U-M (5-2, 3-2) is back in primetime this weekend, after falling short in State College last week against Penn State, 28-21. It's back to the Big House for the 19th-ranked Wolverines to take on rival 8th-ranked Notre Dame (5-1). Brian Kelly has never won at Michigan Stadium, coming in with an 0-3 record as the head coach at ND and Central Michigan. His Fighting Irish are fresh off a bye week. Kelly's teams are 11-1 after a bye during his tenure at ND.
U-M will need some help if it wants to get back in the Big Ten east race, and its College Football Playoff chances are all but done with two losses. Notre Dame is holding on to hopes for a second straight playoff appearance, and won't be able to get there without a win in Ann Arbor Saturday night.
We look at how the two teams rank in various analytics and what the match ups will look like under the lights on Saturday:
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Comparison: ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI)
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Michigan: 15th nationally with a 15.2 FPI score
Notre Dame: 11th nationally with a 20.6 FPI score
The Fighting Irish edge out the Wolverines in FPI (shown above) and is the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, according to ESPN Team Efficiency scores.
Michigan
Overall: 33rd in team efficiency with a score of 66.9
Offense: 55th in offensive efficiency with a score of 53.3
Defense: 20th in defensive efficiency with a score of 76.2
Notre Dame
Overall: 12th in team efficiency with a score of 82.5
Offense: 17th in offensive efficiency with a score of 73.4
Defense: 9th in defensive efficiency with a score of 81.1
Analysis: U-M was edged out by PSU in all of these categories last week coming into the game, despite dominating the game for most of the second half. U-M ran 82 plays to PSU's 54, controlled time of possession and out-gained the Nittany Lions 417-283.
That doesn't win football games, however, even if there is very strong correlation between those stats and the win or loss column (which there is). We will see if U-M can carry over its strong performance from the second half last week, and will have enough points to back it up, in this week's game with the Fighting Irish.
Comparison: Football Outsiders' FEI Rankings
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
Here's how the two teams match up:
Michigan
Overall: 29th ranked with a FEI score of .45
Offense: 59th ranked with an OFEI score of .16
Defense: 18th ranked with a DFEI score of .74
Notre Dame
Overall: 11th ranked with a FEI score of .81
Offense: 14th ranked with an OFEI .89
Defense: 20th ranked with a DFEI score of .67
Analysis: This is about what we'd expect at this point in the season. ND is a well-rounded team that ranks highly on both sides of the ball. U-M has struggled on offense, has had its struggles on defense but has showed significant improvement in both areas in recent weeks.
Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
