Michigan "is at a crossroads under Jim Harbaugh," some media outlets have written in the days leading up to the opener at Notre Dame.
Others are framing Saturday night’s contest as a must-win for Harbaugh, who they’re quick to point out is 1-5 in rivalry games at U-M. Never mind that he should be at least 3-3 — only a fluke dropped punt returned for touchdown in a 2015 loss to Michigan State and some sketchy calls in a loss at Ohio State in 2016 have prevented that — everyone seems to have expected more from Harbaugh through three years.
This year’s Michigan team is perhaps the most talented Harbaugh has had since his arrival, and there are high expectations. Still, few predict U-M to win the Big Ten East Division, let alone the conference championship. None of 28 writers who voted in the annual Cleveland.com Big Ten preseason poll picked the Wolverines to win it, and only two picked U-M to win the East.
The season is not made or broken in one game, and all goals would still be on the table with a loss. Still, we should find out plenty about this team in U-M’s game with the Irish. Here’s what the Wolverines need to do to win:
Maintain rush lanes on defense and don’t let Brandon Wimbush escape the pocket: The Notre Dame quarterback ran for 803 yards and 14 ouchdowns last year and is an escape artist capable of making things happen when a play breaks down. The Michigan defense was stout last year, but that was one area in which it was exploited at times. Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke, for example, carried 15 times for 61 yards, including a 14-yard touchdown scramble, and few were designed runs.
Wimbush has a good arm and can throw the ball, but he’s not considered a great passer. He completed only 49 percent of his passes a year ago and is sporadic throwing the ball. The Michigan defense needs to contain him and get to him or make him throw when he drops to pass.
Protect Shea Patterson: It’s well known by now that the junior Ole Miss transfer is like Wimbush in his ability to escape pressure, but he’s not Michael Vick. He was sacked 19 times last year, and his best rushing game was eight yards (on seven carries) in a win over Vanderbilt. He also threw multiple picks in three games, including a trio in two losses, primarily when he was under duress.
Last year’s offensive line woes at U-M were directly responsible for two quarterbacks ending up in the hospital and missing starts. Losing former signal-caller Wilton Speight against Purdue essentially ended any chance of a title, and while the Wolverines are in better shape this year with a deeper, more prepared group of quarterbacks, Patterson is the guy who can lead this team to a championship.
We’ve heard good things about offensive line improvement this fall, and the interior seems to be in good hands with junior Ben Bredeson, sophomore Cesar Ruiz and junior Mike Onwenu. Redshirt junior left tackle Jon Runyan Jr. and (we think) fifth-year senior Juwann Bushell-Beatty at right tackle will be X-factors in this game. They need to play well against a talented front seven.
Win the turnover battle: Or at the very least, don’t lose it.
When Michigan loses at Notre Dame, turnovers are usually involved. One of the very few fumbles sure-handed receiver Jason Avant ever coughed up came in 2002, and we could go down the list … running back Kevin Grady inside the 5-yard line in 2008, when the Wolverines were threatening to make it a one-score game in the second half; quarterback Denard Robinson’s four picks and a fumble in 2012, etc.
The Wolverines coughed the ball up six times in 2008 and lost 35-17. Robinson and Co. only lost by a touchdown. If this group protects the ball and plays to the strength of its defense, it wins.
The Breakdown: This game is probably more important to Notre Dame’s title hopes than Michigan’s, given that the Irish are playing at home and don't have the schedule U-M does. Michigan will still have several opportunities against what’s been called the nation’s third-toughest schedule, so a setback to the nation's No. 12 team wouldn't be devastating in that respect.
Michigan seems to have the advantage in two key areas — on defense behind a group that should be stifling and at quarterback with the former five-star and No. 1 quarterback recruit Patterson. Better U-M teams have lost in South Bend to worse Irish teams, however.
This should be a tight game.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 23, Notre Dame 16
The Wolverines are the better team and have one of the country’s best defenses on paper. Can the offense do enough to win a big game on the road?
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 23, Notre Dame 16
Shea Patterson finds out about his new best friends — new offensive line coach Ed Warinner, some veteran offensive tackles and especially the guys that take the field when he leaves it.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 31, Notre Dame 20
I really think Michigan has what it takes to go on the road and beat Notre Dame this year. Jim Harbaugh needs a marquee road win in the worst way, and this needs to be it. Michigan’s defense isn’t going to give up very many points, so if the offensive line is improved even a little bit then Shea Patterson and all of his weapons should score enough to get a W.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Notre Dame 21, Michigan 17
This has the makings of a low-scoring affair, with both defenses appearing to be substantially better than the respective offenses they’re going up against. We’ll finally get a chance to see how much Michigan’s offensive line and quarterback play have improved since last season. The question now becomes whether or not the Wolverines are actually able to put enough points on the board to grab a big road win.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 21, Notre Dame 17
After 12 years of failing to beat a ranked team on the road, Michigan’s 2018 team finally gets it done.
TheWolverine's Latest Coverage of Fall Camp:
• Jim Harbaugh on Shea Patterson: 'He Does so Many Things Well'
• News and Views: Pep Hamilton on the Offense
• By the Numbers: U-M can Snap Road Losing Streak to Ranked Teams at ND
• Wolverine Watch: Getting up for the Season
• Pep Hamilton has High Praise for Many on Offense
• Videos: Hamilton, Mattison Preview Notre Dame
• Mattison Talks Starters on the D-Line, Gary's Health
• Winovich Knows the Necessary Adjustments Have Been Made
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