Michigan Wolverines basketball sophomore guard Franz Wagner officially announced his departure from U-M earlier this week, concluding an outstanding two-year career in Ann Arbor.
Wagner is viewed as basically a lock to go in the first round of this year's NBA Draft, with recent prognostications only reinforcing that sentiment.
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Sam Vecenie — one of the most reliable and trusted NBA Draft experts in the industry — released his latest mock draft on TheAthletic.com today, and had Wagner coming off the board at No. 11 overall to the Indiana Pacers.
Vecenie had Wagner as by far the highest player from the Big Ten being chosen, with Illinois junior guard Ayo Dosonmu checking in next at No. 23 and Michigan State junior forward Aaron Henry also sneaking into the first round at No. 30.
"Wagner is an interesting 3-and-D prospect with real size at 6-9," Vecenie wrote. "His movement is terrific, with great lateral quickness. He can guard a variety of perimeter players on the ball, but his off-ball instincts are absolutely spectacular.
"He knows exactly where to be positionally, and his reactivity to get deflections is outstanding. The big question revolves around his shot, which comes and goes far too often.
"Sometimes, he looks like a legit 40 percent 3-point shooter in the future. Other times, he looks like a 30 percent guy and totally non-confident in the jumper mechanics. Whichever one he is will determine his career.
"If he becomes that high-level shooter, he’ll be a very high-level role player. If he doesn’t, he’s more in the vein of his brother, Moritz, as an end-of-the-rotation guy. The Pacers need someone like this within their core, a defense-first wing who can pass and be relatively low-usage for wings such as Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren to focus on scoring.
"The team has also struggled a lot on defense in the minutes and games that [big man]
Myles Turner has missed this season. This is another excellent fit on draft night if the Pacers end up with Wagner because he really fits from a positional perspective rotationally as well as a team-need perspective."
A recent mock draft from NBC Sports' James Ham April 25, meanwhile, had Wagner going just two spots later, at No. 13 overall to the Golden State Warriors. Sure enough, Ham also had Wagner as the highest selection from the Big Ten, with Dosonmu being the only other conference player he had going in the first round (No. 24 to the Houston Rockets).
"Wagner can score, rebound and he’s developing as a secondary distributor," Ham wrote. "He has a quick release and a clean stroke from long range, although his numbers don’t jump off the page.
"A high basketball IQ player, Wagner moves well without the ball and isn’t afraid to take the big shot. He has good size for an NBA wing, although he is an average athlete at best.
"The Warriors went for a different type of player in [center] James Wiseman last season and the transition hasn’t exactly been smooth. They like multi positional players that can shoot, pass and fit into their system.
"Wagner fits the bill and he has some upside."
CBS Sports' Gary Parrish, finally, was the least high on Wagner of the bunch, though he still had the 6-9 German going comfortably in the first round. Parrish projected Wagner to go No. 21 overall to the New York Knicks in his April 25 mock draft, and actually had Dosonmu going five spots higher at No. 16.
"Wagner is a wing with size who has great feel and is a good passer," the CBS Sports analyst wrote. "His 3-point shot must improve for him to meet expectations, but the fact that he shot 83.3% from the free-throw line suggests he's capable of being an above-average shooter in time."
The NBA Draft will take place July 29 in Brooklyn.
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