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Previewing Michigan vs. Michigan State With A Spartan Insider

TheWolverine.com caught up with Paul Konyndyk of SpartanMag.com to get some insight on No. 8 Michigan State ahead of its game against No. 6 Michigan this Saturday.

Konyndyk provided a rundown of the Spartans' projected starting lineup, discussed the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and gave a final score prediction.

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Michigan State Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne
Michigan State Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne is on the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award watch list. (USA TODAY Sports Images)
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Michigan State's Projected Starters On Offense

• Redshirt sophomore QB Payton Thorne — He has completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,701 yards and 15 touchdowns with four interceptions, three of which have come in the last two games (at Rutgers and at Indiana). The third-year player is averaging 20.4 yards per attempt on throws that travel 20-plus yards past the line of scrimmage in the air.

• Junior RB Kenneth Walker III — The Heisman Trophy contender and Wake Forest transfer is the nation's second-leading rusher with 997 yards, and he's added nine touchdowns on the ground. He also leads the country with 733 yards after contact (4.82 yards after contact per attempt), per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Redshirt junior WR Jayden Reed — The Western Michigan transfer also features at punt returner and has racked up 210 return yards and two scores. An outside receiver, he leads the Spartans in receiving with 27 receptions for 562 yards and five touchdowns. His 20.8 yards-per-reception average is ninth in the country and tops the Big Ten.

• Redshirt junior WR Jalen Nailor — The outside receiver opposite of Reed is the 46th receiver in MSU history to total more than 1,000 receiving yards for his career. He's notched 27 catches for 512 yards and a team-leading six touchdown grabs.

• Redshirt sophomore WR Tre Mosley — The slot receiver has compiled 21 catches for 321 yards.

• Fifth-year senior TE Connor Heyward — The former running back has 16 catches for 145 yards and holds a below-average 58.9 PFF run-blocking rating.

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• Senior LT Jarrett Horst — The Arkansas State transfer has registered a 77.6 PFF pass-blocking grade that slots second on the team among players who have played more than 35 snaps, and his 67.5 overall grade ranks 15th on the offense. He has not allowed a sack this season.

• Junior LG J.D. Duplain — Set to start his 23rd career game, his 83.5 PFF pass-blocking rating leads the team, while he's posted a 68.8 overall mark that slots 13th on the unit. He has allowed one sack on the year.

• Sixth-year senior C Matt Allen — He's opened 24 career contests and ranks 20th on the offense with a 63.7 overall PFF grade (58.4 pass blocking and 58.4 run blocking). He hasn't yielded a sack this season.

• Fifth-year senior RG Kevin Jarvis — The team's top-rated starting offensive lineman on PFF has started 34 career contests and ranks 11th on the offense with a 71.8 overall grade, while generating a 70.3 pass-blocking mark and 70.1 run-blocking rating. He has yielded one sack and a team-high seven pressures on the year.

• Sixth-year senior RT AJ Arcuri — He's started 19 contests in his career. The Senior Bowl watch list member is 16th on the offense with a 66.1 overall PFF grade, and he ranks third among starting linemen with a 74.6 pass-blocking rating and a 69.2 run-blocking mark. He has given up one sack and two pressures this season.

Michigan State's Projected Starters On Defense

• Redshirt junior DT Jacob Slade — He's totaled 22 tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack, one quarterback hurry and one pass breakup, while registering an 84.0 overall PFF grade that leads the defense and 23 pressures (second on the unit). He primarily lines up at three-technique (B-gap).

• Redshirt freshman DT Simeon Barrow — He's seventh on the team with 23 stops and has 2.5 sacks, two quarterback hurries and one pass breakup. His 18 pressures are the third-most on the unit.

• Fifth-year senior DT Jacub Panasiuk — The second-team midseason All-American (The Athletic) has an NCAA-leading 45 pressures, according to PFF, and team-bests in tackles for loss (8.5) and sacks (5.5), with 23 total tackles. His 79.6 overall PFF grade ranks third on the unit.

• Sophomore DE Jeff Pietrowksi — He's posted 20 tackles, including 4.5 stops for loss, 3.5 sacks, two quarterback hurries, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, while adding 15 pressures.

• Junior LB Quavaris Crouch — The weak-side linebacker and Tennessee transfer has compiled 52 tackles (third on the team), two tackles for loss, two sacks, three quarterback hurries, two pass breakups, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. His 56.1 overall PFF grade ranks dead last on the defense.

