Buy Or Sell: Shea Patterson Will Stick In The NFL
Former Michigan Wolverines football quarterback Shea Patterson signed a free agent deal with the Kansas City Chiefs this past weekend, after going unselected in the April 23-25 NFL draft.
Everyone seems to have an opinion on the former U-M signal caller, especially regarding whether or not he'll be able to stick in the NFL.
TheWolverine's Clayton Sayfie and Austin Fox provide their takes on Patterson's pro future below:
Clayton Sayfie — Buy
Shea Patterson will stick in the NFL. Now, “sticking in the NFL” doesn’t mean he’ll be a star, or that he’ll play 15 years in the league. But, there’s a place for Patterson at the game’s highest level, and it might not even be with the Chiefs. Let’s break it down.
• His college career: He won games. Patterson was 19-7 in two years as a starter at U-M, and only lost one home game. In total, he started 36 college games in the SEC and Big Ten, showing he has lots of experience.
His stats were no joke. He completed 60.1 percent of his passes in his U-M career (and 60.3 percent for his entire college career), which is good enough for the seventh-best mark in school history.
He threw for 45 touchdowns in two seasons (68 for his college career). Patterson was U-M’s team MVP as a senior. None of this is to say that he doesn’t have his shortcomings, but it’s to point out that he’s no schlub.
He can play. He’s proven that much.
• What Patterson can be in the pros: First, let’s address the stigma that going undrafted means you can’t make it in the league. Plenty of players don’t hear their name called on draft day but are still able to stick around and make an impact.
He may not end up being Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, Tony Romo or even Jeff Garcia, but there’s plenty of examples of other quarterbacks who have made a name for themselves, to a lesser degree, after going undrafted.
Just last season, we saw undrafted Panthers QB Kyle Allen string together several good games. Undrafted former Purdue QB David Blough started five games for the Lions out of necessity.
New Lions backup Chase Daniel went undrafted, yet he’s entering his 11th year in the NFL and just signed a deal worth $5M in guaranteed money after making $10M over two years with the Bears.
There’s plenty of other recent examples of undrafted guys that have staying power, including notable names Brian Hoyer and Matt Moore.
• Let’s run with the Blough comparison: He started 36 career games at Purdue, completed 61.4 percent of his passes and threw for 34 touchdowns in his final two seasons (69 in his career). The stats are very similar.
Blough went undrafted and signed with the Cleveland Browns, but was traded mid-season as a rookie last year to the Lions. And then he got his opportunity. Patterson’s shot may not come with the Chiefs (though it might, we saw Patrick Mahomes miss games due to injury last season).
His chance may come early in his career like it did for Blough, and it’s been proven — the NFL is an opportunity league. Blough wasn’t extraordinary last season, but he did enough to have his name still in the conversation.
He had an opportunity to prove himself and now he’ll fight for a roster spot with the Lions or could end up somewhere else. He hasn’t “stuck” in the NFL just yet, but he’s got a chance, and we believe Patterson was a better college player than Blough.
• Patterson’s current situation: The Chiefs are a great organization to be a part of. Head coach Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minds — and coaches in general — of all time.
Mahomes is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL fresh off of a Super Bowl victory. Former U-M quarterback Chad Henne is there, who Patterson can learn from and compete with at once.
Patterson will learn and grow in Kansas City during his time there. And when he gets his shot there or someplace else, he just might do enough to keep himself on a roster for some time. Further development is needed, but that goes for most young quarterbacks in the league. Patterson isn't the next Tom Brady, but he could have a fairly long career in the pros — most likely as a career backup.
Austin Fox — Sell
The fact that Patterson wasn’t selected in this year’s NFL draft didn’t come as a surprise, but that it took him so long to sign with a team did. A plethora of athletes who go unselected are signed as undrafted free agents almost as soon as the draft ends, so the fact that it took Patterson a full week to land with the Chiefs makes one wonder if there’s a bit more to the story (a potential injury, perhaps).
It was well-known that Patterson injured his oblique in September and his performance suffered mightily because of it, but the injury was thought to have healed later in the year when the signal caller had an outstanding three-game stretch to close out the regular season (he averaged 351.6 passing yards per game against Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State).
Patterson's inconsistencies reared their ugly head once again in the Citrus Bowl loss to Alabama, however, when he missed several open receivers on deep balls and only connected on 17 of his 37 attempts (45.9 percent).
An underwhelming showing at the Senior Bowl in late January didn’t help his stock, with almost all prognosticators pegging him to go undrafted by that point. Patterson has several factors working against him in the NFL, with not only the aforementioned inconsistency and inaccuracy being two of the key components, but also his size.
He measured in at 6-1 at the NFL combine, with quarterbacks of that height seldom excelling at a high level in the league nowadays. The fact that he regressed from his junior to senior season at Michigan is another significant cause for concern, seeing as how his completion percentage went from an impressive 64.6 in 2018 to a dismal 56.2 in 2019.
Having four offensive coordinators in four years obviously wasn’t ideal for him, but that still doesn’t excuse the significant dip in completion percentage as a senior. Patterson's mobility and ability to extend plays with his feet could wind up keeping him on an NFL roster for a few years, especially in an organization like Kansas City where the coaching staff has worked wonders with quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
It’s hard to envision Patterson ever becoming a starter in the NFL though. He would have to make significant progressions in his game (accuracy, making the right reads, pocket presence, etc.), and again, failed to make any obvious advancements from his junior to senior season at Michigan.
He’ll have to work incredibly hard just to remain as a backup in the NFL, and would have to show an organization a lot more than he displayed as a senior at U-M. Does he have the ability to stick on an NFL roster for the next several years?
Absolutely, seeing as how he played outstanding and oftentimes mistake-free football as a junior at Michigan in 2018. We wish him nothing but the best moving forward and would love to see him excel in the NFL, but unfortunately, the odds are clearly against him.
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