Michigan State limps into Ann Arbor on a four-game losing streak, having scored 17 points in the entire month of October and then blowing a 28-3 fourth-quarter lead in a 37-34 home loss to Illinois Nov. 9 in its last game.
The Spartans are a “wounded animal,” head coach Mark Dantonio said before MSU’s contest with the Illini, and if that latest “thud” they heard didn’t make roadkill out of them, a loss in Ann Arbor certainly would.
But that’s what makes MSU somewhat dangerous. This team is not very talented, it is devoid of playmakers at just about every position on offense and it is beaten up on the offensive line. They’ll get some of their O-linemen back for this one, it appears, but those guys aren’t very good either and should have their hands full with U-M’s fast defense.
Still, the Spartans have been a .500 program since the start of the 2016 season (24-23), and their season now comes down to upsetting a better Michigan team. U-M won’t be winning the Big Ten, but this group is still playing for a bowl game not named after a local credit union or a 10-minute oil change.
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In short, the rivalry appears on its way to, well, back to normal — but as we saw two years ago, Michigan State is capable of stealing a game its team has no business winning in Ann Arbor.
Here’s what the Wolverines need to do to prevent that from happening this season:
Don’t let MSU shorten the game: Maryland got off to a horrible start in Michigan’s 38-7 win, but the Terps kept U-M’s offense off the field in long stretches by getting four to six yards on first and second downs and keeping the chains moving. They could have made a game of it with more red-zone success.
Dantonio will have some tricks up his sleeve, no doubt — we’ve seen a throwback screen, a reverse pass to a quarterback and a leak out to a little-used fullback go for touchdowns over the years — but he knows the best way for his team to win is to control the clock and play to his defense.
The best way to do that is to milk the clock and keep the chains moving, win the field position battle and make the U-M offense start from deeper in its own end, where they won’t be able to take as many chances (and probably won’t).
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh knows turnovers are the one sure way to make this a game — it took five and a number of other miscues to allow the Spartans to pull out a 14-10 win in a monsoon two seasons ago — and he’s likely to play it closer to the vest deep in his own end.
Interior rush defense will be big in this one. Expect MSU to go heavy up front and try to run the ball for success on early downs.
Get a Penn State or Notre Dame type performance from senior quarterback Shea Patterson: Minus the interception at PSU on a screen pass, of course. That game, a 28-21 road loss, showed us what we all expected from Patterson as Michigan’s starting quarterback. He threw the ball with confidence and authority, hit a number of intermediate range passes and took some deep shots.
It helped, of course, that he had time to throw, and protection up front is also going to be important. But this offensive line group has seen the Spartans’ ‘A’-gap (and other) blitzes and knows what to expect. MSU hasn’t gotten to the quarterback a lot this year and shouldn’t Saturday.
From there, it’s up to Patterson to make the right reads and throws. He’s been hit and miss in that respect this year, but if he plays well, U-M wins going away.
Contain Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke: MSU’s senior is a capable runner, and it was his big plays with his feet that led to the Spartans’ scores two years ago in Ann Arbor. He’s shown he’s still capable this season, rushing for 78 yards in a win over Indiana and 96, including a 42-yard touchdown scamper, in Saturday’s loss to Illinois.
Michigan’s defenders spoke this week of how far they’ve come in defending mobile quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Don Brown has done a stellar job with adjustments both in that area and with teams trying to exploit his man-to-man defense on crossing routes. We’d bet against Lewerke breaking any big runs this time around.
That, of course, also means maintaining lanes in the pass rush and not letting the quarterback escape. He should be under pressure often when he goes back to pass — they can’t let him out.
The Breakdown: Michigan Wolverines Football vs. Michigan State
This is a game Michigan would win nine times out of 10, maybe even 14 out of 15, but Dantonio always saves his best for the Wolverines, just like Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel (his “tragic hero” and mentor) did back in the day. There will be wrinkles, risks and trick plays, none of which will work if U-M’s players handle their assignments, trust their eyes and do what they’re taught.
Get lulled to sleep on even a play or two and the Spartans can take advantage ... and then, anything can happen.
As we’ve seen, this Michigan offense is capable of going for long stretches without scoring. The Wolverines seemed to turn a corner in a 45-14 drubbing of Notre Dame, but they weren’t explosive at Maryland; more like methodical.
If they play a clean game, the Wolverines should emerge with a comfortable win.
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