Jon Wilner is a Pac-12 reporter who was one of the first to break the story of the Big Ten, adding USC and UCLA starting in the 2024 season.

The move shocked the college football landscape, and rumors ran rampant about further expansion and who would be next. One of the most common reports was that Washington and Oregon were also looking to leave the Pac-12 and join the Big Ten. As things have started to calm down from the initial wave of rumors, Wilner reports a source is telling him the Big Ten may be standing pat for now and more concerned with a long-time target.

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The potential partnership between Notre Dame and the Big Ten is a decade-long discussion. The fit is obvious, but Notre Dame has long held firm in its commitment to remain independent. The acceleration of the expansion, and the potential future of super conferences, may eventually force Notre Dame's hand.

Currently, the Irish are members of the ACC for all sports except hockey (Big Ten) and football (independent). Notre Dame has an exclusive TV rights deal with NBC, which has provided the financial incentive to remain independent. During the pandemic, Notre Dame played in a modified schedule with the ACC. They currently have a rights deal with the ACC that says they can only join their conference through 2036. However, if the Big Ten, SEC, or even Big 12 were to take programs from the ACC, those deals would be in serious doubt.

Reports suggested the ACC and some of its member programs are preparing for what feels like an inevitable court battle. The Big Ten has been tied to AAU programs in the conference, including Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia. Hearsay suggests Clemson, Miami, and Florida State are also considering moving to a different conference.

What is fueling, stalling, and simply controlling all of the expansion talks is revenue from TV contracts. The SEC added Texas and Oklahoma when they negotiated a new TV contract with ESPN. The Big Ten is in advanced negotiations with Fox, and adding USC and UCLA will create more revenue for all members. USC and UCLA pursued joining the Big Ten because their revenue share will nearly triple in the Big Ten compared to what they received in 2021 with the Pac-12.

The Pac-12, Big 12, and, to an extent, the ACC are forced to operate in survival mode. The Big Ten is likely pausing expansion because adding Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, or any of the other rumored programs will not increase the money from TV partners, meaning just less money for each school. The Big Ten sees adding Notre Dame as the essential next step because adding the Irish would increase the conference's TV value. Adding a program like Stanford would be easier because of their rivalry with the Irish, USC, and UCLA.

Fox seems to be showing no interest in renewal with the Pac-12 after it helped orchestrate the move of two of the conference's biggest powers to the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is fighting to keep its members, potentially add more, and find a new more lucrative TV contract. They will need to fast because, reportedly, the Big 12 has targeted 4-6 programs from the Pac-12. Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, and potentially Washington and Oregon with their path to B1G seemingly paused.

The B1G and the SEC are currently the powers on the path to super conferences and do not appear to be in a hurry to continue their expansion. USC and UCLA have added the LA media market, increasing revenues for all members. They have added two traditional athletic powers, and both schools are members of the AAU as two of the best research universities in the country. They are letting the other conferences make their moves, which they believe will diminish Notre Dame's hopes to remain independent and be a lynchpin to their eventual move to the B1G.

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