Five Key Questions For Michigan Football On Wisconsin Week
Michigan Wolverines football (1-2) will host the No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (1-0) on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. The Wolverines are coming off a loss at Indiana, while Wisconsin had two weeks off due to a COVID-19 outbreak.
Here are five key questions for Michigan ahead of this weekend's primetime matchup:
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Where is Michigan football's pass rush?
For the first time since 2007, a Michigan team has gone two straight games without registering a sack.
Defensive end Kwity Paye is the only one truly getting to the quarterback, with the senior checking in as the seventh-most productive pass rusher off the edge in college football (minimum 100 pass rushes) according to PFF’s pass rushing productivity formula, which combines sacks, quarterback hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer. In three games, Paye has two sacks, four hits and 13 hurries.
Paye's fellow bookend, junior Aidan Hutchinson, is now out indefinitely after suffering a leg fracture early in the game against Indiana, meaning fresh blood will be tasked with jump starting an already dismal pass rush.
Redshirt sophomore Taylor Upshaw and redshirt junior Luiji Vilain will step in and have to step up, but it's not the defensive line that's the only issue with the pass rush. Against Indiana, the Wolverines brought blitzes on nine throwing downs, with Hoosiers redshirt sophomore quarterback Michael Penix Jr. completing seven of those passes for 106 yards and one score.
Whether it's improvement on the defensive line in getting off blocks or bringing more rushers, something has to change to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable. And the coverage down field plays a part in it, too. It's on the coaching staff and players to piece the puzzle together and figure out a way to effectively get after quarterbacks.
Can Michigan football get the ground game going?
Michigan lost 20 yards on three sacks, which affects the rushing totals, but that doesn't change the fact that the run game was nonexistent last week, with the Maize and Blue averaging 2.2 yards per carry after taking out negative yardage from sacks. The week prior against Michigan State, the Wolverines averaged only 4.5 yards per attempt (4.6 if the one sack U-M allowed is not taken into account).
There's shuffling going on within the offensive line room, with redshirt sophomore left tackle Ryan Hayes and redshirt sophomore right tackle Jalen Mayfield out due to injuries, so some of the struggles are understandable, but the lack of success on the ground is making life difficult for redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton and the rest of the offense, which leads us to our next key question ...
Will Michigan football's third-down issues continue?
How is it making life difficult? Look no further than Michigan's struggles on third down.
In the two losses combined, Michigan has converted on an underwhelming 10-of-28 third downs (35.7 percent), but a closer look suggests the real problem comes on the two plays before that. In losses, Michigan is averaging a whopping 10.5 yards to go on third down — which means the issues are the penalties and negative yardage that put pressure on an inexperienced offensive line to give Milton, a first-year starting quarterback, time to make big plays down the field.
There's no simple fix, other than for the players to improve their execution and for the coaches, namely coordinator Josh Gattis, to stick with what is working (at times, the outside run game) to make sure the Wolverines don't get behind the sticks.
Which Badgers will miss the game and who will start at quarterback?
Wisconsin saw its last two games get canceled after a COVID-19 outbreak within the program. One of the 27 positive tests among staff members and student-athletes was redshirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz, who impressed in his first-ever start in week one against Illinois, completing 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards and five touchdowns.
Mertz tested positive on Oct. 25, meaning that, per the Big Ten's protocols, he is cleared to play on Saturday — and is expected to be. The question is just how ready he will be after limited practice time.
If he can't go, redshirt sophomore signal-caller Chase Wolf has been cleared (he also missed time due to COVID) and would likely be the guy. Wolf has appeared in four games and completed his only collegiate pass for two yards last year.
Outside of Mertz, Wisconsin's two-deep could be affected by players out with the virus, and Chryst confirmed as much this week, though he wouldn't name names.
“We’ve got a couple of guys who did stuff on special teams [against Illinois] who are getting work with the first two groups on offense or defense,” he said Monday. “I don’t know how it’s going to play out, but I think we’ve got some guys, because of the situation, both what they’re doing and how they are progressing and where the whole roster is, [will] get some snaps that three weeks ago weren’t probably in that position.”
With all the unknowns surrounding the Badgers' personnel, most Vegas sportsbooks have set the line cautiously, with the Wolverines being just 3.5-point underdogs despite their struggles the last two weeks and Wisconsin's flashes of brilliance in its opener, a 45-7 smashing of Illinois.
How many wins are left on the schedule?
Below is Michigan's remaining schedule along with the percent chance ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Wolverines to win:
Nov. 14 — vs. Wisconsin (12.7%)
Nov. 21 — at Rutgers (69.7%)
Nov. 28 — vs. Penn State (45.7%)
Dec. 5 — vs. Maryland (82.4)
Dec. 12 — at Ohio State (7.6%)
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Coming into the conference-only season, most of Michigan's games were not considered guarantee games, but many — if not all — assumed the Wolverines would easily take care of business against Michigan State and likely beat Indiana.
But with the team not looking nearly as solid as expected through three games, it's fair to wonder how many more wins are even out there — and if any are slam dunks, especially considering the Wolverines have the toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN's strength of schedule metric.
Maryland and Rutgers are the only two that could be considered 'layups,' though they're both much improved from a year ago and won't be cakewalks. Penn State at home is the next most likely win, with the Nittany Lions off to an 0-3 start, though as shown above, Michigan isn't even favored to win that one.
A mark of 3-5 heading into 'Champions Week' is a realistic possibility, though we wouldn't rule out an upset of either Wisconsin or Penn State — or even both. As much as we're down on Michigan right now, we've seen improvement throughout the season each year under Harbaugh, and the team just might surprise us, though it's hard to bet on it at this point.
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