The Michigan Wolverines (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) host the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) on Saturday in a clash of two hated rivals. The Buckeyes come in as the No.1 team in the country, according to the College Football Playoff committee. They're ranked No. 1 in a multitude of other metrics, making it a tough challenge for U-M. There are some areas in which the Wolverines could exploit, however. We take a look at what the analytics say about the Wolverines and the Buckeyes
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Comparison: ESPN's Football Power Index
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
Michigan: 7th nationally with a 21.9 FPI score
Ohio State: 1st nationally with a 33.1 FPI score
Michigan
Overall: 12th in team efficiency with a score of 80.8
Offense: 23rd in offensive efficiency with a score of 70.0
Defense: 9th in defensive efficiency with a score of 80.6
Ohio State
Overall: 1st in team efficiency with a score of 97.2.
Offense: 2nd in offensive efficiency with a score of 94.6
Defense: 2nd in defensive efficiency with a score of 92.9
Analysis: Ohio State has a flawless record, and has been nearly flawless in a whole lot of areas. They're efficient (as shown above) and will be a huge challenge, even for a team like U-M team that also ranks highly in efficiency.
Comparison: Football Outsiders' SP+ Ratings
The SP+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for SP+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives.
Michigan: 10th ranked with a SP+ rating of 22.7
Ohio State: 1st ranked with a SP+ rating of 36.2
Football Outsiders' FEI Ratings
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
Michigan
Overall: 11th ranked with a FEI score of .81
Offense: 28th ranked with an OFEI score of .62
Defense: 6th ranked with a DFEI score of .96
Ohio State
Overall: 1st ranked with a FEI score of 1.60
Offense: 4th ranked with an OFEI score of 1.72
Defense: 2nd ranked with a DFEI score of 1.42
Analysis: The U-M defense struggled last year against the Buckeyes, giving up 62 points. This year, U-M ranks highly in defense, as well, and will need to play up to its capabilities if it wants to stop one of the best offenses in the country. The good news is, the Wolverines continue to climb the ranks in offense after a slow start to the year. If the defense keeps U-M in the game, the offense may score just enough points to win.
Michigan Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
The Ohio State defense ranks 1st nationally in overall defense with an 98.1 grade, according to PFF. U-M's offense ranks 30th in overall offense with a PFF grade of 80.8.
A note on PFF grades — a single-game grade of about 64 is considered average. National rank includes all FBS teams.
