The Michigan Wolverines football team is off to a 6-0 start this season, but the games that will define them follow a much-needed bye week that is currently underway.

Michigan has thrown itself into the mix for a Big Ten East title with games against Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State still coming soon to sort out the championship picture.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) still gives the Wolverines a favorable outlook with a record projection in the range of 10-2 and ranks them fifth in all of college football. FPI also gives Michigan a 17.6% chance of winning the conference and a 5.3% shot at going undefeated.

Six regular-season opponents remain. Let's reset the rankings from least to most difficult.

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The year-to-year up-down trend for Northwestern has continued in 2021. The Wildcats found a way to win the Big Ten West last season but have come down to earth. Wins over Indiana State and Ohio are the lone bright spots for Pat Fitzgerald's teams so far. Losses to Michigan State and Duke and Nebraska were tough and they are coming off of bye in Week 6. This is one of the worst teams in the Power Five and Michigan's biggest "gimme" the rest of the season.

Even when the Hoosiers are less talented than they are now, they have always given Michigan fits. Indiana was a preseason darling after its breakout 2020 season, but they are another program that has crashed this year. Indiana sits at 2-3 and now goes through a stretch where they play both Michigan State and Ohio State following a bye. There might not be anything left of them when they come to Ann Arbor in November.

The Terrapins were another upstart preseason pick and began the season with a 4-0 record, but have come crashing down to earth in spectacular fashion. Blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State, the likely favorites to play for a Big Ten title, exposed Maryland as a middle-to-low tier threat in the conference pecking order. They might be able to do some things in the passing game that test Michigan the week before The Game, but little else seems like a threat.

The Spartans and Wolverines are on an undefeated crash course. The only thing that stands in their way is a game at Indiana on Saturday and a Michigan win over Northwestern on Oct. 30. MSU is one of the most explosive offenses in the country and has burst onto the scene in a big way. This feels like a coin flip right and now and potentially the most consequential MSU/Michigan game in a very long time.

Penn State was another contending team that struggled to get off the ground in 2020 but rebounded in a big way. The Nittany Lions had Iowa on the ropes on Saturday afternoon until starting quarterback Sean Clifford went down to injury. If he remains out, Michigan's chances look much better in the showdown with PSU. FPI does not account for injuries, so we will have to wait and see how the next few weeks develop.

FPI had this game as a Michigan win for a few weeks, but OSU's resurgence over the last three games has tilted the odds back in the Buckeyes' favor. Michigan has to keep stacking wins and progress, then see what happens when the clock hits zero on Thanksgiving weekend.

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