Tale Of The Tape: Sizing Up Michigan And Minnesota
The Michigan Wolverines and Minnesota Golden Gophers are both looking to start off their respective seasons on a high note by grabbing a season-opening win on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), but only one team will come out on top.
Here, we dive into some trends from around college football, before examining the analytics regarding both teams from a year ago and what each is bringing back, and a projection on how each squad's season will go, via ESPN's FPI metric.
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2020 College Football Trends
Even though fans are limited in college football this year, home teams are still seeing a considerable advantage, with road teams touting a record of 64-104 so far through seven weeks of the season.
Michigan is a 3-point favorite over Minnesota at most sportsbooks, per Vegas Insider. Away teams are 82-84-2 against the spread (ATS) in 2020, per Covers.com, and favorites are 73-93-2 ATS.
Even more interesting is that away favorites are 22-33-1 ATS, meaning home underdogs have a significant edge, which isn't a positive sign for the Wolverines heading into Saturday night.
Returning Starters
Here's a look at what each team has returning from a year ago:
Michigan has just three starters returning on offense, though plenty of the players stepping in have significant experience. On defense, the Wolverines bring back just five starters from a year ago.
Minnesota's offense is slated to return eight starters, though there's rumblings that both redshirt sophomore right guard Curtis Dunlap Jr. and junior right tackle Daniel Faalele may not play on Saturday. On defense, the Gophers have five starters from a year ago, but only two in the front seven. Three of the four in the defensive backfield are back, though safety Antoine Winfield Jr., now a starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, was a big loss this offseason when he declared early for the pros.
2019 Stats & Ranks
Minnesota
| Stat | Per Game | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
Scoring |
34.1 |
T-21 |
|
Rushing |
178.7 |
46 |
|
Passing |
253.3 |
47 |
|
Total |
432.0 |
42 |
Michigan
| Stat | Per Game | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
Scoring |
22.5 |
T-37 |
|
Rushing |
122.4 |
23 |
|
Passing |
184.2 |
9 |
|
Total |
306.6 |
10 |
Michigan
| Stat | Per Game | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
Scoring |
31.7 |
44 |
|
Rushing |
150.7 |
77 |
|
Passing |
250.8 |
50 |
|
Total |
401.5 |
58 |
| Stat | Per Game | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
Scoring |
20.7 |
25 |
|
Rushing |
121.7 |
22 |
|
Passing |
185.5 |
10 |
|
Total |
307.2 |
11 |
ESPN's Football Power Index
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
ESPN's FPI projected the results of each college football team heading into the 2020 season. The metric gives Michigan a 55.8 percent chance to win the game.
Michigan: 23rd nationally with a 11.2 FPI score
Minnesota: 27th nationally with a 9.4 FPI score
Minnesota Golden Gophers Top Returning Players
A close look at the Golden Gophers' top returning players based on their PFF grades from the 2019 season.
A note on PFF grades — a single-game grade of about 64 is considered average.
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