Previewing Michigan vs. Northwestern With A Wildcat Insider

TheWolverine.com caught up with Michael Fitzpatrick of Wildcat Report to get some insight on Northwestern ahead of its game at Michigan Saturday.

Fitzpatrick projected the Wildcats' starting lineup, broke down their strengths and weaknesses, and provided a final score prediction.

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• Sophomore QB Ryan Hilinski — The South Carolina transfer took over the starting duties four games into the season, replacing senior Hunter Johnson. Hilinski has completed 57 of 99 passes (57.6 percent) for 645 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

• Sophomore RB Evan Hull — His 93.7 rushing yards per game (562 yards on 95 attempts in six contests) rank 28th in the country, but it's important to note that 342 of his 562 yards and all four of his touchdowns came against Indiana State and Ohio, an FCS school and MAC team, respectively.

• Senior WR JJ Jefferson — He returned from an injury last week and totaled three catches for 44 yards against the Scarlet Knights. He had 22 receptions for 336 yards and four touchdowns in 19 games during the 2018 and 2019 campaigns combined, before opting out of the 2020 season.

• Fifth-year senior WR Stephon Robinson Jr. — The Kansas transfer and outside receiver leads the team with 28 grabs for 424 yards and two touchdowns. He's accumulated more than 100 receiving yards in each of the last two games (Nebraska and Rutgers).

• Junior WR Malik Washington — He's second on the squad with 255 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 18 receptions, primarily lining up in the slot.

• Sophomore TE Marshall Lang — Two of his four catches on the season have gone for touchdowns. He's totaled 37 yards and posted a 48.7 PFF run-blocking grade, which is considered poor.

• Sophomore LT Peter Skoronski — The Athlon Sports preseason fourth-team All-American has started 15 career games. His 80.3 PFF pass-blocking grade tops the team, while his 69.7 run-blocking rating checks in third among starting offensive linemen and is considered above average. He has allowed one sack and two hits on the quarterback this season.

• Sophomore LG Josh Priebe — He's opened five career games. His 65.6 PFF run-blocking rating ranks sixth among the team's offensive linemen, while he's struggled in pass protection (50.2 grade), allowing 10 pressures (eight hurries and two hits) on 151 pass-blocking snaps.

• Senior C Sam Gerak — The Rimington Award watch list member and team captain has started 26 career contests. His 69.9 PFF run-blocking grade is the third-best among the squad's offensive linemen, but his 31.3 pass-blocking mark is inadequate. He has allowed three pressures on 206 pass-blocking downs.

• Junior RG Charlie Schmidt — He's started seven career outings. Posting a 68.2 overall PFF grade, his 76.2 run-blocking rating slots second on the team and his 37.8 run-blocking mark checks in fourth among starting offensive linemen. He has yielded 11 pressures on 233 pass-blocking snaps.

• Senior RT Ethan Wiederkehr — He's set to make his 15th career start. Perhaps the most steady lineman on the team to this point, he's posted a 74.3 PFF pass-blocking rating (second among starting offensive linemen) and a 68.3 run-blocking grade (fourth). He has given up eight pressures on 233 pass-blocking plays.

• Senior DT Trevor Kent — He's registered seven tackles and one quarterback hurry, while notching nine pressures, according to PFF. His 60.0 overall rating ranks 20th on the defense.

• Fifth-year senior DT Jeremy Meiser — The Old Dominion transfer is 11th on the squad with 16 tackles, while leading the team with four sacks and adding six stops for loss. He has also generated one pass breakup, a quarterback hurry and 13 total pressures.

• Junior DE Adetomiwa Adebawore — According to PFF, he's 32nd nationally with 24 pressures, while his 81.9 pass-rushing grade tops his unit. He leads the Wildcats with seven tackles for loss, including 3.5 sacks, and has totaled 22 stops, two pass breakups and two forced fumbles.

• Fifth-year senior DE Samdup Miller — He's played in four games, recording 20 tackles, 2.5 stops for loss, 1.5 sacks and one pass breakup, with a 75.2 overall PFF grade that slots second on the defense.

• Senior LB Peter McIntyre — He's fourth on the defense with 36 tackles, including three behind the line of scrimmage.

• Sophomore LB Bryce Gallagher — He tallied 10 tackles, 2.5 stops for loss and one sack last week against Rutgers. His 38 stops rank third on the team, and he's added three stops for loss, one sack and one quarterback hurry.

• Fifth-year senior LB Chris Bergin — His 63 tackles lead the team by 23, and his 10.5 stops per contest top the Big Ten. He's also notched one interception, one pass breakup and a forced fumble, and has registered five pressures.

• Junior CB A.J. Hampton Jr. — He's seventh on the team with 21 tackles, and leads the squad with eight pass breakups, while also adding a forced fumble. His 75.9 PFF coverage grade tops the team, and he's yielded 19 receptions for 193 yards and one touchdown on 35 targets.

