Michigan enters the delayed 2020 campaign with modest expectations, replacing a number of skill position players and some outstanding defenders. Here are several questions heading into the season and how our staff sees it playing out.
1. What’s Michigan’s final record in the regular season? Overall?
CHRIS BALAS: 5-3, 6-3 Overall
There are 2.5 gimmes on this schedule in Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State, and then a gauntlet. The remaining road games (at Indiana, at Minnesota, at OSU) are tough, and Penn State and Wisconsin at home ... wow. This would be a tough schedule for the fourth-year quarterback (Shea Patterson, for example), let alone a first-year starter playing behind a new offensive line.
There’s also concern about the pass defense, and at least three of those remaining tough games feature potentially great passing offenses (at least very good).
U-M loses to Ohio State … the other two have yet to be determined, but then the Wolverines will rebound with a win in the crossover game.
One other thing ... this all assumes that no games will be canceled due to COVID. We’re not so sure.
RELATED: Staff Chemistry, NBA Infusion and Optimism on U-M Basketball
AUSTIN FOX: 6-3, including the Dec. 19 “championship week” showdown.
A loss at Ohio State on Dec. 12 appears to be inevitable, and games against Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin should be considered tossups. The Dec. 19 contest (whoever it comes against) will likely be viewed as a 50/50 game as well, capping off what is arguably the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: 6-2, 7-2 Overall
Michigan will lose to Ohio State and one of Minnesota, Wisconsin or Penn State to finish 6-2 in the regular season. Let's say the Maize and Blue win a rematch against Minnesota on Champions Week. The bowl game, depending on matchup, should be a toss-up, but the Wolverines are due, so let's chalk them up for a win and give them an 8-2 finish.
2. Which games on the schedule are better than 50-50 that Michigan wins?
CHRIS BALAS: The three mentioned previously (Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State) are very probable wins, and had better be. Minnesota is a 50-50 proposition — no crowd to deal with, but the first game for redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton as a starter — while U-M will be a slight favorite at Indiana. Watch out for the Hoosiers and quarterback Michael Penix.
It’s 70-30 that Michigan wins one of PSU and Wisconsin at home, and at OSU is a tough proposition.
AUSTIN FOX: Michigan State, at Indiana, at Rutgers and Maryland, which leaves half the schedule as tossups (or worse, in the case of the Ohio State game). Including the Spartans, Scarlet Knights and Terrapins in this category is a no-brainer, but the Hoosiers were tough to place here. A trip to Bloomington on Nov. 7 is going to be very difficult, but it’s still worth noting the Hoosiers haven’t beaten an excellent team in six years.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Every game except Ohio State. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana and Penn State will be challenges, but individually, those matchups are all more than winnable for Michigan. The Wolverines match up well against Minnesota's defense in game one, and have dominated Penn State and Wisconsin at The Big House in recent years. Indiana is a trap game, but talent should prevail in that one. That being said, I think Michigan will drop one before heading to Columbus, because they haven't yet proved to me they can get through their schedule unscathed before going up against the Buckeyes.
3. Who will be Michigan’s offensive MVP? Defensive MVP?
CHRIS BALAS: Junior receiver Ronnie Bell is one of the Big Ten’s more underrated players. Yeah, he dropped some balls last year, including one big one in the end zone at Penn State, but there’s a reason head coach Jim Harbaugh said he’d take 100 Ronnie Bells if he could get them.
Bell is the No. 1 receiver on this team, and frankly, he was last year. He has the desire, is a blocker in the old school mode (when Erik Campbell was here teaching) and will have a huge year.
On defense, the defensive ends are the strength of this team, and both will be playing on Sunday next year. Pick one — Kwity Paye or junior Aidan Hutchinson — and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if they shared it.
AUSTIN FOX: Junior receiver Ronnie Bell will be the offense’s MVP. He is the veteran of an incredibly young receiving unit, and arguably the best player on the offense as a whole. His 48 receptions and 758 yards both led the team last year, despite Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black all being a part of the group.
