Buy Or Sell: Michigan's 2020 Defense Will Finish Inside The Nation's Top 10
The Michigan Wolverines' football defense finished with a top-three unit nationally during each of defensive coordinator Don Brown's first three years on the job (2016-18), before slipping to No. 11 in the country last year.
Will the 2020 defense regain the form it had from 2016-18 and conclude with another top-10 unit, or will it resemble last year's crew that was a notch below Brown's first three defenses?
TheWolverine's Clayton Sayfie and Austin Fox provide their takes below.
Austin Fox — Buy
The fact that last year's Michigan defense finished No. 11 nationally (eight spots lower than it ever had under Brown) was not a surprise, when considering the amount of talent it lost from the 2018 unit.
The slight step back was expected and completely understandable. It's important now, however, for Brown to make sure his Wolverine defense returns to elite status. Though depth is a concern at several areas, the starting 11 (as a whole) is experienced enough and talented enough to at least be mentioned in the same breath as the first three units he produced in Ann Arbor.
Senior cornerback Ambry Thomas was the only starting defensive defection as a result of the season once being canceled, and while his loss is a blow, it doesn't take away from how good this unit can be.
Proven production and experience are present at all three levels of the defense, with senior defensive end Kwity Paye, junior defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and fifth-year senior defensive tackle Carlo Kemp fitting the bill along the front, redshirt sophomore Cam McGrone and redshirt junior Josh Ross in the linebacking unit, and redshirt sophomore cornerback Vincent Gray, senior safety Brad Hawkins and sophomore safety Daxton Hill meeting the criteria on the back end.
Though U-M is inexperienced with (likely) new starters in sophomore defensive tackle Chris Hinton and redshirt sophomore viper Michael Barrett, both are expected to be just fine in their new roles.
The starting position where genuine question marks reside is the cornerback spot opposite Gray, where a plethora of candidates could start. If position coach Mike Zordich's track record has taught us anything though, it's that we shouldn't worry about Michigan's starting cornerbacks heading into a season.
It's also worth noting how much Michigan's defense progressed last season under Brown following a slow start to the campaign. After they allowed 343.6 yards and 25.6 points per game through the first three contests, they clamped down significantly and yielded just 239.8 yards and 12.6 points over their next eight games from Sept. 28 through Nov. 23.
The last time two Don Brown-led defenses have finished outside the nation's top 10 in consecutive years was at Boston College in 2013 and 2014 (he has been a defensive coordinator every year since 2009).
Clayton Sayfie — Sell
In all four of Brown’s seasons at U-M, the Wolverines have finished top-11 nationally in total defense, with top-three finishes in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
2019 was the lone outlier, with U-M giving up massive amounts of yardage to Wisconsin (487), Ohio State (577) and Alabama (480) while also not being consistent enough during other stretches.
I believe U-M’s defensive line will be better, with three starters returning in ends Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye, and nose guard Carlo Kemp. Sophomore Chris Hinton emerged at the end of last season, and the former five-star recruit is expected to be more than solid this year at the three-technique.
The linebackers have a lot to prove, but should be a dynamic group, led by redshirt sophomore Cam McGrone, who has speed and playmaking ability, redshirt junior Josh Ross, a steady force in run fitting and a newcomer, most likely redshirt sophomore Michael Barrett, at the Viper spot.
The secondary has weapons at safety in sophomore Dax Hill and senior Brad Hawkins, but lacks experience at cornerback, following the departure of Ambry Thomas to the NFL Draft.
So what will the output of the group be when it’s all said and done?
It’s reasonable to expect more out of Brown’s unit in 2020 than what it was a year ago, especially since they have some more meat up front and shouldn’t be dominated at the line of scrimmage to the degree they sometimes were in 2019.
But does that mean they’ll finish top 10?
That’s an entirely different question, considering the Wolverines have one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing in arguably the toughest division in the sport in addition to divisional crossover games at Minnesota and against Wisconsin.
I'll say no, the Wolverines won’t tout a top-10 defense, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be good enough to win every game on the schedule. With the way college football is trending, U-M doesn’t need a top-10 unit to have a successful season. For one example, the national champion LSU Tigers were the home of the nation’s No. 31 unit in total defense in 2019.
The strength of U-M’s schedule is going to make it nearly impossible to shut down each opponent and post gaudy numbers week in and week out. But again, winning is what’s important, and Brown’s unit should set the Wolverines up for plenty of that in 2020, if a few questions (like cornerback and linebacker depth) are answered.
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