Previewing Michigan vs. Wisconsin With A Badger Insider

TheWolverine.com caught up with Wisconsin insider Jon McNamara of BadgerBlitz.com to preview the Badgers' home game against the Michigan Wolverines Saturday afternoon (12 p.m. ET on FOX).

McNamara broke down what has gone right and what has gone wrong for 1-2 Wisconsin so far this year, gave his final score prediction and more.

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• Sophomore QB Graham Mertz — He's completed 54 of 95 passes for 566 yards and one touchdown with six interceptions. He has thrown an interception on 6.3 percent of his tosses, the highest mark in the nation.

• Junior RB Chez Mellusi — He leads the team with 319 yards and two touchdowns on 69 carries, averaging 4.6 yards per rush with a long of 60 yards.

• Senior FB John Chenal — He has five rushes for 13 yards, and his 62.6 PFF run-blocking grade is considered just below average (64.0 is average).

• Senior WR Danny Davis III — The Reese's Senior Bowl watch list member leads the Badgers in receptions (16) and receiving yards (193), averaging 12.1 yards per catch. He lines up wide on 67 percent of his snaps and in the slot 33 percent of the time, per PFF.

• Senior WR Kendric Pryor — Another Senior Bowl watch list honoree, he has caught 11 passes for 134 yards and has the team's lone receiving score. He is a threat in the run game, too, with two carries for 17 yards this season and five rushing touchdowns in his career. He lines up out wide on 96.8 percent of his plays.

• Senior TE Jake Ferguson — The preseason fourth-team All-American (Phil Steele) has 13 receptions for 80 yards, while posting a below-average 55.1 PFF run-blocking rating.

• Senior LT Tyler Beach — The 2020 All-Big Ten honorable mention has started 11 career games. His 58.8 PFF grade ranks 22nd on the offense, with a team-low 19.1 pass-blocking rating and 71.0 run-blocking mark that slots fifth on the squad. He has allowed a team-high five quarterback hurries.

• Senior LG Josh Seltzner — The former walk-on has started 10 career games, and ranks eighth on the unit with a 75.0 overall PFF grade.

• Sophomore C Joe Tippmann — He is set to make his fourth career start. His 77.2 overall PFF grade ranks fifth on the offense, and his 77.2 pass-blocking rating checks in fourth.

• Redshirt freshman RG Jack Nelson — The second-year player has three starts and just four career appearances, having posted a 66.4 overall PFF grade on the year that is considered about average.

• Senior RT Logan Bruss — The Outland Trophy watch list member and 2020 third-team All-Big Ten honoree ranks ninth on the offense with a 72.6 overall PFF rating, while topping the team in pass blocking (83.3) and slotting fourth in run blocking (71.2). He is projected to make his 29th career start Saturday.

• Junior DT Keeanu Benton — He has registered four tackles, with 1.5 for loss and a half-sack, and two pass breakups, while notching three hits on the quarterback.

• Senior DE Matt Henningsen — The William V. Campbell Trophy semifinalist is fourth on the team in tackles (seven) and second in stops behind the line of scrimmage (four), with two sacks and one pass breakup. His 73.8 overall PFF rating ranks fourth on the defense.

• Junior DE Isaiah Mullens — He has posted five stops, including a half-tackle for loss, and one quarterback hurry. His 72.8 overall PFF mark ranks seventh on the unit.

• Sophomore OLB Nick Herbig — He has recorded seven tackles, 3.5 sacks and one quarterback hurry, with a 74.1 PFF pass-rushing rating that slots fourth on the team.

• Senior OLB Noah Burks — The sixth-year player who has appeared in 45 career contests has compiled seven stops, including two tackles for loss, while posting an above-average 69.0 PFF grade that ranks 10th on the defense.

• Senior LB Jack Sanborn — The 2020 third-team All-Big Ten standout leads the team with five tackles for loss and ranks second with 11 total stops, while also adding two quarterback hurries and one fumble recovery. His 81.9 overall PFF grade slots third on the defense, while his 84.6 pass-rushing mark tops the team. According to PFF, he has notched nine pressures on 45 pass-rushing snaps.

