What They're Saying Before Michigan's Showdown At Michigan State
Michigan Wolverines football will take on Michigan State Saturday afternoon in East Lansing for the first top-10 matchup in the series since 1964.
Here is a look around the country at what they're saying before kickoff.
RELATED: Staff Predictions: Michigan Wolverines Football At Michigan State
RELATED: Answering Nine Key Questions Before Michigan Plays Michigan State
Pat Forde, Sports Illustrated: This Time, Jim Harbaugh Is Having Fun
The “grit” of this group, to use Jim Harbaugh’s word, is all the more enjoyable after a 2020 undercut by what the coach saw as a lack of commitment from some members of his team. Four players opted out of the COVID-19-plagued season—some of them stars—six more transferred before the first game had been played, and Harbaugh alluded generally to others who might not have been all in as the season spiraled into a 2–4 mess.
“Without comparing, but last year was kind of an anomaly,” Harbaugh says. “You find yourself [with players who say], ‘I don’t want to play.’ What? You don’t want to play football? O.K., now we’re playing all these guys who really aren’t quite ready to play. Guys who should be getting 10 reps a game or 15 were getting 60 or 70. Now they’re playing all the time.
“It was very painful to go through, having guys who opted out or were—I don’t know, sore, or something. I just can’t go this week. This [in 2021] is just a group of guys who have become gritty, hard, tough. You have to pull them back. No, you can’t practice today instead of talking them into it. Maybe [they] saw some of that with guys who were bowing out. Where’s the fun in that?”
For Harbaugh, the fun is in surrounding himself with people who are as enthusiastically obsessed about winning football games as he has been his entire life. The 2021 mix of those people seems to be better suited—it’s certainly younger—than the ’20 mix.
“I like the guys that like football,” he says. “And the guys that like football, they all like me back. And the ones that don’t like me? They’re the ones that know that I know that they don’t like football. They tend to avoid me. You want to get better at football? This is a fun factory.”
Factory work really isn’t all fun and games, but when the finished product rolls out looking good, it becomes fun in retrospect. Jim Harbaugh and Michigan are seeing those results this fall after an offseason of change, self-examination and unstinting effort.
The Michigan players banded together, in players-only meetings, player-led workouts, a newly formed leadership council and a promise to each other that player accountability was the focus and it was uncompromising if anyone wanted to be part of this team.
Leadership from within had been missing in the past, but this group vowed to change that. Aidan Hutchinson, linebacker Josh Ross, wide receiver Ronnie Bell, running back Hassan Haskins, offensive lineman Andrew Vastardis and a handful of other veteran players knew they needed to be the ones to change the culture.
What happened in 2020 wasn't acceptable and they weren't going to let it happen again.
"I really give those guys a lot of credit for creating the environment that we have," Harbaugh said this summer. "And maybe we were beat up, you know, maybe we're the Rocky Balboa of college football, you know, beat up and angry, and I hope so. And I say good, you know, because that's what I've been seeing now."
It wasn't an overnight change or a switch that was flipped. It was a boiling point that caused this team to come together and, rather than dwell on what happened in 2020, decide that they could take this team into their hands and make a change.
"Don't flinch" became a mantra and a mindset led by the players.
It’s a huge clash between 7-0 rivals and you have to go all the way back to 1964 to find a matchup with both ranked in the top 10. Oddly enough, Jim Harbaugh went all the way back to 1964 to find his offense, highly effective considering it consists solely of 6-yard runs. Michigan fans are so grateful, they spend entire days whining about the passing game, as well as the quality of their sugar-free vanilla latte with soy milk.
Michigan is revisiting its throwback ways, when throwing the ball was considered a wimpy way to get rid of it. And Michigan State is back to its inspired ways, springing all sorts of tricks and tweets on unsuspecting opponents. Mel “Not Melvin” Tucker isn’t Mark De’Antoni’ primarily because his name is relatively easy to pronounce. But he has the motivational tactics down, including renaming Spartan Stadium the “Woodshed” in honor of former Spartan great Barney Woodshed (1935-39). Tucker also refers to Michigan as “the school down the road … east on 96, south on 23, watch out for deer.”
A bit wordy, but OK. We could use some spicy words because I’m not sure our state knows how to handle this sudden awakening. Fans historically enjoy ripping their hated rival but it’s hard to argue when both have declined to lose.
