Michigan Football Roundtable: "U-M Wins If...", MVP Candidates & More
Our weekly roundtable, this week including Minnesota game predictions beyond the score and much more.
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What’s the one thing about Saturday’s game where you’d say, ‘if this happens, Michigan wins.’
CHRIS BALAS: If Michigan runs for 200 yards, game over. That likely means the Wolverines will have been able to control the line of scrimmage and the tempo and not had to rely on redshirt sophomore Joe Milton to win the game for them in his first start.
There’s an impressive list of U-M quarterbacks who struggled in their first road games, and we’ve listed them a number of times this week. Milton will have an advantage in that he’s playing in front of 700 people instead of 70,000 or so and won’t have communication or crowd intimidation issues.
AUSTIN FOX: It’s difficult to minimize it down to just one thing, but it’s hard to envision Michigan losing this one if redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton has an excellent game. So much of the uncertainty surrounding this matchup involves Milton and the kind of performance he’ll have, with some (perhaps accurately) going as far as to say the outcome rests on his shoulders.
With how stout Michigan’s defense is expected to be, a big night from Milton (270-plus yards, two touchdowns and no picks, for example) should be enough to give U-M the victory.
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CLAYTON SAYFIE: If Michigan wins the turnover battle, it will win the game. It sounds obvious and maybe even a bit like 'coach speak,' but the Wolverines are going to have to value every possession. If Joe Milton can take care of the ball and not make the big mistake, the Maize and Blue should have enough horses to win this one. Playing a clean game is extremely important.
Same question, other way … “if this happens, Michigan loses.”
CHRIS BALAS: If Minnesota is able to expose Michigan’s secondary and move the ball in chunks, score over the top (like Penn State last year on two of its score), forget it. This defense needs to make the Golden Gophers earn every yard and avoid giving up the big play.
In addition, if Joe Milton throws more than one pick or U-M turns it over a few times … forget it.
AUSTIN FOX: If Milton doesn’t take care of the football and is turnover prone.
Even if U-M’s defense puts on a dominant effort, turnovers consistently destroy a team’s chances of winning and will do precisely that on Saturday night if he doesn’t protect the ball. We saw it in 2017 when the Wolverines fielded an elite defense, but let it go to waste by suffering through poor quarterback play and a turnover-prone offense (among other things), leading to a five-loss campaign.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: If Minnesota is able to find success scoring on multiple big plays, it will win. A knock on U-M defensive coordinator Don Brown is that, at times, his defenses are "don't bend, break." They shut everything down, until they don't. With the Gophers' potent passing attack, they're going to drive the length of the field at least a couple times, but the goal needs to be to not allow receivers Rashod Bateman and Chris Autumn-Bell to get behind the defense.
Over under on 175 total rushing yards for Michigan … and which back leads the attack, and with how many yards?
CHRIS BALAS: Over … and it needs to be. There’s a solid stable of backs here, and all we’ve heard all offseason is how hard they’re working to make safeties miss, turn seven-yard gains into 30-yard gains, etc., something we haven’t seen enough of in Ann Arbor for too long.
Sophomore Zach Charbonnet will likely get the starting nod, but look for healthy doses of Chris Evans and Hassan Haskins, too. The right side of line in particular should move people. Charbonnet finishes with 20 carries for 115 yards against a revamped Minnesota defense.
AUSTIN FOX: Under, but just barely on this one. U-M’s group of running backs should be the best the program has had since 2007, and it would not be surprising to see Harbaugh rely on them early in the year as Milton gets settled in.
Minnesota’s rush defense is better, however, than some people are giving it credit for (finished 23rd nationally last year and brings back four players in its front seven who played at least 204 snaps), which could make it difficult for Michigan to run the ball.
We’ll peg sophomore Zach Charbonnet as the team’s leading rusher on Saturday night, with 80 yards. That may seem like a low total, but it’s not a knock on him; it’s simply due to the fact redshirt sophomore Hassan Haskins and fifth-year senior Chris Evans will likely see plenty of action as well.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Slightly over, but under 200. Sophomore Zach Charbonnet will lead U-M's stable of backs in carries, but it will ultimately be fifth-year senior Chris Evans who leads the group in yards in a triumphant return from a year off — he's good for at least one big run, especially against the Gophers. He'll finish the night with 90 yards and a score.
Which player we haven’t seen much of, other than Milton, are you most excited to see?