• Junior LB Leo Chenal — The 2020 All-Big Ten honorable mention and brother of the team's starting fullback has totaled eight tackles, one stop for loss and a forced fumble. His 85.5 PFF rating leads the defense, while his 92.4 rush-defense grade ranks second among the nation's linebackers.

• Senior CB Faion Hicks — The 2020 All-Big Ten honorable mention left last week's game against Notre Dame with an injury and is listed as "questionable" for Saturday. He has eight tackles, one quarterback hurry and a team-leading four passes defended on the season. According to PFF, he has been targeted 19 times in coverage, yielding 10 catches for 144 yards and one touchdown.

• Senior CB Caesar Williams — The 2020 third-team All-Big Ten pick has seven tackles, while allowing six receptions for 107 yards on nine targets according to PFF.

• Senior SS Collin Wilder — He's notched six tackles on the year. He has allowed four receptions for 29 yards on five targets while in coverage.

• Senior FS Scott Nelson — He's posted a team-leading 13 tackles, one stop for loss and two pass breakups, while yielding four catches for 82 yards and one touchdown on nine targets.

• Senior K Collin Larsch — He has connected on 5 of 7 field goal attempts this season, with a long of 43 yards, while hitting all six of his extra point tries.

• Senior P Andy Vujnovich — He has booted it away 14 times for 690 yards (49.3 yards per punt), with two kicks of 50 or more yards and four that he pinned inside the opponent's 20 yard line.

Wisconsin is known for its stellar run game, but the Badgers haven't posted gaudy numbers on the ground so far this season, churning out just 4.3 yards per carry. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz has struggled to this point, which has made life tough for the Badger attack.

"There’s not much to praise through three games when it comes to Wisconsin’s offense," McNamara admitted. "The group is 112th in the country in scoring offense (19.0) and 126th in third-down conversions (27.6 percent). There are veteran weapons in senior tight end Jake Ferguson and [senior wideouts] Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, but getting them the football has been difficult thus far."

Mertz's lackluster play has been the biggest knock on the offense this season, McNamara revealed, to the point that we may see a change at the quarterback spot.

"Quarterback play has been poor dating back to last season," McNamara explained. "[Sophomore] starter Graham Mertz has thrown six interceptions in UW’s games against Penn State and Notre Dame. He’s still the projected starter, but it will be interesting to see if [junior] backup Chase Wolf gets some work against Michigan on Saturday. And because of Mertz’s struggles, UW’s offensive play-calling has been vanilla and predictable."

The defense is most known for its stout front seven, which could slow down a Wolverine rushing game that ranks fifth nationally with an average of 290.8 yards per game on the ground.

"The entire unit is strong, but the Badgers are particularly good up front," McNamara said. "[Defensive coordinator] Jim Leonhard’s group is currently first in rushing defense at 23 yards per game, with inside linebackers [junior] Leo Chenal and [senior] Jack Sanborn leading the way. In the middle, [junior] tackle Keeanu Benton likely has the most NFL-upside on the entire roster."

With the rushing defense being strong, the formula to move the ball on the Badgers might be with the pass game, McNamara said, though the unit has still been solid, allowing just 187.3 passing yards per game (37th nationally).

"If you’re going to beat Wisconsin, it will likely be through the air," McNamra said. "UW is solid at cornerback with multi-year [senior] starters Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams, but teams have been able to find holes by beating its safeties over the top. [Senior safety] Scott Nelson played every defensive snap against Notre Dame, but look for fellow [senior] starting safety Collin Wilder to get spelled at times with [junior] backup John Torchio, who is a better option in coverage."

"Until proven wrong, I don’t have any confidence in UW’s offense against a good football team," McNamara said. "Jim Leonhard’s defense should keep this game close, but I think Michigan will connect on a few big plays late that will swing the game in its favor."

Prediction: Michigan 17, Wisconsin 10

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