“You barely beat Nebraska!”
“So did you!”
Blink, blink.
Wow. Biting stuff.
We might finally learn what happens when Michigan has to pass
Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines found they suddenly had a lot to fix this past offseason. The offense had averaged just 18 points per game in four losses and was mostly starting over at quarterback. The defense had allowed 35 points per game, and Harbaugh decided to replace legendary coordinator Don Brown with a fresh face: former Baltimore Ravens assistant Mike Macdonald.
The changes have worked beautifully. The Wolverines have scored at least 31 points in six of seven games while also allowing 17 or fewer in six. They got sucked into a slog against Rutgers and needed some late heroics to win at snakebitten Nebraska, but they've still outscored opponents by an average of 23.4 points, and they're seventh in my SP+ rankings and fourth in ESPN's FPI.
The defense has been well-rounded and organized, but the offense might still be worrisome. The thunder-and-lightning duo of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum has combined for 1,331 rushing yards and 20 TDs, and quarterback Cade McNamara is completing 63% of his passes and almost completely avoiding sacks. They're mixing in tempo at times, which can multiply the effect of the run game. It's a fun attack. But McNamara's pass map to date is, to put it charitably, incomplete.
McNamara is 24-for-25 on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and he's 25-for-31 on passes thrown short and to the right. Outside of those zones, however, McNamara is just 43-for-90. He's just 7-for-22 on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield -- a stat noteworthy both for the low completion rate (32 percent) and the low frequency of attempts (barely three per game). While the Wolverines rank 30th in rushing success rate, they're just 104th in passing success rate. They run the ball as frequently as almost any non-triple option offense in the country; they openly avoid passing, and when they do it, it's short and to the right.
Opponents have almost certainly caught on to this tendency, but they haven't been able to do much about it to date. The run game is indeed strong, and if Michigan doesn't score, it's fine -- the defense is going to make sure opponents don't either. But what happens if State hits a couple of early big plays, forces Michigan to the air a bit more and pounces on McNamara's obvious tendencies?
Michigan is supposed to win this game. The Wolverines have been favored every year since Harbaugh arrived. Harbaugh hired Hart as his running backs coach this offseason, which adds another layer to this year's game. Hart might get heckled more than Harbaugh at Spartan Stadium.
It's one Michigan has to have a little more than Michigan State. This is the biggest game between the schools since those other top-10 showdowns, which were between 1959-64. Almost nobody remembers those now. Everybody is going to remember the result of this game.
Win, and Harbaugh will have a month to get ready for that yearly referendum against the Buckeyes, much like 2016 and 2018. Ohio State will be heavily favored when they come to Michigan Stadium. Nobody is really expecting the Wolverines to win that one, at least not right now.
Lose, and all those big-picture program questions return. Should Michigan turn the quarterback position over to freshman J.J. McCarthy? Why does Harbaugh have a losing record to Michigan State after seven seasons? Is that hot-seat talk applicable again?
Harbaugh likely will have an automated response for those, too.
But really, the questions will have answered themselves.
While the Wolverines have dominated the scoreboard for most of this rivalry's history, the Spartans have dominated the spread in recent years. Michigan State has covered 11 of the last 13 meetings and five of the last six in East Lansing. I think that trend continues this weekend. Michigan's rushing attack will cause problems for the Spartans defense, but the Wolverines have not been nearly as impactful in the passing game. It's hard to cover spreads as a road favorite when you can't move the ball through the air effectively.
Prediction: Michigan State (+4.5)
Bruce Feldman, The Athletic: Bruce Feldman’s Week 9 college football picks against the spread
Two top-30 run defenses will have to deal with good ground attacks. The Wolverines, I think, are better on both lines and that will be the difference in a tight game in East Lansing.
Michigan 17, Michigan State 14
Pick: Michigan State +4
Stewart Mandel, The Athletic: Stewart Mandel’s Week 9 college football picks against the spread
Can’t wait for this game. No idea who will win. These teams are pretty much the definition of evenly matched. But one stat keeps staring me in the face: Jim Harbaugh’s 2-12 record against top-10 teams. I’m pretty sure I picked the Wolverines to win quite a few of those. What’s the definition of insanity again?
Michigan State 34, Michigan 30
Pick: Michigan State +4
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