Michigan Football 2021 Schedule Countdown: No. 5 — Northwestern
Here is part eight of a 12-part series in which we count down Michigan Wolverines football's 2021 strength of schedule from its easiest game (No. 12) to its most difficult (No. 1).
Checking in at No. 5 is Northwestern, who Michigan will square off with Oct. 23 inside The Big House.
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Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (16th season) — 106-81 (56.6 winning percentage)
Recruiting Rankings:
2017 — 56th nationally
2018 — 60th
2019 — 49th
2020 — 53rd
2021 — 53rd
2020 Record: 7-2 (6-1 in Big Ten play)
Northwestern engineered an incredible turnaround from 2019 to 2020. The Wildcats went 3-9 in the former, but followed it up with a Big Ten West Division title in the latter. A 5-0 start to the season was highlighted by a win over No. 10 Wisconsin Nov. 21, a juncture in which it looked like Northwestern might head into the Big Ten title game undefeated.
Fitzgerald's club suffered an upset loss at Michigan State Nov. 28, however, marking the program's only regular-season setback. The Wildcats gave No. 4 Ohio State all it could handle in the Big Ten championship Dec. 19, before eventually dropping a 22-10 contest that was much closer than the score indicated.
The campaign was capped off with an impressive 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Two of the primary reasons Northwestern was so stout in 2020 was due to the arrival of transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey from Indiana, and a stifling defense that finished the year ranked 22nd nationally.
Did You Know?
• Fitzgerald is the second-longest tenured coach in the Big Ten (2006) behind only Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, who has been the head man in Iowa City since 1999.
• Northwestern has eight Big Ten titles in its history, but only three have come since 1937 — 1995, 1996 and 2000. Fitzgerald was a player on the 1995 and 1996 squads, leading his Wildcats to a Rose Bowl appearance in '95 (a 41-32 loss to USC).
• Michigan's all-time record against Northwestern is 58-15-2, with the Wildcats' last win in the series coming in 2008. Even though U-M has won six in a row against Northwestern, four of the last five victories have come by an average of just 4.7 points, including overtime contests in 2012 and 2013. The lone blowout since 2012 occurred in 2015 when Michigan won 38-0.
2021 Preview
A lot of the narrative revolving around Northwestern's 2021 squad surrounds South Carolina transfer quarterback Ryan Hilinski. He threw for 2,391 yards and 11 touchdowns in two seasons with the Gamecocks, most of which came during his freshman campaign of 2019.
He is strongly expected to win the Wildcats' starting job once he arrives. Offense as a whole was a weakness for Northwestern last season (finished 93rd nationally in yards per game), but the club is returning two key rushers at running back in sophomore Cam Porter and redshirt sophomore Evan Hull.
Porter's 333 yards and five rushing touchdowns both led the team last season, while Hull added 209 yards and averaged an absurd 8.4 yards per carry. Northwestern's receiving unit, however, is depleted following a season in which the passing attack ranked a dismal 95th nationally.
The Wildcats lose their top four pass catchers (in terms of receiving yards), and don't return anyone who had more than 67 yards in 2020. Redshirt sophomore Bryce Kirtz (six catches for 67 yards), senior tight end Charlie Mangieri (seven receptions for 53 yards) and junior Malik Washington (five grabs for 51 yards) are the top returning targets in the passing game.
A Wildcat defense that was elite against the pass last year (19th nationally) and respectable against the run (46th) loses four players who earned some form of All-Big Ten honors at season's end, in linebackers Paddy Fisher (unanimous first teamer) and Blake Gallagher (unanimous second teamer), cornerback Greg Newsome (unanimous first-team pick), and defensive lineman Eku Leota (third teamer from the media).
It does, however, return redshirt sophomore safety Brandon Joseph, who was voted a first-team AP All-American after tying for the nation's lead with six interceptions. Key defenders in fifth-year senior linebacker Chris Bergin (78 tackles), junior cornerback A.J. Hampton (26 tackles and five pass breakups) and redshirt sophomore cornerback Cameron Mitchell (18 tackles and five pass breakups) also return.
Despite their returns, Northwestern's defense as a whole will have a revamped look, with five of the team's top eight tacklers from 2020 having moved on.
Why No. 5 In The Countdown?
Fitzgerald's Northwestern squads are almost always a tough out, with the 3-9 campaign in 2019 being the lone exception in recent years. The Wildcats had a winning record every season from 2015-18, winning 10 games in 2015 and 2017, and nine in 2018.
Though they're breaking in a new quarterback following Ramsey's departure and will have to revamp the defense a bit, 2021 Northwestern should nevertheless be a tough, competitive team.
U-M has had Fitzgerald's number since he's been the head man in Evanston, winning at the last minute or in overtime on numerous occasions (2012, 2013, 2018, etc.). The matchup will take place on Oct. 23 after a bye week for Michigan, which isn't necessarily a good thing (U-M has come out of bye weeks flat more often than not in recent seasons).
If this game were in Evanston, it'd probably be fair to expect Northwestern to win. Because the game is at The Big House, though, it's feasible to give the Maize and Blue a slight edge.
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