How the computers rank Michigan football after Week 6

In this weekly segment, we'll get away from human polls, go into the computers, and see what the various analytical-based rankings had to say about U-M each week.

Here's how good Michigan is, according to the computers.

ESPN FPI

What is FPI?

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Rank: 5th

Previously: 4th

Notable rankings: Georgia (3rd), Texas (4th), USC (10th), Penn State (12th), Minnesota (19th), Maryland (20th), Purdue (22nd), Wisconsin (27th), Illinois (38th), Michigan State (45th)

Like the AP Poll, Michigan drops a spot in the FPI down to 5th overall. Texas snuck past U-M this week following its demolition of FPI No. 34 Oklahoma. Illinois is surging, while Maryland remains a top-25 team despite a loss to FPI 22 Purdue. Penn State remained at 12.

SP+

What is ESPN SP+?

In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no sound predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Rank: 4th

Previously: 4th

Notable rankings: Ohio State (1st), Texas (5th), Oklahoma (18th), Minnesota (11th), Penn State (14th), UCLA (8th), Clemson (13th), Purdue (21st), Maryland (22nd), USC (24th), Iowa (29th), Illinois (34th), Michigan State (58th), Nebraska (67th)

SP+ is the only power-rating metric to hold Michigan at fourth after Week 6 in college football. Meanwhile, Ohio State is the new No. 1 (eyeballs). Penn State is a middle-of-the-pack team by all metrics after flirting with the 10th spot in the computer polls two weeks ago. The game against Northwestern -played in a rainstorm- heavily affected the Nittany Lions' computer stock. According to SP+, Michigan has the 8th-best offense, 9th-best defense, and 3rd-best special teams unit. Penn State is 46th, 6th, and 68th, respectively.

Sagarin

What (who) is Sagarin?

Jeff Sagarin made a rating and predictive system, then named it after, well, himself! It's an excellent way to look at ratings and determine scores in games by how closely or not close two teams rank. Sometimes, it can predict closer games in lopsided matchups or blowouts in closer games on paper.

Rank: 5th

Previously: 5th

Notable rankings: Texas (4th), Clemson (6th), Utah (7th), USC (10th), Penn State (15th), LSU (21st), Iowa (33rd), Maryland (37th), Michigan State (58th)

Michigan is 5th in Sagarin with an 87.57 rating, trailing Texas by 1.31. The Wolverines rank nearly six points below 3rd-ranked Georgia and almost 10 points lower than No. 1 Ohio State. According to Sagarin, which accounts for a 2.10 added number for home teams, the difference between Michigan & Penn State is 6.5 points. Vegas has the line at 7, and it's floated to 6.5 several times since opening. Funny how that works, huh?

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