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Gameday Central: Michigan Wolverines Football At Illinois

The Michigan Wolverines hit the road for Champaign, Ill., and a tussle with the Fighting Illini Saturday.

On paper — and in just about every other measure possible — it shouldn't be a close one.

However, if there is one thing the Illini have done best this year, it's force turnovers. And, of course, if there's one concern bigger than the others about the Wolverines this year, it's ball security.

Entering the game, Illinois is tied for 10th in the land with an average turnover margin of plus-1.0/game. Only one team in the country has recovered more fumbles than the Illini defense's eight — the nine loose balls they have caused is also tied for second in the land — while they have forced a total of 12 turnovers on the year (tied for 10th).

Meanwhile, U-M's 14 fumbles through five games are tied for 126th out of 130 teams. They have lost only half of them, but the seven fumbles lost is tied for 122nd nationally. The 11 turnovers Jim Harbaugh's offense has committed is tied for 105th.

It seems there's one way to allow Illinois to hang around in this game, and that's for the Wolverines' fumblitis to rear its head once again and the Illini to continue forcing mistakes like they have up to this point.

Michigan football defensive end Kwity Paye (left) and defensive tackle Michael Dwumfour have helped lead the way for a front that has improved as the year has gone on.
Michigan football defensive end Kwity Paye (left) and defensive tackle Michael Dwumfour have helped lead the way for a front that has improved as the year has gone on. (Brandon Brown)
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Game Information: No. 16 Michigan Wolverines Football at Illinois

Kickoff: 12 p.m.

TV: ABC

On The Call: Dave Pasch (play-by-play), Greg McElroy (color) and Tom Luginbill (sideline)

Radio: Michigan/IMG Radio Network (950 AM in the Detroit Area; SiriusXM channel 83) with Dan Dierdorf, Jim Brandstatter and sideline reporter Doug Karsch, a regular contributor to TheWolverine.com.

Line: Michigan is between a 23.5- and 24-point favorite at most books (via VegasInsider.com).

Get a free 60-day trial to TheWolverine.com with promo code Blue60

Weather Forecast

Nothing but sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with an expected temperature at noon of 51 degrees, according to weather.com. It should continue to get warmer as the game continues, with a high of 56 degrees.

The Player The Will Decide The Game

For Illinois — Fifth-year senior running back Reggie Corbin: Especially with starting quarterback Brandon Peters questionable for the game (the Illinois insider we talked to noted Peters was "likely out") the offense will rely on the 5-10, 200-pounder even more than usual.

Corbin is ranked by Pro Football Focus (PFF) as the nation's six-highest-graded back (minimum 40 attempts) with an offensive grade of 86.1. The only back on the U-M schedule with a higher rating is No. 1 Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin, who ripped the Wolverines for 203 yards and two scores on 23 tries (8.8-yard average).

Corbin is on pace for nearly 1,150 rushing yards, but was bottled up by Minnesota pretty well last week — he ran 14 times for just 68 yards, a clip of 4.9 yards per rush, his first time this year under 6.0.

The last time he was held under that figure was against Iowa last November, when he was limited to just one carry. Prior to that, it was versus Purdue Oct. 13, giving him a streak of eight straight games with a 6.0 average or better that was broken Saturday, which was also the first time this fall he has failed to find the end zone.

For Michigan — Redshirt junior defensive tackle Michael Dwumfour: The Michigan front has stepped it up lately, and they will need to come up big again playing an offense that is likely to feature the run game.

Illinois left guard Kendrick Green is graded by PFF as the nation's No. 4 guard so far among players with at least 300 snaps played (77.9 overall grade), center Doug Kramer checks in sixth at his position (78.2) and right guard Richie Petitbon ranks 44th (68.7). That will make the interior matchup even more important than usual, and the spot opposite of senior Carlo Kemp, who has been playing outstanding, needs to be good.

The Michigan defense has improved greatly since Dwumfour has returned from injury. During the three games he was out, the Wolverines gave up an average of 208.6 rushing yards per game. In the last two games with him back in the lineup, they've given up a total of just 49 yards on the ground — and that included against an Iowa ground attack that was top 30 in the country coming into the game and netted just one rushing yard.

Dwumfour has posted a mark of at least 73.9 in the last two games (64 is considered average) while playing 22 and 39 snaps, respectively.

Pregame Reading

• Inside The Fort: Oct. 11

• Staff Predictions: Michigan Wolverines Football At Illinois

• Previewing Illinois With A Fighting Illini Insider

• The Tale Of The Tape: How Michigan And Illinois Match Up

• Keys To The Game: Michigan Wolverines Football at Illinois

• News & Views: Sherrone Moore Talks Progression Of Freshmen Daxton Hill, Erick All

• What They're Saying: Michigan Wolverines Football Heading Into Illinois

• Michigan Wolverines Football Thoughts: Don Brown Won't Change — Much

• By The Numbers: Saturday Was U-M’s Best Performance Vs. The Run Under Brown

• Moore Provides Update On McKeon, Pleased With Eubanks' Blocking Progression

• Don Brown Talks Wisconsin To Iowa Improvement, Glasgow On Goal Line, More

• Wolverine Watch: Seeking A Logic-Defying Finish

• Shea Patterson Thinks U-M Offense Will ‘Take Off’

• Notebook: Lovie Smith Talks Brandon Peters, U-M

News & Views: On Harbaugh’s Offense, More

• Harbaugh Says The Iowa Victory Was A 'Character Building' Type Of Win

• Inside the Numbers: Michigan's Offense Running Out of Time

• Monday Injury Update: Several Still Injured For Illinois

Pregame Listening

• Pregame Podcast: Van Bergen And Borton

• Maize And Blue Breakdown

• Doug Skene with Chris Balas, Pre-Illinois

• Doug Karsch With John Borton

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