• Redshirt freshman LB Cal Haladay — The strong-side linebacker is fourth on the team with 48 tackles, and has added 2.5 stops for loss, two pass breakups, one interception, one quarterback hurry, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.

• Sophomore NB Darius Snow — He's fifth on the team with 33 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, and has made one interception. He has allowed 22 receptions, 120 yards and one touchdown on 28 targets in coverage.

• Senior CB Ronald Williams Jr. — The Alabama transfer has 23 tackles, two stops for loss, four pass breakups and one sack. He's allowed 30 receptions for 337 yards and two touchdowns on 57 challenges in coverage.

• Junior CB Chester Kimbrough — The Florida transfer has 23 tackles, two tackles for loss, one interception, two pass breakups, one quarterback hurry, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. In coverage, he's yielded 22 receptions for 324 yards and one score on 37 targets.

• Sophomore S Angelo Grose — He's second on the Spartans with 53 tackles, and leads the squad with six pass breakups. As a free safety in coverage, he's given up 12 receptions for 82 yards on 24 challenges.

• Senior S Xavier Henderson — The second-team midseason All-American (The Athletic) leads the unit with 60 tackles and is second with seven stops for loss, while adding two sacks, one interception, one pass breakup and one forced fumble. A strong safety, he's yielded 22 catches for 150 yards on 30 targets.

Michigan State's Specialists

• Fifth-year senior K Matt Coughlin — He's made 10 of 15 field goal attempts, with a long of 51 yards. On kickoffs, he's notched 37 touchbacks on 46 boots.

• Fifth-year senior P Bryce Baringer — He's averaging 49.2 yards per punt on 31 kicks for the year, with 14 boots of 50-plus yards. He has pinned the opponent inside its own 20-yard line on 11 occasions.

Top Strength Of The Michigan State Offense

Michigan State has some of the top skill position players in the Big Ten, led by a strong rushing game and big-play receivers on the outside. The Spartans rank 50th nationally in passing offense (251.3 yards per game) and 32nd in rushing (200.4 yards per contest). Able to hit opponents with both aspects of the game, MSU has a tough attack to stop.

"The strength of Michigan State’s offense to this point of the season has been its run-pass balance," Konyndyk explained. "There has been a pretty even split between first downs via the run (68) and first downs via the pass (64) through seven games. Starting out the season, the Spartans were more run heavy than they are now, and as teams have adjusted to take the run away, Michigan State’s receivers have done a nice job exploiting favorable coverage match-ups.

"Junior wideouts Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor, who have combined for more than 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns to this point in the season, are explosive outside threats with big-play potential. Sophomore quarterback Payton Thorne throws the deep ball as well as anyone in the Big Ten. When the Kenneth Walker III-led running game is producing consistently, Thorne has done a nice job of getting the ball to his playmakers via the play-action game.

"Obviously, for Michigan State to be at its best on offense, the Spartans need to run the football effectively to have balance on offense. This Michigan State offense, however, has the capacity to score points in a one-dimensional football game with playmakers at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Defenses can’t just take away one thing, and put Michigan State on ice."

Biggest Weakness Of The Michigan State Offense

While Michigan State has put up some solid numbers offensively, it struggled against the top two defenses it faced in Nebraska and Indiana, posting just 254 and 241 yards in those games, respectively. Michigan, which is ranked second nationally in scoring defense and 11th in yards allowed per game, will pose the biggest challenge yet.

"Michigan State doesn’t have one thing on offense that it can ride with from start-to-finish regardless of the talent level of its opponent," Konyndyk opined. "The Spartans have a much-improved run game, for example, and one of the best running backs in college football in Kenneth Walker III, but they haven’t always been able to sustain that run game from start to finish.

"Nebraska had success taking away the run, and more recently Indiana did a nice job frustrating the Spartan offensive line by stemming its defensive front right before the snap. So while there is no doubt that Michigan State has made vast improvements as an offense over the last year, there are still instances where opposing defenses have made the Spartans one-dimensional. In those instances, the Spartans have been able to get the plays necessary to win games, but the Michigan State offense has lacked consistency.

"Players believe their offense is still building, and can go head-to-head with any defense by merely doing simple things better. There isn’t one glaring weakness as much as a breakdown here or there by different players. During the bye week last week, the Spartan offense focused on tightening up the mechanics of basic plays that haven’t worked at various junctures of games based on execution. From their perspective, attention to detail is going to determine the outcome of this game."

