most snaps of any of the running backs. If this is a true meritocracy likes Harbaugh preaches, then the running back rotation needs to reflect that.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Hassan Haskins and then Blake Corum, at least for now. Those have been the two hot hands, and it's confusing why the Wolverines didn't stick with them against the Spartans. They also both bring something different to the table, and a change of pace can be effective. Sophomore Zach Charbonnet should get some run, but after the first few series, it should be — and frankly has been — clear who the go-to guys are for the given game.
What did you think about this team before the season that you were right about? On the other side, where were you off?
CHRIS BALAS: I thought Joe Milton would do okay at quarterback, and he has. He’s been low on the list of this team’s problems, looking pretty poised even when his protections broke down up front, and I like his leadership. He’s on track for a solid first year. The corners have been a concern, as expected, and it’s been even more worrisome than expected.
The offensive line has been inconsistent, at best, and was flat out overwhelmed last week. We expected some growing pains, but nothing like that. We also thought they’d get more explosive plays downfield in the passing game.
AUSTIN FOX: That there would be significant growing pains with the offensive line. They played well against Minnesota’s defensive front in the opener, but it’s turning out now the Gophers’ defense is one of the worst in the country. The offensive line’s inexperience was on full display last Saturday against MSU, when the unit as a whole put on a dreadful performance.
The overall caliber of the defense, meanwhile, fits the bill when discussing preseason inaccuracies. Expecting U-M’s defense to return to the ranks of the elite (as it was from 2016-18 under Don Brown) was perhaps a bit premature, with the crew underperforming through two games. They’re allowing 25.5 points per game, and though the secondary has received most of the blame, the front four deserves criticism as well after failing to make an impact last week against MSU.
Michigan’s defense should be better than the result we’re currently seeing on the field.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: We were right that the cornerback position was a huge concern following the opt-out of Ambry Thomas, who could've been elite this year. The struggles weren't hard to see coming, considering the lack of proven experience.
On the flip side, we were wrong (at least thus far) that Michigan's offense would be able to outscore teams to win. This actually goes hand-in-hand with the question marks in the defensive backfield. Scoring 24 points to a below average (at best) team is not going to win you many games in college football. Only four teams in the country (out of 44) won last week by scoring 24 or less. As much as the defense deserves blame, the offense didn't sustain drives to put enough points on the board, flat out.
What was your preseason prediction for Michigan, and what is it now? Who will they lose to/beat?
CHRIS BALAS: I had them at 5-3 due to the opt-outs (think they missed Ambry Thomas and Nico Collins last week?), the revamped offensive line and quarterback — with all the injuries, all bets are off. They’re going to be looking at different combinations up front, and it was already a novice group.
They’re still favored to beat Indiana tomorrow. If they do, they’ll beat Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland, as well. It’s looking more and more likely that the Wisconsin game might be called off due to the Badgers’ issues with COVID. That makes 5-2 with a loss to Ohio State.
But 4-3 or 4-4 seems most likely.
AUSTIN FOX: 6-2 through the regular season was the preseason prediction here, though 5-3 or even 4-4 is looking much more likely now. Pinpointing specific games as wins or losses seems to be especially meaningless in this strange year, though it’s still safe to project the season-ending showdown at Ohio State as a loss.
U-M should be able to take down Rutgers on Nov. 21 and Maryland on Dec. 5, and pick up a minimum of one win against Indiana, Wisconsin (assuming the game occurs) and Penn State. We’ll pencil in the Wolverines to finish 5-3, assuming the Nov. 14 matchup with the Badgers occurs.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: My preseason prediction was for the Wolverines to be 6-2 heading into Champions Week. Though that's still possible, it has become increasingly unlikely. I'll go with 4-4 now, though the Indiana game will go a long way in showing us the trajectory of this year's bunch.
The Wolverines will beat Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland, while they'll lose to Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio State.
What does Jim Harbaugh need to do the rest of the way to win back the portion of the fan base he might have lost?
CHRIS BALAS: Win out, and that includes a win over Ohio State. At the very least, Harbaugh needs to win the games before OSU and play the Buckeyes tough. We understand that sounds blasphemous to you old-timers, but the Buckeyes are simply at a different level right now.
Either way, A.D. Warde Manuel needs to make a decision whether to extend Jim Harbaugh within the next several weeks. Harbaugh clearly hasn’t lived up to his elite salary, but for recruiting purposes and stability — and yes, there’s a lot of talent here and coming in — there needs to be some sort of statement made.
AUSTIN FOX: Win the rest of the games between now and Ohio State. That’s a tall task when considering what lies between (Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State, etc.). Heck, there are some who won’t even get back on board if Michigan is able to do that.
Last Saturday’s loss was disturbing not only for the trajectory of this season, but for the trajectory of the Harbaugh tenure as a whole. There is undoubtedly a portion of the fan base who has completely given up on him, and it will take nothing short of a miracle to get them back on board. Finishing the regular season 6-2 and competing with Ohio State would at least restore hope about what the program can be moving forward.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: “Winning cures all" is a cliche, but it's true, and that couldn't have been more evident, in reverse, observing the fanbase in the aftermath of a horrendous loss to Michigan State. They need to win at least half of the remaining games and show that they can adjust and improve on both sides of the ball.
Additionally, if Milton shows big-time improvement throughout the year, that will give a boost of confidence to those fans and help their trust level in this staff. But with all that being said, some fans just simply became much more vocal this week, using the loss as ammo to state their already-held beliefs. I don't think he's lost as much of the fan base as many might think.
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