• Sophomore CB Cameron Mitchell — He's accumulated 28 tackles, two pass breakups, one quarterback hurry, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery, while posting a 68.4 PFF coverage rating that ranks fourth on the squad. He has allowed 19 receptions for 189 yards and one touchdown on 29 targets.

• Sophomore S Coco Azema — He's fifth on the unit with 32 tackles, while adding 1.5 stops for loss (all of which came last week against Rutgers), one pass breakup and a forced fumble. In coverage, according to PFF, he's yielded 10 receptions for 130 yards on 11 challenges.

• Sophomore S Brandon Joseph — The 2020 first-team All-American is second on the team with 40 tackles, and has posted one interception, two pass breakups and one forced fumble. He has eight QB pressures, and has given up 18 catches for 173 yards on 20 targets.

• Fifth-year senior K Charlie Kuhbander — He's connected on 4 of 8 field goals on the season with a long of 47 yards. His other three made kicks came within 29 yards.

• Fifth-year senior P Derek Adams — He's averaging 42.9 yards per punt, with a long of 55 yards, 11 pins inside the opponent's 20 yard line and seven boots of 50-plus yards.

While Northwestern's offense ranks 95th nationally with 203.3 passing yards per game, the downfield attack is coming along, Fitzpatrick said.

Sophomore quarterback Ryan Hilinski has seen 56 of his 99 attempts be passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage through the air. However, he's aired it out on occasion, connecting on 10 of his 22 attempts of medium distance (10-19 yards in the air) for 233 yards and a score, and hitting on three of his 11 throws of 20-plus yards in the air, with one touchdown and 107 yards on those plays.

"The strength so far has honestly been their downfield passing game," Fitzpatrick opined. "It’s been surprising considering it hasn’t been a part of a lot of NU offenses in recent years. Wildcat QBs have been willing to take shots downfield and receivers, especially [fifth-year senior] Stephon Robinson Jr., have been able to make plays. [Senior] JJ Jefferson, Robinson Jr. and [junior] Malik Washington all had receptions of over 20 yards last week. It’s provided a spark to an offense that has been stagnant often times."

Credit the starting receivers for coming down with tough plays, with the trio combining to make six contested catches on 14 attempts, per PFF.

Northwestern's offensive line may have its hands full with the nation's second-highest-rated front-seven according to PFF. The Wildcats slot 81st in the country in pass blocking, yielding 1.8 sacks per contest, and 31st in run blocking, per the advanced analytics site.

"They’ve struggled in pass protection all year, and NU was largely unable to run the ball against Rutgers," Fitzpatrick said of the group. "It’s dealt with a good number of injuries this year as a unit, making it hard to find consistency up front."

A team that lost its two top tacklers from last season to the NFL, Northwestern returns the most production on the back end of its defense, led by one of the nation's top defensive backs.

"They have a trio of experienced corners to go along with an All-American safety in [sophomore] Brandon Joseph," Fitzpatrick explained. "Joseph has still been the Wildcats' best defender this year, despite not putting up gaudy interception numbers like he did a year ago.

"[Sophomore] Coco Azema is the other safety and is more of a downhill, physical player, who has been an asset in run support.

"Altogether, it’s a unit that has the potential to make game-changing plays. They just haven’t made a lot of those plays yet, with Joseph and [senior] reserve safety Bryce Jackson combining for the only two interceptions from the defensive backs this season."

The Wildcats are allowing 205.2 yards per game through the air, a mark that ranks 42nd in the sport, and have only yielded 200 yards or more passing in two of six contests.

An important storyline for this season in Evanston is the change in defensive play-caller, after the retirement of Mike Hankwitz — a former Michigan player and graduate assistant who led the Wildcat defense from 2008-20. Losing his presence has had an impact on the entire side of the ball, Fitzpatrick revealed, and the new system is still a work in progress.

"They’ve struggled to find an identity with a new defensive coordinator," he stated. "[First-year coordinator] Jim O’Neil came to Evanston and hoped to leave his mark by switching the Wildcats to a team that played mostly nickel. That did not work as [Michigan State junior running back] Kenneth Walker III and anyone who touched the ball for Nebraska ran all over the Cats defense."

However, Fitzpatrick said, a change was made before the squad's 21-7 win over Rutgers.

"Coming out of the bye, they stayed in a base 4-3 for almost every snap against Rutgers, and played their best game of the season," he said.

"There were almost no plays where Northwestern looked out of position, which plagued them early in the season. The linebackers were all over the field making tackles. It felt like Northwestern defense. If they can stick with this 4-3 identity and keep playing well, it will be a huge boost to a unit that has struggled."

The Scarlet Knights rushed for just 63 yards on 34 carries, and mustered up only 159 yards through the air.

"If the defense steps up and plays well again, NU can hang around and give themselves a chance," Fitzpatrick projected. "The running game is the key on offense and it struggled to get going last week. A one-dimensional NU offense without their second-best receiver, [sophomore wideout] Bryce Kirtz, just doesn’t have enough juice to pull the upset."

Prediction: Michigan 27, Northwestern 16

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