Top Strength Of The Michigan State Defense

Michigan State has a stout front-seven that checks in at 11th in the country in pass rush and 15th in run defense, according to PFF. The Spartans average a Big Ten-best 6.3 tackles for loss per game, and have been effective at getting to the quarterback in passing situations, as Konyndyk points out.

"The strength of Michigan State’s defense is the defensive line," Konyndyk explained. "The Spartans have had a massive influx of new personnel via the NCAA Transfer portal, but with the exception of Duke transfer Drew Jordan, the Michigan State defensive line is comprised of guys that were in the program a year ago. The Spartans did lose Naquan Jones (Tennessee Titans) from their 2020 defense, but there is a lot of experience on the field in this group, and they are playing at a higher level than many expected them to play.

"Michigan State leads the Big Ten and ranks eighth in the FBS in sacks per game (3.71), and the Spartans are tied for first in FBS with Georgia in sacks against Power 5 teams (21).

"I’m not suggesting that Michigan State has a D-line that is comparable with Georgia’s, but the group is underrated nationally, and they’ve really gotten the job done this year. And that had to happen, with so many new faces in the back seven.

"Senior defensive end Jacub Panasiuk and junior defensive tackle Jacob Slade have been the most consistent playmakers on the D-line for Michigan State. Panasiuk leads the D-line with 5.5 sacks, and he has stepped up his production in the absence of senior Drew Beesley, who has played in just three games this season due to a lower-body injury suffered in a win over Nebraska.

"It is unclear whether Beesley will be back for Michigan State on Saturday. He has worked tirelessly to rehab his injury in hopes of playing against Michigan. Although the D-line has grown up a lot in his absence, the Spartans could really use Beesley in this game given Michigan’s physicality in the run game."

Biggest Weakness Of The Michigan State Defense

Most of the knocks on Michigan State's defense have surrounded the secondary, but Konyndyk explained that the bunch isn't as bad as some of the numbers indicate. However, there are question marks about how the Spartans will match up stylistically and personnel-wise with the Wolverines.

"On paper, it looks like Michigan State’s biggest weakness is pass defense. The group is giving up an average of 285 passing yards per game. But I think that number is deceiving because when you look at opponent yards per pass attempt, Michigan State ranks No. 12 in the FBS, and the Spartans have only allowed nine passing touchdowns this season, the same as Michigan.

"Starting out, I think Michigan State had some gelling to do in the secondary and in the back seven, beyond that. None of Michigan State’s top four corners were in the program a year ago, and at linebacker the Spartans are starting a redshirt freshman in Cal Haladay and transfer in Quavaris Crouch, who played a completely different scheme as a starter at Tennessee last season.

"As is the case with the Michigan State offense, I don’t think there is one area where the Spartans are elite on defense. That said, there isn’t really a glaring weakness either. The biggest issue for Michigan State in this game is probably schematic.

"Can Michigan State’s 4-2-5 defense stop a throwback run game that uses heavy personnel like three-tight-end sets?"

Konyndyk's Final Score Prediction

"The bye week came at the perfect time for Michigan State after playing seven straight games, most of which were on the road," Konyndyk began. "The Spartans always play up in this rivalry game, and I don’t expect that to be any different on Saturday. Both teams are far better than they were a year ago when Michigan State used big plays to capture the Paul Bunyan Trophy in Ann Arbor in a game where nobody gave the Spartans much of a chance to pull off an upset.

"I think that Michigan’s blunt-force running game is going to be a problem for Michigan State in this game, and I’d feel better about picking the Spartans if I knew that Drew Beesley was available to play and capable of playing at the level he was playing prior to his injury.

"We keep hearing each week that Michigan State hasn’t come close to playing its best game, and I think that’s probably true. Coming off the bye week, I think there is a good chance that we’ll see the Spartans play at a higher level on both sides of the ball than they’ve played to this point.

"I think these two teams are fairly similar in that they’ve played schedules that have allowed them to keep improving and building into good football teams. I think Michigan has an advantage on the ground, but also a potential disadvantage in being too run-heavy. I think Michigan State has an advantage at quarterback and at the wide receiver position, and I expect the Spartans to have enough success running the football to give Michigan State receivers opportunities to make plays downfield.

"I expect Michigan State to be at its best coming off the bye week, and that’s the primary reason why I am picking the Spartans to win a close one."

Prediction: Michigan State 20, Michigan 17

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