CHRIS BALAS: Linebacker Michael Barrett. We got used to Khaleke Hudson at Viper, but he plateaued down the stretch in his career. Barrett brings energy, athleticism … now we’re about to find out about his instincts, his blitzing ability, etc. We’ve heard a lot of good things about his ability to get to the football.
AUSTIN FOX: Freshman running back Blake Corum, because he’ll bring a dose of speed and burst to the backfield that none of the three other backs possess. His skill set will likely make him too good to keep off the field, despite playing in a crowded backfield with three other productive runners. Running backs coach Jay Harbaugh has already made it clear there will be a role for Corum in Michigan’s offense, and though it may start out as a small one on Saturday night, it’s going to be exciting every time he touches the ball.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Fifth-year senior center Andrew Vastardis. This isn't a sexy pick, but he's the leader of a relatively inexperienced offensive line trying to get up to speed quickly. How he commands the group, calls out the protections and executes his blocks will go a long way in determining how smooth the offense runs.
We saw a bit of Vastardis last year when he came in briefly for Cesar Ruiz in the Michigan State game, where he helped lead a 98-yard scoring drive, but we still don't know a lot about the way he plays. We've heard great things, and it'll be exciting to watch him try to seize the moment in his first start.
Who will be Michigan’s MVP on offense in the opener? On Defense?
CHRIS BALAS: Running back Zach Charbonnet on offense. Many shrugged their shoulders at his 2019 campaign, one in which he rushed for 726 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry despite missing a gear. He’s now back, healthy and hungry and will be U-M’s chain mover Saturday night.
On defense, junior Aidan Hutchinson is going to have a field day against Minnesota’s backup offensive linemen. If they double him with a tight end, it opens things up for senior Kwity Paye.
Both of these guys should have big games.
AUSTIN FOX: Charbonnet, because he may be the player Michigan’s offense relies on most heavily to move the ball consistently. Jay Harbaugh confirmed the sophomore is finally healthy after playing last year banged up, and it’s fair to expect him to be the primary ball carrier in Michigan’s crowded backfield.
We’ll give redshirt sophomore linebacker Cam McGrone the nod on the defensive side of the ball. Junior defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and senior defensive end Kwity Paye get most of the attention when fans discuss the best overall players on U-M’s defense, but McGrone might be at the forefront of that discussion come season’s end. It will be imperative for Michigan to slow down the Golden Gophers’ rushing attack and not let them get into a rhythm, and McGrone will be one of the key cogs in doing so. He could play a role in slowing down Minnesota’s passing attack as well.
Granted, Gopher tight ends only caught 10 passes last year, but P.J. Fleck nevertheless played four different players at the position who received at least 114 snaps on the year.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Junior wideout Ronnie Bell on offense. When plays broke down last year, he was the go-to target for Shea Patterson. For a guy who has the ability to make big plays with his arm, there's going to be times on Saturday when he just has to make the smart play, and more often than not, that could be Bell on an underneath route to move the chains. He should see plenty of targets.
On defense, it'll be senior defensive end Kwity Paye. With the rumor (and almost near certainty) that Minnesota will be without right guard Curtis Dunlap Jr. and right tackle Daniel Faalele, Paye and junor end Aidan Hutchinson are likely licking their chops to go up against that right side of the Gopher line. They'll both be disruptive, but expect Paye to have an especially great start to his senior campaign.
What do you expect Joe Milton’s numbers to be in the opener, and what’s good enough to win?
CHRIS BALAS: Milton goes 14-for-26 for 195 yards with a touchdown and a pick in his first game, just a bit under 60 percent on a bitter cold night in Minneapolis. He’ll have a few chunk plays in there, as well … and IF the running game is clicking, that should be good enough to win.
Anything less than that, it gets sketchy.
AUSTIN FOX: 14-of-23 for 184 yards with one touchdown and two picks. Those aren’t necessarily pretty statistics, and a rocky first start for Milton shouldn’t come as a surprise when considering he’s thrown just 11 career passes. If the Wolverines are to come out on top, Milton’s statistics will probably look more like this: a 60 completion percentage or better, 200-plus yards, at least one touchdown pass and — most importantly — zero interceptions.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: I predict Milton to complete 60 percent of his passes for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns, which is nowhere near the bare minimum standard he needs to play at in order to leave Minneapolis with the Little Brown Jug in hand. As mentioned earlier, if he can take care of the football and make the easy plays, in addition to a few chunk yardage gains on throws down field, the U-M offense should be just fine.
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