ESPN's Mel Kiper — who many view as the most reliable NFL Draft prognosticator in the industry — released his debut 2021 mock draft this week, and only had one Michigan Wolverines football player coming off the board in the first round.
Kiper projected senior defensive end Kwity Paye to hear his named called at No. 21 by the Indianapolis Colts, which is slightly lower than where recent experts have been pegging him.
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"With [quarterback] Philip Rivers retired and [quarterback] Jacoby Brissett a free agent, we know the Colts will be in the quarterback market this offseason," Kiper began. "If they wait until the draft to make their move, they might have to trade up to get their guy.
"I don't see a fit here. Paye is a tough evaluation. He finished his four-year college career with 11.5 sacks and had only two last season. But we know that the draft is all about size/athleticism traits, even when the production doesn't match.
"And that's 6-4, 270-pound Paye, who is a gifted athlete. This is an upside pick, and the Colts have a hole at defensive end with Justin Houston hitting free agency."
Though Paye was the only Wolverine Kiper projected to go in the first round, it's worth noting he nearly had redshirt sophomore right tackle Jalen Mayfield going No. 30 overall to the Buffalo Bills.
Kiper instead projected the Bills to take Alabama running back Najee Harris, before noting "offensive line is a position to watch for Buffalo" and that he "thought about Mayfield here."
We noted above that Kiper's placement of Paye was a bit lower than other outlets had had him recently, and that was never more evident than in Pro Football Focus' and SportsIllustrated's latest mock drafts.
Ric Serritella of SportsIllustrated had Paye on the verge of the top 10 in his Jan. 25 projections, expecting the Providence, R.I., native to hear his name called at No. 12 overall by the San Francisco 49ers.
"The departures continue to mount on defense in San Francisco with the loss of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh this year, the trade of [defensive tackle] DeForest Buckner last year and what appears to be the inevitable release of [defensive end] Dee Ford, plus [defensive end] Nick Bosa injury woes to boot," Serritella wrote.
"Adding Paye will pay-off."
Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, tabbed Paye close behind, slotting him in at No. 14 to the Minnesota Vikings in his Jan. 25 mock draft. Palazzolo didn't have any other Wolverines going in the first round.
"It’s not a banner year for high-end edge rush talent, but Paye is the best of the bunch and could develop into a star," the Pro Football Focus writer explained. "He has incredible athleticism that he just tapped into last season, earning an 87.1 pass-rush grade [64 is considered average] on only 138 rushes.
"Adding Paye to the mix is a good start in revamping Minnesota's defensive line."
TheAthletic.com's Dane Brugler, finally was more in agreement with Kiper than with Serritella and Palazzolo in regards to Paye, tabbing the defensive end as the 19th best prospect in the draft in his Jan. 21 list of the 100 best prospects.
He also listed Paye as the second best edge rusher, behind only Georgia's Azeez Ojulari. Brugler did not make a prediction as to which team he thinks Paye will go to.
"Equally effective rushing the passer and stopping the run, Paye competes with athletic twitch and relentless energy to work around blockers and make plays in the backfield," TheAthletic.com writer noted.
"He needs to improve his anticipation and countering skills, but the talent suggests he is a long-term NFL starter."
Brugler also listed Mayfield as his No. 26 overall prospect, tagging him as the second best offensive guard in the draft.
"A college right tackle, Mayfield doesn’t have elite length, which will move him inside to guard on many draft boards," he explained. "Regardless if he plays tackle or guard, he is a balanced mover with the power to collapse the line, creating holes for the run game."
Serritella, on the other hand, was significantly lower on Mayfield than both Brugler and Kiper were, projecting the Grand Rapids, Mich., native to go 51st overall to Washington, which of course would be in the latter half of the second round.
Other than Paye and Mayfield, Serritella and Brugler each had one more Wolverine player on their respective top 100 lists, albeit a different one. The former pegged redshirt sophomore linebacker Cameron McGrone to come off the board at No. 96 overall to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (the second-last pick of the third round), while the latter tagged Ambry Thomas as his 83rd best prospect in the draft and the 10th best cornerback.
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