Michigan Wolverines football will take on the Michigan State Spartans Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.
Here, we've set the stage for each aspect of the matchup between the Wolverines and Spartans, with a statistical and analytical breakdown, and give our take on who has the advantage in each area.
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MICHIGAN'S OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE'S DEFENSE
Pass Game
Here are some stats and analytics on Michigan's passing offense and Michigan State's pass defense, followed by our analysis.
Analysis: Michigan has run to set up the pass all season long, but if the Spartans make redshirt freshman quarterback Cade McNamara throw, there may be opportunities down the field. The Spartans have been susceptible, allowing 285.4 yards per game through the air, but the numbers also say they've held opponents to only 6.1 yards per attempt, 12th in the country.
Michigan's offensive line has held up strong this season, yielding just two sacks when McNamara's been in the game, but this will be a test similar to Wisconsin in terms of pass rush. Michigan State fifth-year senior defensive end Jacub Panasiuk leads the country in pressures, per PFF, and the Spartans are averaging nearly four sacks per game.
Advantage: Slight edge to Michigan State
Run Game
Here are some stats and analytics on Michigan's potent rushing offense and Michigan State's strong run defense, followed by our analysis.
Analysis: Michigan has been a ground-and-pound team this season, relying heavily on the duo of redshirt sophomore running back Hassan Haskins and second-year freshman Blake Corum, who each have 10 touchdowns and have combined for over 1,300 yards.
But again, this Michigan State front is strong, and Spartan head man Mel Tucker may stack the box — even though his unit primarily lines up in nickel personnel (five defensive backs) — in order to make Michigan throw.
The Wolverines have accumulated over 100 yards rushing in every game, and more than 290 yards in four of seven. It'll be paramount to keep that going in a rivalry that is predicated largely on who rushes better.
Advantage: Michigan
MICHIGAN STATE'S OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN'S DEFENSE
Pass Game
Here are some stats and analytics on Michigan State's pass game and Michigan's pass defense, followed by our take.
Analysis: Michigan hasn't been tested yet by a team that has an above average quarterback who does most of his damage with his arm and a group of wide receivers that are known for making plays down field. That will change Saturday, and we'll see how the Wolverines handle it.
Michigan State redshirt sophomore signal-caller Payton Thorne is averaging 20.4 yards per attempt on throws that travel 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage in the air, and junior wideouts Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor have been on the receiving end much of the time, possessing more speed on the outside than the Maize and Blue have faced.
Michigan's secondary has been solid, ranking 19th nationally in yards allowed through the air per game and yielding just seven passing plays of 30-plus yards, but Michigan State is an explosive offense that has six passing plays that have gone for 50-plus-yard gains.
What will aid Michigan's secondary is a pass rush that has been stellar, going up against a Michigan State offensive line that rotates guys in and out and hasn't been great. While they don't have the sack numbers that Michigan State does, the Wolverines have been pressuring opposing quarterbacks and forcing them to throw it quicker than they'd like. Having that is a defensive backfield's best friend.
Advantage: Michigan State
Run Game
Here are some stats and analytics on Michigan State's rushing game and Michigan's run defense, followed by our analysis.
Analysis: While Michigan State's offensive line has graded out fairly well, junior running back Kenneth Walker III has the country's most yards after contact and is tough to bring down. Michigan's defense has been strong against the run, but has also had some lapses as well, with the most recent and notable being allowing a 75-yard touchdown run last week against Northwestern. They''ll have to be in the right positions in this one, otherwise Walker will make them pay.
At the same time, Walker and the Michigan State run game has been much quieter against defenses ranked 56th or better. He was held to a combined 145 yards and zero touchdowns versus Nebraska and Indiana.
Advantage: Slight edge to Michigan
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