The No. 14-ranked Michigan Wolverines (9-3, 6-3 Big Ten) will take on No. 13 Alabama (10-2, 6-2 SEC) on New Year's Day in the Citrus Bowl.
Both teams are coming off losses to its primary rivals. The Wolverines fell at home to Ohio State, 56-29, at the end of November. That same day, the Tide lost at Auburn, 48-45, to close out the season.
Here's a look at how the two teams stack up against each other.
Comparison: ESPN's Football Power Index
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
Michigan: 12th nationally with a 20.6 FPI score
Alabama: 4th nationally with a 28.7 FPI score
Michigan
Overall: 14th in team efficiency with a score of 77.5
Offense: 22nd in offensive efficiency with a score of 69.4
Defense: 15th in defensive efficiency with a score of 74.8
Alabama
Overall: 4th in team efficiency with a score of 92.7
Offense: 3rd in offensive efficiency with a score of 94.0
Defense: 10th in defensive efficiency with a score of 80.6
Analysis: The Wolverines have been surging on offense in the second half of the season. They looked the part in the first half against Ohio State, before the second half collapse on both sides of the ball. The offense was hardly the main problem against the Buckeyes.
Defensively, U-M has fared well against average to good teams. Against the elite level talent, however, it has struggled. The Wolverines gave up 35 to Wisconsin and a whopping 56 to Ohio State. Many of the weapons Alabama has are similar to the ones the Buckeyes tout. That means adjustments will have to be made. We'd guess there will be some things that defensive coordinator Don Brown will shore up, but matching up against elite talent, sometimes it's about the 'Jimmys and Joe's' rather than the X's and O's.
Alabama is without its starting quarterback in Tua Tagovaiola, but backup Mac Jones has appeared in 11 games and has started three. He did throw two pick-sixes against Auburn in the regular season finale, but he's got weapons all over the field to connect with, when he does throw on time and on target.
The Tide's defense has been efficient, but its also given up a lot of points, including 48 to a good, not great, Auburn team. U-M should be able to score, but the question is if it will be able to score enough to win a shootout game.
Comparison: Football Outsiders' SP+ Ratings
The SP+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for SP+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives.
Michigan: 10th ranked with a SP+ rating of 21.8
Alabama: 2nd ranked with a SP+ rating of 32.6
Football Outsiders' FEI Ratings
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
Michigan
Overall: 14th ranked with a FEI score of .70
Offense: 25th ranked with an OFEI score of .62
Defense: 13th ranked with a DFEI score of .72
Alabama
Overall: 3rd ranked with a FEI score of 1.33
Offense: 1st ranked with an OFEI score of 2.17
Defense: 12th ranked with a DFEI score of .74
Analysis: Again, U-M's offensive efficiency numbers are a little deflated, since coordinator Josh Gattis and the offense picked up its play mid-way through the year. But, it still wasn't consistent enough against Penn State and Ohio State. There's not much margin in this one for mistakes such as dropped balls or missed assignments. Even though Alabama's defense is susceptible to the pass, especially without star cornerback Trevon Diggs, there's talent all over the place for the Tide, and they'll make some plays.
U-M's defense's efficiency numbers, on the other hand, may be inflated due to how dominant it has been against team's with less talent. The teams that have more horses have been able to take advantage of mismatches. Again, adjustments will only do so much when the receiving corps Alabama has are second to none in the nation.
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense
The Alabama defense ranks 2nd nationally in overall defense with an 93.9 grade, according to PFF. U-M's offense ranks 42nd in overall offense with a PFF grade of 79.9
A note on PFF grades — a single-game grade of about 64 is considered average. National rank includes all FBS teams.
