Keys To The Game: Michigan Wolverines Football at Illinois

Michigan faces Illinois Saturday as more than a three-touchdown favorite in Champaign, having won two games in a row. The defense has been impressive in both contests, the offense in one (a 52-0 win over Rutgers).

A victory over the Illini won’t really move the needle either way unless this one is tight.

A loss, of course, would end the Wolverines’ already-slim Big Ten title chances. One outlet already has Michigan's chances at less than four percent to win the conference, with U-M sitting at 2-1 with a 35-14 loss at Wisconsin already hung on them. If Michigan somehow wins the rest of its Big Ten regular-season games, odds are the Badgers would await them in the championship contest.

We’re getting ahead of ourselves, of course. U-M must first beat a banged-up Illinois team before facing a loaded back end of the schedule, and maligned head coach Lovie Smith will have to do it with an injured quarterback corps. Former Wolverine Brandon Peters is the man if he’s healthy, but he struggled in last week’s 40-17 loss to Minnesota (5-of-10 passing for 32 yards with an interception) even before getting hurt.

"They're getting better. We're hopeful," Smith, always mum on injuries, said. "We'll need everyone to be able to beat a team like Michigan."

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Even then, it might not be enough. The Illini haven’t cracked 300 yards in either of their last two games, losses to Nebraska and the Golden Gophers, despite putting up 38 points on the Cornhuskers.

Michigan didn’t either in its win over Iowa, held to 267 yards of offense and hitting on only two explosive plays.

Here’s what the Wolverines have to do to get out of Champaign with a comfortable victory Saturday:

Make life miserable for the Illinois quarterbacks: Illinois is tied for 110th out of 130 schools in sacks allowed per game, giving up 3.0 per contest. Michigan is coming off an eight-sack performance against a solid Iowa offensive line, and it could have been worse. U-M badgered quarterback Nate Stanley throughout last Saturday’s contest and added a number of hurries in addition to the sacks.

As defensive coordinator Don Brown noted, Stanley is capable of picking teams apart if given time. He was going to make sure that didn’t happen. The Illinois quarterbacks might not have that same ability, and we have no idea which ones will play. Neither does quarterbacks coach Rod Smith, a former U-M assistant under Rich Rodriguez.

“We’d better have two quarterbacks ready because you never know what's going to happen," Smith said in his weekly meeting with reporters. "We have a group of five in my room. Depending on who can get reps and who won't, we'll divvy it up then. Brandon Peters and [freshman] Isaiah Williams both were on the injury list, I guess, so you’ve got Matt Robinson, Coran Taylor and Cam Miller.”

Robinson at least moved the offense a bit in last week’s game, and he can move himself. They’ll run more read-option stuff with him if he is in the game, Smith said — something else to watch.

But this should be a matchup nightmare for the Illini against a very fast Michigan defense.

Run the football well on early downs … and every other down: Michigan’s ground success this year has been sporadic, at best. There’s been only one carry over 18 yards this season — one — and that was in the opener, a 41-yarder by freshman Zach Charbonnet against Middle Tennessee State.

This Illinois team ranks 98th nationally in run defense, giving up 183.2 yards per game on the ground and 4.11 per carry. Minnesota’s Rodney Smith rushed for 211 yards against the Illini last week and made it look easy at times.

Michigan can’t afford to be one-dimensional offensively in the back half of the schedule if it wants to remain in contention for a Big Ten championship. This is the game to get up early and work on the running game. Part of that is demanding the same effort on every snap that we’ve seen out of Brown’s defense the last two weeks.

No plays off — on either side of the ball.

Make the Illini throw: Illinois has some capable backs, led by 2018 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Corbin. He averaged 8.5 yards per carry en route to All-Big Ten third-team honors (media) last season and is at 6.6 this year, including several explosive runs. He’s had a 66-yarder as his long this year, notched an 80-yarder last season and the 5-10, 200-pound burner is a threat anytime he gets the ball.

He also enters the game as Pro Football Focus' No. 3-ranked running back in the entire nation (among those with at least 40 attempts), boasting an elite grade of 87.2.

Corbin doesn’t just do it against the patsies, either. He averaged 7.9 yards per rush last year vs. Penn State, put up 100 and 11.1 per carry against Wisconsin, and posted a 6.0 clip against Northwestern’s stout front a season ago.

U-M could be without junior end Kwity Paye in this game, a guy Brown called perhaps the best spread offense run stopper in the country. One recipe to keep this game close — allow Corbin to go off and shorten the game with ball possession.

Simply put, Illinois is a mess. The Illini lost at home to Eastern Michigan with a healthy Peters (34-31 on Sept. 14), were terrible on both sides of the ball in a loss at Minnesota (40-17 last week) and just haven’t put it together under Smith.

The offense is 6 for 29 on third downs in the last two games against average-at-best defenses.

We have faith the U-M defense will do its part Saturday. The offense, however, still needs to prove it can be efficient against anyone better than Rutgers. This would be a great time to get it humming with a loaded back half of the schedule on tap, starting next week at Penn State.

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