Michigan Wolverines football redshirt junior quarterback Dylan McCaffrey has had his name included with Heisman Trophy candidates this offseason. Of course, he needs to win the job as the starting signal-caller first, but if he does, CBS Sports college football analyst Tom Fornelli is a believer McCaffrey is indeed a contender for the prestigious award.
Fornelli pegged five players across college football that could be seen as good value bets for the Heisman, including McCaffrey at 75-1 odds. Except, there’s one caveat …
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“We don't know who Michigan's starting QB is going to be in 2020,” Fornelli wrote. “All we know is that Shea Patterson is gone, and Dylan McCaffrey and [redshirt sophomore] Joe Milton are competing to take his place. Based on Heisman odds, it seems sportsbooks are putting their money on it being McCaffrey. I'm approaching this from the standpoint of the dark-horse being ‘Michigan QB,’ whether that's McCaffrey or Milton.”
Fornelli used the comparison between national champion LSU and U-M. Both brought in new offensive coordinators a year ago in (passing game coordinator) Joe Brady and Josh Gattis, respectively. LSU just so happened to have the Heisman Trophy winner in Joe Burrow, while the Wolverines got off to a slow offensive start and had an inconsistent season overall on that side of the ball.
“Like LSU, Michigan broke in a new offense last season,” he said. “One meant to spread things out and modernize an attack that had grown a bit obsolete. Unlike LSU, Michigan's offense didn't hit the ground running, mostly because it didn't have a Joe Burrow leading the way. Odds are neither McCaffrey or Milton are Burrow, either, but heading into the second season of a new offense -- one that improved in the second half of last season -- I expect Michigan to be better on that side of the ball.”
Why does he believe the Maize and Blue will be improved offensively? A lot of it comes down to the receiving corps that he believes will be improved.
“I also expect Wolverine receivers not to drop so many passes,” Fornelli stated.
“Michigan's receiving corps had a drop rate of 12.6% last season. That ranked 121st nationally. Even worse, Michigan receivers had an on-target catch rate of 75.2% last year, according to Sports Info Solutions. That ranked 129th nationally, with only Buffalo being worse at 73.5%.
“This tells me two things. One is that Patterson was better than you thought. His on-target rate last season of 75.2% wasn't elite, but did rank No. 32 in the country. It was also a full 19% higher than his 56.2% completion rate. The second is that it will be hard for Michigan receivers to be worse in 2020.
"Michigan's two leading receivers last season, [rising junior] Ronnie Bell and [incoming senior] Nico Collins, were two of its biggest culprits. Bell dropped 16.9% of his targets and had an on-target catch rate of 70.8%. Collins wasn't much better, checking in with a drop rate of 11.1% and an on-target catch rate of 68.5%.
“Those two [Bell and Collins] need to be better in 2020. A lot better. There's no guarantee this will happen, but if they do improve, and perhaps get a little luckier, their numbers should rebound. If they do, that will go a long way toward helping McCaffrey or Milton as Michigan's QB.”
Other Big Ten ‘dark-horse’ Heisman candidates, according to Fornelli, are Purdue wide receiver Rondale Moore and Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan.
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