Michigan vs. Michigan State Preview, Lineup Breakdown, Prediction & More

Michigan Wolverines basketball (18-2, 13-2 Big Ten) is set to host Michigan State (14-10, 8-10 Big Ten) Thursday night at Crisler Center, the first of back-to-back matchups (U-M will travel to MSU Sunday). The Maize and Blue will be honoring their nine senior players and five senior managers for their last home game.

Michigan needs one more win (or an Illinois loss to Ohio State Saturday) to lock up the regular-season Big Ten title, while the Spartans, who have a sub-.500 conference record, are squarely on the bubble and fighting for their tournament lives.

MSU has won four of its last five games, including triumphs over top-five opponents Illinois and Ohio State last week. After getting blown out at Maryland Sunday, the Spartans regrouped by gutting out a six-point win over Indiana Tuesday night.

The Maize and Blue hadn't lost since Jan. 19 before embarrassed on their home floor in a 23-point loss to No. 4 Illinois Tuesday — a game in which they shot a season-low 34.7 percent from the field and got minimal contributions from key players.

The Matchup

The Spartans are without a true point guard that commands the team. The offense is run through junior forward Aaron Henry, who is on a tear in recent weeks, averaging 18.6 points per game over his last 10 outings, including five 20-plus point games, and fifth-year senior guard Joshua Langford, a 10.1-point per game scorer. The Spartans have the third-worst offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten during league play, shoot an effective field goal percentage of 45.8 (13th in Big Ten) and turn the ball over on 18.3 percent of their offensive possessions (13th).

But MSU has pulled out gritty wins as of late, and that's what it would likely be should the Green and White come out victorious in this one. Michigan is second in the Big Ten in rebounding margin but failed to contain Illinois on the glass in the last outing, allowing 12 offensive boards. That is an area in which MSU, a team that corrals 30.9 percent of its own missed shots, will try to exploit against Michigan's defense that tops the conference in efficiency and ranks fourth nationally.

The Wolverines' offense — though it struggled mightily against Illinois — scores 1.19 points per possession on average and ranks third in the Big Ten behind only Iowa and Ohio State. Michigan plays inside-out much of the time, with freshman center Hunter Dickinson leading the team in scoring but having plenty of scorers around him on the perimeter.

MSU head coach Tom Izzo rotates in five different players at the center spot and will likely send some help to avoid one-on-one situations with Dickinson.

The Spartans rank eighth in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency during league play and allow opponents to shoot 50 percent from inside the arc. However, they are stout guarding the three, yielding a 30.3 percent clip to Big Ten opponents (2nd in the conference), which will be key against the Wolverines, who shoot 38.8 percent from long range (2nd in Big Ten).

Below is everything you need to know ahead of the game, including notes on every significant player, key statistics, a Q&A with Michigan State beat writer Kyle Austin of MLive and more.

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Date: Thursday, March 4, 2021

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

Channel: ESPN (Stream: ESPN App)

On The Call: Bob Wischusen (play-by-play) & Dick Vitale (analyst)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) & Terry Mills (analyst)

Line: Michigan -12

Over/Under: 140

KenPom Prediction: Michigan 77, Michigan State 62

Clayton Sayfie Prediction: Michigan 74, Michigan State 61

#12 - Fifth-year senior guard Mike Smith (5-11, 185) — The Columbia grad transfer is averaging 8.6 points and five assists per game (second in the Big Ten), while shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 48.9 percent from deep (10th in the country) ... His three-point shooting clip of 60 percent in league play tops the conference.

#55 - Senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — Posting 8.8 points, 3.1 assists and three rebounds per contest ... Shoots 40.4 percent from the field and 35.5 percent from long range ... Is considered Michigan's best on-ball defender.

#21 - Sophomore guard Franz Wagner (6-9, 220) — Has scored 20-or-more points in three of his last six games ... Averaging 12.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game, while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor ... Shooting the three at 36.5 percent for the season ... His two-point field goal percentage of 59.3 percent in league play ranks sixth in the Big Ten.

#2 - Senior forward Isaiah Livers (6-7, 230) — Second on the team in scoring with 14.2 points per game ... Also adds 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest, while shooting 47.5 percent overall and 45.3 percent from three ... Draining 44.3 percent of his shots from deep during the Big Ten season, which checks in at fifth among conference players.

#1 - Freshman center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 255) — Checks in at fourth on Kenpom's national player of the year rankings ... Leads the team in scoring with 14.4 points per game, and adds 7.7 rebounds (leads the squad) per night, while shooting 60 percent from the field ... His two-point field goal percentage of 57.8 percent during league play ranks ninth in the Big Ten ... Blocks 1.6 shots per game, which is third in the conference.

Key Bench Players

#15 - Senior guard Chaundee Brown (6-5, 215) — Averaging 7.9 points and three rebounds per game off the bench in 19.6 minutes ... Is connecting on 47.2 percent of his overall looks and 39.1 percent of his attempts from deep.

#23 - Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing, Mich., native plays the four and five spot off the bench ... Averages 3.9 points and 2.1 rebounds per contest in 10.2 minutes and is shooting 54.5 percent from the field.

55 - Fifth-year senior forward Austin Davis (6-10, 250) — Averaging 5.8 points and 2.9 rebounds per game in 11.7 minutes of work ... Shooting 68.3 percent from the field.