There are legitimately five players, meanwhile, who could take home the MVP award on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll give junior defensive end Aidan Hutchinson the slightest of edges, though, after he racked up 10 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks last year. He’s not just one of the best players on the team, but is also very popular with his teammates and coaches thanks to an infectious personality and an obvious love for Michigan.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton and sophomore defensive back Dax Hill.
If Michigan's offense is halfway decent like it's expected to be, Milton will be the most important player, and subsequently, the most valuable. Out of the skill positions, which always have the best chance to win an award like this, the signal caller taking home the hardware makes the most sense, with plenty of depth at running back and wide receiver to rotate and spread out the production a bit.
Hill taking home defensive MVP honors may be a bit of a bold prediction, but the former five-star recruit will be the most dynamic playmaker in the back end of Don Brown's attacking defense. In a sport where stopping the opposition's passing attack has never been more crucial, Hill will be all over the field and should have a tremendous season after getting his feet wet in 2019.
4. What are your expectations for Joe Milton as a starter, including numbers … yards, TDs, INTs, and completion percentage?
CHRIS BALAS: Based on the eight-game schedule and averaging around 230 yards per game (which seems reasonable), look for Milton to throw for 1,840 yards. This is higher than U-M’s last first-time starter (including previous stops) in Wilton Speight, but this offense is more up-tempo and passer-friendly.
Milton has never been a high-percentage guy. While he’s improved, 58 percent seems reasonable in his first season. We’ll figure 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions while he gets comfortable.
AUSTIN FOX: Plenty of ups and downs should be expected from Milton in his first year as a starter, with flashes of brilliance likely on display at times and crucial mistakes at others. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, though, when considering he has thrown just 11 career passes and has only taken a handful of snaps in close collegiate games. A best guess at his final statistics: 1,890 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: I'll preface by saying that we really don't know how Milton will respond to being a starting quarterback in the Big Ten until we see it, especially with the schedule being one of the toughest in the league and country. Practice is one thing; putting together winning performances on Main Street and in road venues is another completely. There will likely be some head-scratching moments, while we'll be awestruck by Milton's big arm at other times.
In year two under Josh Gattis, the Wolverines will be more comfortable in the scheme, which should include plenty of quick throws to get speedy weapons in space. That will help Milton's completion percentage. Of course, he can throw the deep ball, so don't be surprised to see some games in which the redshirt sophomore throws for 300-plus yards. Predicted season statistics: 58 percent completion percentage, 2,400 yards, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
5. Who is the second-best team in the Big Ten, assuming Ohio State is on top?
CHRIS BALAS: It’s Wisconsin, even without quarterback Jack Coan. The Badgers have a program, having won 10 or more games in eight of the last 11 years and 11 or more in six of those. Sure, they play in the weaker Big Ten West and they have to replace some outstanding skill position players, but they keep plugging in great offensive linemen and always have rugged defenses.
Penn State and Michigan both have plenty of talent and would be in the conversation.
AUSTIN FOX: Penn State, especially in the wake of Wisconsin senior quarterback Jack Coan’s foot injury that will keep him out indefinitely. The Nittany Lions have very few question marks or concerns with their starting 22, and have won 11 games in three of the past four years under head coach James Franklin.
Michigan is also a contender for the No. 2 spot and could claim it by season’s end, but it’s too difficult to project the Wolverines to finish there here in October with the uncertainty they have at quarterback and along the offensive line.
CLAYTON SAYFIE: Michigan.
I know many are choosing Penn State to finish second in the East, and Wisconsin, the favorites in the West, will always be a safe bet to finish near the top, but the Wolverines have the most upside of any team not named Ohio State. There's no better head coach in the league than Jim Harbaugh, and preparation and coaching will be more important than ever given the nature of the 2020 season.
If key questions — like quarterback, the second cornerback spot, etc. — are answered, Michigan should be contending for a spot in the top 10 when it's all said and done.
---
• Talk about this article inside The Fort
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel
• Listen and subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine
• Sign up for our newsletter, The Wolverine Now
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @Balas_Wolverine, @EJHolland_TW, @AustinFox42, @JB_ Wolverine, Clayton Sayfie and @DrewCHallett
• Like us on Facebook
