The Tale Of The Tape: What The Analytics Say About Michigan And MSU

The No. 15 ranked Michigan Wolverines (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten) are coming off of a bye week heading into a rivalry matchup with in-state foe Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten). The Wolverines have won two straight games, both in blowout fashion, over Notre Dame, 45-14 and Maryland, 38-7.

MSU, on the other hand, is losers of four straight and will look to win its first game since Sept. 28.

We take a look at what the analytics say about the Wolverines and the Spartans.

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The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Michigan: 12th nationally with a 19.5 FPI score

Michigan State: 25th nationally with a 9.5 FPI score

Michigan edges out Michigan State in FPI (shown above) and is the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, according to ESPN Team Efficiency scores.

Michigan

Overall: 15th in team efficiency with a score of 76.6

Offense: 39th in offensive efficiency with a score of 60.5

Defense: 8th in defensive efficiency with a score of 81.7

Michigan State

Overall: 43rd in team efficiency with a score of 61.2.

Offense: 61st in offensive efficiency with a score of 51.5

Defense: 30th in defensive efficiency with a score of 68.4

Analysis: Not surprisingly, U-M ranks ahead in both FPI and efficiency in each area. Both teams lean on their defenses, but MSU has slipped a bit in that area this season. Even so, MSU will likely try to shorten the game, play for field position and make the Wolverines score on long drives against what is still a solid defense.

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The SP+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for SP+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives.

Michigan: 15th ranked with a SP+ rating of 19.9

Michigan State: 35th ranked with a SP+ rating of 9.8

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.

Michigan

Overall: 15th ranked with a FEI score of .67

Offense: 43rd ranked with an OFEI score of .41

Defense: 7th ranked with a DFEI score of .93

Michigan State

Overall: 30th ranked with a FEI score of .39

Offense: 70th ranked with an OFEI .08

Defense: 12th ranked with a DFEI score of .72

Analysis: MSU's defense is ranked highly in these metrics. It could cause U-M's offense problems, but it is hard to imagine MSU's defense moving the ball on the top-10 U-M defense.